The Big 12 was a big surprise in 2024, as Arizona State came out of nowhere to win the conference and push Texas in the playoffs. This year, it’s harder to pin down the top team, thanks in part to the unpredictable way things played out last season.
Few teams are without at least some shot at making a push, though there are a couple of clear bottom dwellers. Inter-conference matchups will be huge in the Big 12 this year, as many 7–10 win-caliber teams fight for pivotal victories in hopes of a playoff berth. Let’s take a look at who’s most likely to make that happen.
1. Kansas State Wildcats
2024 Record: 9-4 (5-4)
2025 Projected Record: 10-2 (9-1)
It’s never easy losing your star QB and pivoting over an offseason, but the Wildcats may have found a gem last year in Avery Johnson.
Johnson was electrifying, if occasionally frustrating, in 2024 after taking over for the departed Will Howard who went on to win a National Championship with Ohio State. He’s a true dual threat who spent his first starting year flashing brilliance while sprinkling in the odd stinker. Heading into his junior year, the hope is that his game will mature from last season’s experience and that coordinator Matt Wells can help slow things down for him.
If Johnson delivers more of his highs and fewer lows, Kansas State could make serious noise. The defense has been good-but-not-great the past couple of years, and without major changes, expectations are more of the same.
This is a boom-or-bust Big 12 title contender, and I’m firmly on the Avery Johnson bandwagon.
Key Returning Players:
QB Avery Johnson (JR), RB Dylan Edwards (JR), DE Chiddi Obiazor (RS SO), S VJ Payne (SR)
Key Incoming Transfers:
OT George Fitzpatrick (RS JR), WR Jabon Tibbs (JR), WR Jerand Bradley (RS SR), S Gunner Maldonado (RS SR)
Heisman Watch: QB Avery Johnson
I believe in this guy. Johnson’s a long shot, but his run-and-gun style racks up stats and highlight plays, which is exactly what voters notice. If he can put it together, he’s a legitimate dark horse.
2. Texas Tech Red Raiders
2024 Record: 8-5 (6-3)
2025 Projected Record: 9-3 (6-3)
The Red Raiders are a prime example of the NIL transfer portal era at work.
After years of mediocrity, Joey McGuire and company opened the checkbook this offseason. They added explosive playmakers in sophomore RB Quinten Joyner and WR Reggie Virgil, hoping senior QB Behren Morton can build chemistry quickly. Morton has the tools to make it work, though he’s not quite the top-tier QB who elevates a roster beyond its potential.
Defensively, the front four was completely rebuilt through transfers. While that makes their early pass rush hard to project, the talent level is high. The offense should steal the headlines, but the defense could be quietly strong.
Key Returning Players:
QB Behren Morton (RS SR), WR Coy Eakin (SR), LB Jacob Rodriguez (RS SR), S Brenden Jordan (JR)
Key Incoming Transfers:
RB Quinten Joyner (SO), WR Reggie Virgil (SR), DE David Bailey (SR), S Cole Wisniewski (RS SR)
3. Arizona State Sun Devils
2024 Record: 11-3 (7-2)
2025 Projected Record: 9-3 (6-3)
Last year’s Cinderella story returns without its best player, Cam Skattebo, leaving QB Sam Leavitt to keep the magic alive.
The WR room is unproven outside Jordyn Tyson, and the RB position looks like a committee without a clear lead back. Leavitt’s intelligence and mobility will keep the offense competitive, but there are more questions than answers.
The defense, however, should be the team’s backbone. They return most starters, almost all homegrown talent, and were underrated in 2024 amid Skattebo-mania. If they can sustain last year’s late-season form, Arizona State could stay in the title hunt.
Key Returning Players:
QB Sam Leavitt (RS SO), WR Jordyn Tyson (RS JR), CB Keith Abney II (JR), DE Clayton Smith (RS SR)
Key Incoming Transfers:
RB Kanye Udoh (JR), WR Jalen Moss (RS JR), CB Kyndrich Breedlove (RS SR), K Jesus Gomez (RS SR)
4. TCU Horned Frogs
2024 Record: 9-4 (6-3)
2025 Projected Record: 8-4 (6-3)
TCU might be better than the preseason chatter suggests. QB Josh Hoover showed poise in 2024 despite some growing pains.
He’ll face challenges with a mostly new WR group and starting RB, but his leadership gives the Horned Frogs a fighting chance. The defense was inconsistent but improved late in the season; with most key players returning, they could build on that momentum.
This team has true sleeper potential.
Key Returning Players:
QB Josh Hoover (RS JR), G Cade Bennett (RS SR), LB Namdi Obiazor (SR), DE Devean Deal (RS SR)
Key Incoming Transfers:
WR Jordan Dwyer (JR), WR Joseph Manjack IV (RS SR), DT Ansel Din-Mbuh (JR), S Elijah Jackson (RS SR)
5. Baylor Bears
2024 Record: 8-5 (6-3)
2025 Projected Record: 7-5 (6-3)
Baylor could be a sneaky contender thanks to what might be the best QB in the conference, Sawyer Robertson, plus a wealth of returning offensive talent. Both the skill positions and the offensive line are loaded with experience. If Robertson builds on last year’s form, this team could surprise.
The defense lagged behind in 2024, but most starters return, and the Bears added several solid transfers to shake things up. The schedule could be their biggest obstacle, and if they can survive early non-conference tests, they will be a team to watch.
Key Returning Players:
QB Sawyer Robertson (RS SR), RB Bryson Washington (RS SO), WR Ashtyn Hawkins (RS SR), OT Sydney Fugar (RS SR)
Key Incoming Transfers:
NT Adonis Friloux (RS SR), LB Emar’rion Winston (RS JR), LB Travion Barnes (SR), WR Kobe Prentice (SR)
6. Utah Utes
2024 Record: 5-7 (2-7)
2025 Projected Record: 7-5 (5-4)
New QB. New RB. Three new WRs. New offensive coordinator. This is a full-on experiment.
The entire skill group is rebuilt through transfers, but the saving grace is a fully intact offensive line. QB Devon Dampier is unproven, and while RB Wayshawn Parker could thrive behind this line, the passing game is the big unknown.
Defensively, Utah looks like a bend-don’t-break unit, solid enough to keep games close but lacking star power. The offense’s ability to find rhythm will decide if this team overachieves or stalls.
Key Returning Players:
G Tonai Togiai (RS SR), OT Spencer Fano (JR), DE Logan Fano (RS JR), LB Lander Barton (SR)
Key Incoming Transfers:
QB Devon Dampier (JR), RB Wayshawn Parker (SO), WR Ryan Davis (RS SR), WR Tobias Merriweather (RS JR)
7. Iowa State Cyclones
2024 Record: 11-3 (7-2)
2025 Projected Record: 7-5 (5-4)
Last year’s overachiever looks set to take a step back. The Cyclones lost their top two WRs, most of their defensive front seven, and return a QB in Rocco Becht who is average at best.
To stay competitive, they’ll lean heavily on a power run game to control the clock. With limited impact transfers, what you see is what you get. And to me, all I can see is a middle-of-the-pack season in Ames.
Key Returning Players:
QB Rocco Becht (RS JR), RB Carson Hansen (JR), LB Caleb Bacon (RS SR), CB Jeremiah Cooper (SR)
Key Incoming Transfers:
WR Chase Sowell (RS JR), WR Xavier Townsend (RS JR), DE Tamatoa McDonough (RS SR), CB Tre Bell (RS JR)
8. BYU Cougars
2024 Record: 11-2 (7-2)
2025 Projected Record: 6-6 (5-4)
BYU’s season could be defined before it starts. Starting QB Jake Retzlaff is suspended for an honor code violation, and the Cougars don’t have a clear replacement.
The defense will carry them early while the offense searches for an identity. Given the instability at QB, matching last year’s success feels unlikely.
Key Returning Players:
WR Chase Roberts (RS SR), RB LJ Martin (JR), LB Jack Kelly (RS SR), LB Isaiah Glasker (RS JR)
Key Incoming Transfers:
WR Tiger Bachmeier (JR), OT Andrew Gentry (RS JR), DT Keanu Tanuvasa (RS JR), DT Justin Kirkland (SR)
9. Colorado Buffaloes
2024 Record: 9-4 (7-2)
2025 Projected Record: 6-6 (5-4)
Without Shedeur and Shilo Sanders, and a player you may have heard of named Travis Hunter, the Buffs face a big transition. The question: Will Deion Sanders stay as invested?
Liberty transfer QB Kaidon Salter has the tools to succeed, and the offensive line got reinforcements. But most starters are gone, and this team will be learning on the fly. Defensive leader Reginald Hughes will help keep them competitive, but it’s all about whether Deion can reload.
Key Returning Players:
DT Anquin Barnes Jr. (RS SR), CB Preston Hodge (SR), OT Jordan Seaton (SO), WR Omarion Miller (JR)
Key Incoming Transfers:
QB Kaidon Salter (RS SR), WR Sincere Brown (RS SR), LB Reginald Hughes (GR), LB Martavius French (RS SR)
10. Houston Cougars
2024 Record: 4-8 (3-6)
2025 Projected Record: 6-6 (3-6)
Year one under Willie Fritz was a rebuild. Now, with big transfer additions, Houston looks ready to bounce back.
QB Conner Weigman is the headliner, with two years of eligibility. Expect plenty of connections with TE Tanner Koziol. The defense was solid last year but faces turnover, so it’s unclear how much was coaching versus personnel.
A favorable schedule helps Houston’s case for improvement.
Key Returning Players:
OT David Ndukwe (RS SR), S Latrell McCutchin Sr. (RS SR), LB Brandon Mack II (RS SR), WR Stephen Johnson (SR)
Key Incoming Transfers:
QB Conner Weigman (RS JR), TE Tanner Koziol (SR), LB Jesus Machado (RS SR), CB Wrook Brown (RS SR)
11. Kansas Jayhawks
2024 Record: 5-7 (4-5)
2025 Projected Record: 5-7 (4-5)
QB Jalon Daniels returns for his final season, but the rest of the offense is almost entirely new, and the O-line is a glaring weakness.
Defensively, the line is the most stable unit, but the rest of the roster, including special teams, has seen major turnover. Expect a quiet season as Lance Leipold tries to keep the program steady.
Key Returning Players:
QB Jalon Daniels (RS SR), DE Dean Miller (RS SR), DT D.J. Withers (RS SR), DT Tommy Dunn Jr. (RS SR)
Key Incoming Transfers:
RB Leshon Williams (RS SR), WR Bryson Canty (RS SR), LB Bangally Kamara (RS SR), WR Emmanuel Henderson Jr. (SR)
12. Arizona Wildcats
2024 Record: 4-8 (2-7)
2025 Projected Record: 5-7 (4-6)
Without Tetairoa McMillan, the Wildcats lack top-end offensive firepower. QB Noah Fifita returns with decent numbers but a tendency for conservative play.
The defense remains poor, and Brent Brennan hasn’t shown he can turn it around quickly. Another tough season likely looms.
Key Returning Players:
QB Noah Fifita (RS JR), DE Tre Smith (RS SR), S Dalton Johnson (RS SR), LB Chase Kennedy (RS JR)
Key Incoming Transfers:
RB Ismail Mahdi (SR), WR Luke Wysong (RS SR), WR Kris Hutson (RS SR), DT Deshawn McKnight (SR)
13. Oklahoma State Cowboys
2024 Record: 3-9 (0-9)
2025 Projected Record: 4-8 (3-6)
It’s a full teardown for Mike Gundy’s program. The starting QB battle between Zane Flores and Hauss Hejny is unresolved, and most offensive starters are new.
Defensively, there’s no sign of a turnaround yet. This will be a year to install new systems and prepare for 2026.
Key Returning Players:
QB Zane Flores (RS SO), DT Iman Oates (RS SR), CB Cameron Epps (RS JR), WR Da’Wain Lofton (RS SR)
Key Incoming Transfers:
QB Hauss Hejny (RS FR), WR Terrill Davis (RS SR), LB Bryan McCoy (SR), CB JK Johnson (RS SR)
14. UCF Knights
2024 Record: 4-8 (2-7)
2025 Projected Record: 4-8 (2-7)
Scott Frost is back, but the Big 12 is a tougher neighborhood than the American Conference he once dominated.
UCF’s roster is almost entirely rebuilt through transfers. RB Myles Montgomery returns, but the passing game is an unknown with a new QB, WRs, and OL. The defense could improve slightly thanks to additions up front, but they’re still not at the level needed to contend.
Key Returning Players:
RB Myles Montgomery (RS SR), OT Paul Rubelt (RS SR), S Demari Henderson (RS JR), CB Braeden Marshall (JR)
Key Incoming Transfers:
QB Tayven Jackson (RS JR), WR DJ Black (RS SR), LB Keli Lawson (RS SR), CB Isaiah Reed (SR)
15. Cincinnati Bearcats
2024 Record: 5-7 (3-6)
2025 Projected Record: 4-8 (2-7)
The Bearcats are still trying to recover from Luke Fickell’s departure. The offense has struggled badly under Scott Satterfield, though the transfer portal brought in new WRs and a more vertical passing scheme.
Defensively, they’re strong against the run but vulnerable through the air, which translates to bad news in the pass-happy Big 12.
Key Returning Players:
QB Brendan Sorsby (RS JR), TE Joe Royer (RS SR), DT Dontay Corleone (RS SR), S Antwan Peek Jr. (RS JR)
Key Incoming Transfers:
WR Jeff Caldwell (SR), WR Cyrus Allen (SR), WR Caleb Goodie (JR), RB Tawee Walker (RS SR)
16. West Virginia Mountaineers
2024 Record: 6-7 (5-4)
2025 Projected Record: 3-9 (1-8)
Rich Rodriguez returns to Morgantown and immediately turns over more than 50 roster spots. QB Nicco Marchiol is one of the few holdovers.
With this much change, 2025 is more about building a foundation than chasing wins.
Key Returning Players:
QB Nicco Marchiol (RS JR), RB Jahiem White (JR), DT Edward Vesterinen (GR), LB Reid Carrico (RS SR)
Key Incoming Transfers:
TE Grayson Barnes (SR), WR Cam Vaughn (RS SO), DE Jimmori Robinson (RS SR), CB Michael Coats Jr. (RS SR)
Championship Game Prediction
Kansas State defeats Texas Tech
Games to Circle
- Kansas State at Kansas (Oct. 25): An in-state rivalry with high stakes. Expect fireworks, and don’t assume the favorite wins.
- Texas Tech at Kansas State (Nov. 1): A potential preview of the title game. The winner could control their own playoff destiny.
- SMU at TCU (Sept. 20): My dark-horse pick, TCU, gets tested early against a likely Top 25 SMU squad.
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