Through these previews, there’s been a lot of discussion about the movement of players. With NIL money and the higher rate of transfers across programs and conferences, people are focused on the movement of talent. But in the Mountain West, the story is the movement of programs entirely.
The MWC will see four of its top teams leave for the new Pac-12 next year. This is the swan song of the MWC as we know it, though there are currently no plans for the conference to shut down. So, for now, we get to take a look at how the final year of the MWC as we know it could play out.
1. Boise State Broncos
2024 Record: 12-2 (8-0)
2025 Projected Record: 11-1 (8-0)
Boise State is easily the cream of the crop in the MWC. They were the best team in the conference last year, going undefeated in the regular season. Add on the fact that they bring back more starters and productive players than any of their conference compatriots, and you can understand why the Broncos sit atop the rankings.
Now, even as the darling, there are questions. More specifically, one big question: how do you replace Ashton Jeanty? The playmaking, bruising running back followed up his Heisman-finalist year by getting drafted in the top 10 of the 2025 Draft. The Broncos know what they lost, and they’ve tried to be proactive by bringing in Malik Sherrod. Sherrod is no Jeanty, but he’s more than serviceable, having shown flashes at Fresno State.
Boise State has other questions, like who becomes the leader in the receiving room for QB Maddux Madsen, and who steps up on defense? The dynamic safety duo of Ty Benefield and Zion Washington returns, and if they can remain the pass-rush combo defenders they were last year, Boise will be hard to beat in a high-tempo game.
Key Returning Players:
Maddux Madsen (QB, RS JR), Matt Lauter (TE, RS SR), Zion Washington (S, RS SR), Ty Benefield (S, JR)
Key Incoming Transfers:
Malik Sherrod (RB, RS SR), Miles Walker (OG, RS SO), Dion Washington (DT, RS SR), Jaden Mickey (CB, RS JR)
2. UNLV Rebels
2024 Record: 11-3 (6-2)
2025 Projected Record: 10-2 (7-1)
UNLV was active in the transfer portal, and rightfully so. They’re experiencing unprecedented success for their program, have brought in a new head coach, and are looking to keep the winning going even through the leadership change. The question is, can you really build on that kind of momentum when 80% of your roster turns over?
The Rebels are looking at a nearly brand-new starting lineup on both sides of the ball, with all but two or three spots on each side slated for transfers. Coach Dan Mullen will first need to identify whether Virginia’s Anthony Colandrea or Michigan’s Alex Orji is his starting QB, but even then, there’s a ton of talent evaluation that needs to happen quickly.
That’s not to say the talent isn’t there. The Rebels have transfers at every position who have been called blue-chip at one point or another. Daejon Reynolds, Malik McGowan, Chief Borders, and Laterrance Welch are all high-end potential players, and there’s a solid list behind them that fits the same mold.
If this team can build chemistry, they’ll go right back to winning like last year. But chemistry is a big “if” on this scale, so we’ll see what happens.
Key Returning Players:
Jai’Den Thomas (RB, JR), Jaden Bradley (WR, RS SR), Marsel McDuffie (LB, RS SR), Kodi DeCambra (S, RS SO)
Key Incoming Transfers:
Alex Orji (QB, RS JR), Anthony Colandrea (QB, JR), Troy Omeire (WR, RS SR), Chief Borders (DE, RS SR)
3. San Jose State Spartans
2024 Record: 7-6 (3-4)
2025 Projected Record: 9-3 (6-2)
The Spartans are a team that’s probably not going to be super pleased with the year they have. It feels like it’ll be an up-and-down season where they struggle to get over the hump. Head coach Ken Niumatalolo is doing the best he can with what he has, but SJSU’s transfer efforts weren’t as fruitful as those of some other teams.
They will benefit from bringing back QB Walker Eget and RB Floyd Chalk IV, the lynchpins of their offense, while also moving into a new offensive scheme that better suits their style, shifting away from quick passing and into a more vertical game. The defense isn’t as tight, having lost some of their top players, including their top three sack producers.
San Jose State has a shot at a respectable season carried by experience and internal familiarity, but there’s a lack of immediate star power or game-changing ability, and that will hurt the Spartans in the long run.
Key Returning Players:
Walker Eget (QB, RS SR), Floyd Chalk IV (RB, SR), Jordan Pollard (LB, SR), Isaih Revis (S, RS SR)
Key Incoming Transfers:
Caleb Presley (CB, RS SO), Mason Starling (WR, RS SR), Danny Scudero (WR, RS SO), Maliki Crawford (CB, RS SO)
4. Colorado State Rams
2024 Record: 8-5 (6-1)
2025 Projected Record: 8-4 (6-2)
Colorado State is a tale of two distinctly different halves of a football team. The Rams’ offense, outside of the receiver corps, is mostly intact. QB Brayden Fowler-Nicolosi has a long way to go to become a high-end starter, with a TD:INT ratio that could use improvement. However, continuing in the same system with RB Justin Marshall and a couple of strong returning offensive linemen gives him a good chance to grow.
The defense, on the other hand, will need to find cohesion as they integrate transfers at every level. Some players like LB Jacob Ellis and CB Jahari Rogers could make an immediate impact, but defenses rely on trust and alignment, and that may be the downfall of the 2025 Rams.
Key Returning Players:
Brayden Fowler-Nicolosi (QB, RS JR), Justin Marshall (RB, RS SO), Armani Winfield (WR, RS JR), Trevyn Heil (C, RS SR)
Key Incoming Transfers:
Tay Lanier (WR, RS SR), JaQues Evans (DE, GR), Jahari Rogers (CB, GR), Jacob Ellis (LB, GR)
5. Fresno State Bulldogs
2024 Record: 6-7 (4-3)
2025 Projected Record: 7-5 (4-4)
First-year head coach Matt Entz has a tough road ahead. Fresno State is in a strange place offensively, bringing in transfer QB E.J. Warner and dealing with a cluttered running back room that lacks a clear starter.
Most of their top offensive producers are gone, so with a new coach, a new scheme, and new starters across the board, it’s hard to tell if this team will be able to move the ball effectively. The defense, by contrast, was less affected by departures and was solid in 2024. They may be the key to Fresno putting together a winning season.
Key Returning Players:
Korey Foreman (DE, RS SR), Elijah Gilliam (RB, RS SR), Toreon Penright (OT, RS SR), Al’zillion Hamilton (CB, RS SR)
Key Incoming Transfers:
E.J. Warner (QB, SR), Rayshon Luke (RB, RS JR), Josiah Ayon (WR, SR), Jadon Pearson (LB, RS SR)
6. Air Force Falcons
2024 Record: 5-7 (3-4)
2025 Projected Record: 6-6 (4-4)
If you’ve read our American Conference Preview, you’ll know one thing about military college teams: it’s an option offense, always.
Unfortunately for Air Force, there’s a lack of experience at quarterback that could make things difficult early in the year. In an option offense, the timing and chemistry between the QB and the RB/FB is vital, and with Josh Johnson having barely played in 2024, there will be a learning curve. How quickly he adjusts will determine how the Falcons fare. Everything else will be secondary to that.
Key Returning Players:
Josh Johnson (QB, SO), Dylan Carlson (FB, SR), Cade Harris (RB, SR), Jackson Adams (LB, SR), Evan Rau (CB, SR), Blake Fletcher (LB, JR)
Key Incoming Transfers: N/A
7. Wyoming Cowboys
2024 Record: 3-9 (2-5)
2025 Projected Record: 6-6 (4-4)
Wyoming got destroyed in 2024 (to put it nicely). New head coach Jay Sawvel had a rough first outing with the Cowboys, as both sides of the ball statistically struggled. These first seasons under a new coach can always be a bit deceiving, so there’s still some hope in Laramie.
The offense is mostly intact, with young QB Kaden Anderson stepping up now that Evan Svoboda has departed. There’s some expectation that Sawvel will implement a more cohesive offensive strategy in 2025, so it just comes down to how well Anderson can execute it. The defense will feature many new faces, and the transfer portal wasn’t especially generous to Wyoming. Most of their additions came from smaller schools, so it may be a developmental year.
Key Returning Players:
Kaden Anderson (QB, RS SO), Sam Scott (RB, RS SR), Tyce Westland (DE, RS SR), Andrew Johnson (S, RS SR)
Key Incoming Transfers:
Chisom Ifeanyi (DE, GR), Aneesh Vyas (DT, GR), Dainsus Miller (CB, SR), Ethan Stuhlsatz (LB, RS SR)
8. San Diego State Aztecs
2024 Record: 3-9 (2-5)
2025 Projected Record: 5-7 (3-5)
SDSU was a bad team last year, and they’re likely to be a bad team again this year. It’s very much copy-paste from what we just covered with Wyoming: second-year coach, trying to find the right scheme and fit, and dealing with natural struggles.
The difference is there’s less continuity on offense here. The Aztecs are going to be relying on a slew of transfers to reshape a broken unit, and it doesn’t feel like this group has enough talent to elevate them back to winning form. Transfer QB Jayden Denegal from Michigan is one to watch, but a massive breakout seems unlikely.
The defense, however, is mostly intact and was solid last year. That returning core might give the offense enough opportunities to find its footing, but that remains to be seen.
Key Returning Players:
Tano Letuli (LB, JR), Chris Johnson (CB, SR), Trey White (DE, RS JR), Christian Jones (LT, RS SR)
Key Incoming Transfers:
Jayden Denegal (QB, RS JR), Myles Kitt-Denton (WR, RS SR), Christian Washington (RB, RS JR), Seth Adams (TE, SR)
9. Hawaii Rainbow Warriors
2024 Record: 5-7 (3-4)
2025 Projected Record: 4-8 (2-6)
The buzz about this team is simple: QB Micah Alejado could be the next big thing, and no doubt head coach Timmy Chang is banking on that.
Hawaii took a gamble on Alejado, a highly-rated prospect who lacks conventional size at 5’10”. If he can overcome that natural limitation, he could go full college Bryce Young and become a breakout star.
If that happens, Hawaii has just enough of a defense to win more than a couple of games. The Rainbow Warriors are the boom-or-bust, dark horse team of the conference, so keep an eye on them in the early part of the season.
Key Returning Players:
Micah Alejado (QB, RS FR), Pofele Ashlock (WR, RS JR), Peter Manuma (S, SR), Jalen Smith (LB, RS SR)
Key Incoming Transfers:
Jackson Harris (WR, RS SO), De’Jon Benton (DT, GR), Tim Malo (S, GR)
10. Utah State Aggies
2024 Record: 4-8 (3-4)
2025 Projected Record: 3-9 (2-6)
Utah State is rolling out a mostly new starting lineup on both sides of the ball, doing so under new head coach Bronco Mendenhall (great name).
The Aggies had a rough 2024, and with a lack of proven talent across much of their depth chart, 2025 will likely bring more of the same. Expect a tough, transitional year as Mendenhall begins laying the groundwork for future success.
Key Returning Players:
Bryson Barnes (QB, RS SR), Trey Anderson (OT, RS SR), Enoka Migao (DE, RS SR), John Miller (LB, RS SR)
Key Incoming Transfers:
Demick Starling (WR, RS SR), Corey Thompson Jr. (WR, JR), Bryson Taylor (CB, SR), Noah Avinger (CB, RS SR)
11. Nevada Wolfpack
2024 Record: 3-10 (0-7)
2025 Projected Record: 2-10 (1-7)
Nevada ended 2024 on an ugly losing streak and will need to recapture some of their early-season form to crawl out of the basement.
They brought in a good number of transfers, most of them on defense. Head coach Jeff Choate has a chance to reshape the team and maybe find some inspiration. That could lead to five or six wins in an ideal scenario, but it’s hard to expect more than that given the current outlook.
Key Returning Players:
Chubba Purdy (QB, RS SR), Marcus Bellon (WR, RS SR), Stone Combs (LB, RS JR), Nelson Ropati (NT, SR)
Key Incoming Transfers:
Herschel Turner (RB, SO), Jack Foster (OT, RS JR), Jordan Brown (WR, RS SR), AJ Odums (CB, RS SR)
12. New Mexico Lobos
2024 Record: 5-7 (3-4)
2025 Projected Record: 2-10 (1-7)
This level of turnover, especially at nearly every skill position, rarely ends well for a team already struggling. That’s a roundabout way of saying first-year head coach Jason Eck has his work cut out for him.
The Lobos haven’t had much success lately, and while they were active in the transfer portal, there aren’t many difference-makers entering the program. Jack Layne at quarterback could be a bright spot, and with two years of eligibility, he offers fans something to be excited about.
Key Returning Players:
Isaiah Sillemon (C, RS SR), Dimitri Johnson (LB, SR), Randolph Kpai (LB, RS SR), Michael Buckley (WR, RS SR)
Key Incoming Transfers:
Jack Layne (QB, RS JR), Scottre Humphrey (RB, JR), Darren Agu (DE, RS JR), Jon Johnson (CB, RS SR)
Championship Game Prediction
Boise State defeats UNLV
Games to Circle
Boise State at Notre Dame (Oct. 4):
Easily the biggest non-conference matchup for the Mountain West. We’ve got this pegged as Boise’s one loss of the regular season, but the Broncos are not aggressively outmatched. This could be the game that defines their national standing.
UNLV at Boise State (Oct. 18):
The top two teams in the conference square off midseason. If both follow our projected paths, this could be a battle between one-loss teams for conference supremacy. Boise will want to make a statement here in its final MWC campaign.
Stanford at Hawaii (Aug. 23):
This will be Micah Alejado’s first Week 1 start for Hawaii, and with all the buzz surrounding him, it’s worth tuning in to see what he can do against a Power 5 opponent right out of the gate.
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