Victor Wembanyama is the overwhelming favorite to win the 2025–26 NBA Defensive Player of the Year award. He opens at a price of -170 on FanDuel, leading a market that also features Chet Holmgren and reigning DPOY Evan Mobley.
After those three, there is a significant drop in odds. Amen Thompson and Dyson Daniels come next, both opening at +2500.
Here are the full opening odds, courtesy of FanDuel:
- Victor Wembanyama -170
- Chet Holmgren +650
- Evan Mobley +950
- Amen Thompson +2500
- Dyson Daniels +2500
- Anthony Davis +3000
- Ivica Zubac +3500
- Jaren Jackson Jr. +5000
- Bam Adebayo +5000
- Rudy Gobert +5000
- Draymond Green +5000
- Luguentz Dort +5000
- Jalen Suggs +6500
- Giannis Antetokounmpo +6500
Wemby at the Top
Victor Wembanyama is trying to become the fourth Spurs player to win DPOY, joining Alvin Robertson, David Robinson, and Kawhi Leonard. Only two franchises have produced more winners.
Wemby led the league in blocks each of the last two seasons and has averaged 1.1 steals per game in his NBA career. Last season, San Antonio’s defense was nearly eight points better per 100 possessions with him on the floor. Without him, their defensive rating would have ranked dead last in the league.
He was the favorite to win the award last season before deep vein thrombosis in his shoulder cut his year short. The injury kept him from reaching the 65-game minimum, a threshold that remains the biggest threat to his chances.
There is no denying his impact. But if the Spurs remain below average on defense and miss the playoffs again, voters may look elsewhere.
Young Rivals
Chet Holmgren and Evan Mobley are Wembanyama’s two most credible challengers.
Holmgren was part of the league’s best defense last year with the Oklahoma City Thunder. His individual stats match up well, and his combination of blocks and steals per game puts him near Wemby’s territory. The concern is availability. Holmgren missed most of last season due to injury, and 65 games played is far from guaranteed.
Mobley won the award last year and led a Cavs defense that finished eighth in defensive rating. His statistical case was not overwhelming as the Cavs were just 2.9 points better per 100 possessions with him on the court, but his consistency and team success pushed him over the top. He averages 2.4 stocks per game in his career, compared to 3.0 for Holmgren.
Beating a healthy Wemby will require elite on-off numbers, a strong statistical case, and likely a top-five team defense. Mobley and Holmgren both check some boxes, but neither is a clear challenger if Wembanyama stays on the floor.
Perimeter Contenders
Thompson, Daniels, Suggs, and Dort are the most likely guards or wings to crack the DPOY conversation.
Daniels finished second in the voting last season. Thompson was second to Daniels in deflections per 36 minutes and might be the most disruptive perimeter defender in the league. Suggs was gaining traction before getting injured, and Dort remained a defensive force even if his case was quieter by season’s end.
But recent history is not on their side. Since Gary Payton in 1996, only three guards or small forwards have won DPOY: Ron Artest, Marcus Smart, and Kawhi Leonard. Without overwhelming team success or eye-popping stats, it is tough for wings to win this award.
Among the four, Thompson has the best mix of production, athleticism, and narrative potential. But he will need the Hawks to jump from 18th into the top 10 in defense to be taken seriously.
Veteran Longshots
Beyond the top five, the board gets murkier.
Anthony Davis sits at +3000, but it is difficult to see the Mavericks being good enough to support a DPOY campaign. The same applies to Jaren Jackson Jr., who has already won the award but plays on a Memphis team facing a long road back to relevance.
Ivica Zubac is underrated, but his role limits his case. Rudy Gobert is past his peak, and Minnesota finished only sixth in defense last season. Draymond Green is the most intriguing veteran at +5000. He was the betting favorite at times last year before Wemby’s injury, and Golden State had one of the best defenses in the league after acquiring Jimmy Butler. The Warriors are aging, but if the front office makes a win-now move, Green’s value could spike.
At +6500, Giannis Antetokounmpo is the best of the bunch. The Bucks are still contending, and with Myles Turner now at his side, Giannis could anchor one of the league’s best frontcourts. If Milwaukee gets to 50-plus wins and he posts his usual numbers, voters could come back around.
Parting Shot
Wembanyama is the rightful favorite, but there are plenty of ways this race could open up.
Health, team performance, and voter fatigue will all factor in. If you are looking for value, Thompson and Giannis stand out among the longer shots, while Holmgren offers real upside if he stays healthy. Betting on DPOY is often about anticipating who checks every box, including stats, wins, highlights, and availability.
This season, that box might not belong to Wemby alone.
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