Sportsbooks opened their NBA MVP markets for the 2025–26 season shortly after the Finals concluded. Coming off an enthralling contest for the award in 2024–25, Shai Gilgeous-Alexander and Nikola Jokić open as the two clear betting favorites.
Jokić, a three-time MVP and two-time runner-up, lost out to Gilgeous-Alexander last season. The pair sit a significant margin ahead of the field, with Luka Dončić, a common preseason favorite in recent years, their closest rival according to FanDuel’s latest odds.
Two-time MVP Giannis Antetokounmpo headlines the next group, which includes Victor Wembanyama and Anthony Edwards. From there, there is another sizeable gap to Jalen Brunson and Donovan Mitchell.
Here’s a look at the opening numbers from FanDuel:
Nikola Jokić +200
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander +280
Luka Dončić +750
Giannis Antetokounmpo +1200
Anthony Edwards +1300
Victor Wembanyama +1300
Jalen Brunson +3000
Donovan Mitchell +3900
Cade Cunningham +5500
Paolo Banchero +5500
Kevin Durant +5500
Steph Curry +7000
Anthony Davis +7000
Joel Embiid +8500
Jaylen Brown +8500
LeBron James +12000
Familiar Favorites
It is no surprise that the two leading contenders from last season are the favorites again. Jokić remains the best all-around player in the world, while Gilgeous-Alexander is coming off one of the greatest guard seasons in league history. His year included an MVP award, Finals MVP, and the first title in Oklahoma City Thunder history.
Sportsbooks have consistently overestimated Luka Dončić’s MVP chances in recent years. While he is always in the statistical mix, a combination of injury absences and inconsistent team performance has limited him to just one top-three MVP finish.
There is no question that Dončić, Jokić, and Gilgeous-Alexander will all post MVP-worthy numbers. The latter two also have the benefit of a reliable team structure. The Thunder are bringing back nearly everyone, while the Nuggets made aggressive moves early in free agency. Dončić’s situation is less stable. With uncertainty around LeBron James’ future and the Lakers appearing to prioritize future cap space, Dončić may again be asked to carry a flawed roster. He could easily have another standout season and still wind up on a play-in team in a loaded West. At +750, that is a tough number to justify unless the Lakers make significant roster upgrades.
Narrative Could Favor Giannis
Does Giannis Antetokounmpo offer value at +1200? We think so.
The Bucks signaled their ongoing commitment to building around Giannis by waiving Damian Lillard and signing Myles Turner. It might not be a move that improves their title odds long term, but it gives Milwaukee a fighting chance in what should be a wide open Eastern Conference.
Additions like Gary Trent Jr., Gary Harris, Taurean Prince, and Kevin Porter Jr. give the Bucks a functional rotation around the two-time MVP. It is not a championship core, but it could be enough for a 50-win season in the East, which would put Giannis firmly in the MVP mix.
If Giannis posts his usual dominant stat line (he went 30-12-7 last season) and the Bucks exceed expectations after losing Lillard, the narrative momentum could swing heavily in his favor.
Cade Cunningham and the Ascendant Pistons
A weakened Eastern Conference creates an opportunity for new teams and stars to rise. With Boston and Indiana projected to regress this year, there are open spots at the top of the standings.
The Detroit Pistons are among the most intriguing candidates to take advantage. They finished strong last season and were a few breaks away from upsetting the Knicks in round one of the playoffs.
Cade Cunningham was quietly excellent all season and unlucky to only land on the All-NBA Third Team. Detroit’s offense fell apart without him on the floor. He averaged 26.1 points, 6.1 rebounds, and 9.1 assists per game. If he nudges his scoring up slightly and leads Detroit to 50 or more wins, he will absolutely enter the MVP conversation.
Late-Career KD Deserves a Look
Kevin Durant has played more than 65 games just once since leaving Golden State, which is the primary reason he is listed at +5500. But now in Houston, the setup might finally be right.
Brooklyn and Phoenix never put the right players around the former MVP. Still, Durant remained incredibly efficient and productive, earning All-NBA Second Team honors in 2021-22 and again in 2023-24.
The Houston Rockets, meanwhile, were the number two seed in the West last year and have added Durant, Clint Capela, and Dorian Finney-Smith, while retaining Steven Adams and Jae’Sean Tate. With Ime Udoka at the helm and a strong, well-balanced roster, Houston looks ready to battle OKC for the top seed.
Durant could easily average 30 or more points per game on elite efficiency for a top team. If that happens and he stays healthy, the MVP buzz will follow. At +5500, he is a legit dark horse.
Other Fringe Contenders
The case for Paolo Banchero (+5500) is similar to Cunningham’s. He is not quite as strong a value because his assist numbers likely will not pop the same way, but he remains a viable mid-tier bet in a weak conference.
Trae Young (+10000) could be worth a flier. Atlanta has been proactive in free agency, and with several Eastern contenders resetting, a Hawks surge could open the door. Young should again be among the league leaders in scoring and assists.
Out West, it is hard to back a longshot unless you believe in major team overachievement. If the Rockets win 60 or more games, maybe Alperen Sengun (+35000) becomes a sneaky bet, especially if Durant misses time. Sengun’s offensive versatility and production suggest he is one leap away from award recognition.
Final Word
The 2025–26 MVP race is shaping up to be another fascinating mix of returning superstars and rising young talent. Gilgeous-Alexander and Jokić are deserving favorites, but there is real value in names like Giannis, Cunningham, and Durant depending on how the season unfolds.
In a league increasingly driven by narrative and team success, bettors should weigh individual stats, roster context, and media momentum before placing their MVP wagers.
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