Welcome to Crush & Fade, our weekly series where we break down the current PGA Tour event and recap the previous tournament. I hope everyone is ready for the final major of the 2025 season so let’s dive in!
Scottish Open Recap
The Renaissance Club delivered a great week of golf, and the golf gods blessed North Berwick with unbelievable weather from start to finish. Chris Gotterup held off Rory McIlroy and a loaded leaderboard to win his second PGA Tour event by two strokes.
Hopefully his travel team was quick, because instead of flying home to the United States, he needs to hop over to Northern Ireland for this week’s Open Championship.
Scottie Scheffler added yet another top 10 finish. He was clearly frustrated with the putter all week, but the world number one battled into contention once again. It is hard to imagine he will not be right back in the mix at Royal Portrush.
The Open Championship Preview
This week we return to Royal Portrush, the site of Shane Lowry’s unforgettable win in 2019. The course is a par 71 and stretches out to 7,381 yards. It is not a bomber’s paradise. Players will need to keep it in play off the tee, shape shots through the wind, and lean heavily on creativity around the greens.
Xander Schauffele is the defending champion, winning last year with a score of nine under. Lowry’s 2019 win came in at fifteen under and six clear of second place Tommy Fleetwood.
Links golf is not for everyone, but I am hoping for some wind, some rain, and a real test. The forecast looks like a bit of everything. Part of what makes the Open special is seeing the best in the world have to hit every shot in the bag. Pot bunkers, unpredictable lies, and greenside madness. I cannot wait.
Sandman Top Bets
Will the cream rise to the top in Northern Ireland? I think so. I always try to find value, but sometimes the best in the world are simply the best bets. Even if the payout is not massive, the goal is to cash tickets.
Jon Rahm WIN +1200
I absolutely love Rahm this week. He finished T11 here in 2019 and has gone T14, T8, and T7 in the first three majors this year. He is rounding into form and brings the power and shot-making this course demands.
Rory McIlroy Top 5 +175
I was tempted to pick Rory to win. He seems to have rediscovered his game since the Masters win in April. He just finished T2 at the Scottish. He is the native son. Give me Rory all day at Royal Portrush.
Matt Fitzpatrick Top 10 +425
Back-to-back top 10s heading in. Fitz just fits this track. He is not overpowering anyone, but he thinks his way around and executes when it counts. He gained seven strokes putting last week in Scotland. That is elite, and it travels.
Robert MacIntyre Top 20 +175
I overheard MacIntyre say after missing yet another fairway last week, “Bob, you are so bad at golf this week.” And I loved that. He still made the cut, even without his best stuff. He finished T6 here in 2019 and knows this course well. I expect a bounce back.
CRUSH Recap
Jon Rahm WIN +1200
Rory McIlroy TOP 5 +175
Matt Fitzpatrick TOP 10 +425
Robert MacIntyre TOP 20 +175
Fade of the Week
Picking fades can be tricky since you are not betting against someone directly, but rather avoiding chalk that might not deliver. This week, I am fading Jordan Spieth.
There is no question that Spieth has been the most consistent Open Championship player over the past decade. And congratulations to him and his wife on welcoming their second child, Sullivan.
But between the addition of baby Sully and the current state of Spieth’s game, I am staying away. He finished T20 at Royal Portrush in 2019, and his form just does not give me much confidence right now.
FADE: Jordan Spieth WIN +6000
FADE: Jordan Spieth Top 10 +475
FADE: Jordan Spieth Top 20 +260
Good luck this week Sandman Nation, enjoy the Open, and may all your bets land squarely on the green.
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