NBA fans have been primed for a chaotic summer by insiders like Shams Charania, Brian Windhorst, and others. All-NBA players are reportedly on the trade block. Former lottery picks are headed to restricted free agency. The second-apron era is pushing front offices into tough decisions.
Jayson Tatum’s injury has left the defending champions facing a retool, and the Eastern Conference is suddenly wide open. In the West, the race to catch the Oklahoma City Thunder is creating pressure across the board.
Will the offseason deliver on the hype? Here are 10 bold predictions for what lies ahead.
- Giannis Stays Put
There has been no credible reporting that Giannis Antetokounmpo wants to leave Milwaukee. The Bucks are likely out of contention for at least one season due to Damian Lillard’s injury, but Giannis has shown loyalty when others would have forced a move.
He already has a championship, two MVPs, and a place among the top 20 players in NBA history. This storyline has surfaced before. He may take the Dirk Nowitzki path and finish his career with one team. That would be a rare and remarkable legacy choice.
- Grizzlies Trade Morant
The Grizzlies continue to express support for Ja Morant, but there are signs of stagnation. Memphis has just one playoff series win during Morant’s six-year tenure. His numbers declined this season, the jumper still has not improved, and availability remains a concern even when healthy.
It would be a sell-low scenario, but change may be necessary. A swap involving Zion Williamson or a retool centered on Jaren Jackson Jr. and Desmond Bane could be on the table. This franchise needs a new direction.
- Myles Turner Lands $30 Million Per Year
Myles Turner has gone from trade candidate to franchise cornerstone during Indiana’s Finals run. The Pacers are reportedly open to paying the luxury tax, and Turner’s importance to their system has never been clearer.
There will not be much competition in free agency due to limited cap space around the league. Still, Turner has earned a substantial raise. A multi-year deal worth more than $30 million annually would not be a surprise, even if it comes in the form of a shorter-term pact.
- Pistons Pursue a Restricted Free Agent
The Detroit Pistons are projected to have over $30 million in cap space if they move on from Malik Beasley, Tim Hardaway Jr., and Dennis Schröder. That flexibility could put them in play for a restricted free agent.
Players like Quentin Grimes, Jabari Smith Jr., Shaedon Sharpe, Jonathan Kuminga, and Santi Aldama all fit alongside Cade Cunningham, Ausar Thompson, and Jalen Duren. The Pistons should be aggressive in chasing upside talent that aligns with their timeline.
- Rockets Trade Jabari Smith Jr.
Jabari Smith Jr. was once a central piece of the Rockets’ rebuild. This postseason, he came off the bench and saw his role shrink. His development has stalled, and Houston may look to capitalize on his remaining value.
Smith still brings shooting and defensive versatility. He could help a young team looking to grow or become a key piece in a larger trade. A fresh start makes sense for both sides, whether Houston is targeting a star or accumulating more assets.
- Celtics Keep Jaylen Brown
There will be rumors around Jaylen Brown all summer, especially with Boston looking to trim salary. But moving the 2024 Finals MVP is easier said than done. His max contract is massive, and his fit as a first option is questionable for most contenders.
Despite those concerns, Boston will likely keep its core intact. The Tatum-Brown duo has made the Celtics perennial contenders. Ownership may delay any significant changes until the roster can fully reset. Brown will be shopped, but it would be shocking if he is dealt this summer.
- Jrue Holiday Heads West
The Celtics need to shed salary, and Jrue Holiday is one of the most likely trade candidates. Kristaps Porziņģis has a more complicated injury history and less trade value. Holiday, while still effective, will be 36 by the time Tatum returns to full strength.
His contract pays him $105 million over the next three seasons. That limits the market, but not entirely. The Clippers have already been mentioned. Teams like the Nuggets, Warriors, Lakers, and Timberwolves could also make sense depending on how the offseason unfolds.
- Kevin Durant Gets Traded to San Antonio
Kevin Durant’s name has surfaced in trade rumors again. The price to acquire him is lower than when Phoenix brought him in, and many contenders are weighing whether to take the plunge.
Reports suggest the San Antonio Spurs are Durant’s preferred destination. With De’Aaron Fox already in place and Victor Wembanyama emerging as a superstar, the Spurs are ready to make a splash. Adding Durant alongside Fox and Stephon Castle could create a short-term juggernaut. San Antonio would still have assets left to make future moves.
- Kuminga Finally Leaves Golden State
The Warriors and Jonathan Kuminga have been circling a breakup for years. That time may finally come this offseason, with Kuminga set to enter restricted free agency.
He remains a talented scorer with real upside, but his fit in Golden State has never been clean. The presence of Jimmy Butler and Draymond Green only makes things more complicated. A sign-and-trade could allow the Warriors to bring in a win-now piece like Cam Johnson, Lauri Markkanen, or Jerami Grant.
- Hawks Trade Up and Do Not Extend Trae Young
Trae Young is eligible for a max extension this summer, but the Hawks should be hesitant. Committing $229 million to a player with defensive limitations and a heliocentric offensive style is a massive risk.
Atlanta is reportedly shopping the 13th and 22nd picks in an effort to move into the top 10. That suggests the front office is planning for life beyond Young. With young talent in Dyson Daniels, Jalen Johnson, and Zaccharie Risacher, the Hawks may be ready to pivot.
Final Thoughts
This NBA offseason is shaping up to be one of the most unpredictable in recent memory. Between injury shakeups, cap constraints, and star movement, every front office faces difficult decisions. Whether or not all of these bold predictions come to pass, the chaos is coming. Expect fireworks.
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