Welcome back Sandman Nation! We cashed at a scorching 64% clip on our NFL picks last year, and we are back for more in 2025. Week 1 is always a little tricky since we don’t fully know what to expect from a lot of teams yet, but I feel good about all three of these plays. Let’s get into it.
Cowboys (+8.5) at Eagles
I understand the circus around Dallas right now, with Jerry Jones trading away the franchise’s defensive cornerstone for what looked like pennies on the dollar. Add in the fact that the Cowboys were crushed in their last two meetings with Philadelphia, and it is easy to see why public sentiment is so lopsided toward the defending Super Bowl champs.
But let’s not forget what else happened after last year’s 7-10 debacle. Dallas cleaned house, starting with the firing of HC Mike McCarthy and bringing in Brian Schottenheimer, who I believe will bring a new energy and focus to this team. But what really excites me is the improvements I see on defense, despite the loss of Micah Parsons.
Matt Eberflus is in as the new defensive coordinator and, whatever you think of his head coaching stint in Chicago, he knows how to coach defense and his schemes travel. Linebacker additions Kenneth Murray and Jack Sanborn immediately bolster the second level, and defensive tackle Kenny Clark, dismissed as a throw-in from the Parsons trade, still has plenty left to clog the run. With those moves and other depth signings, it is hard to imagine this group staying anywhere near a bottom-five unit.
On offense, there is plenty to like as well. Dak Prescott is back healthy, CeeDee Lamb remains one of the league’s top receivers, and I may be in the minority but I think the run game will be just fine with Javonte Williams leading the way, backed by Miles Sanders and rookie Jaydon Blue. Philadelphia is obviously still loaded with talent, but the Super Bowl hangover is real, and it is fair to expect some regression.
Dallas has actually taken 9 of the last 15 in this rivalry, they are 5–2 ATS in their last seven games, and getting 8.5 points is massive for a divisional matchup in Week 1. This is exactly the kind of spot where the market overreacts to headlines and recent history. So I will happily take the Cowboys and the big spread here.
The Pick: Cowboys +8.5
Bengals (-5.5) at Browns
I usually avoid picking my favorite teams for Bierman’s Best Bets because I want to stay impartial. That means you will not often see me backing Michigan or the Bengals. But this one is simply too good to pass up.
The Browns and Saints look destined to battle for the NFL’s worst record and the number one draft pick next April. Cleveland’s offense is a complete mess, and if Joe Flacco is their best option at quarterback, good luck. Myles Garrett is a top 10 player in this league, but he is about the only guy on that roster who truly scares me.
Say what you want about Cincinnati’s defense (and believe me, it still isn’t great) but the re-signing of Trey Hendrickson matters. Along with a few smaller upgrades, the unit should at least be competent enough to give Joe Burrow and the Bengals’ offense the chance to dictate games. And this offense is not just good, it could be the best in the NFL. Burrow, Chase, Higgins, Brown, and yes, even TE Drew Sample, who always seems to make a clutch play when needed, give Cincinnati firepower at every level.
Another reason I love this play is that Zac Taylor’s teams have historically started slow. He rarely plays starters in the preseason, and as a result the Bengals began 0-2, 0-2, and 0-3 the past three years. But this preseason felt different. The starters saw much more time, and Burrow even played into the second quarter in several games.
The Bengals are hungry to reestablish themselves among the AFC’s elite, and I think they will punish their in-state rivals on Sunday to start the season in grand fashion.
Give me the Bengals to easily cover the 5.5 against the woeful Browns.
The Pick: Bengals -5.5
Bucs at Falcons (+2.5)
I believe Atlanta is set up for a big year. I have them over 8.5 wins and picked to take the division. Despite all the hype I’m hearing around this Bucs team, let’s be clear: Tampa Bay is no juggernaut. They won the South at 10-7 last season, and their offense was undoubtedly impressive behind a rejuvenated Baker Mayfield. But this week they will be without Chris Godwin, and while Emeka Egbuka has plenty of hype, he is still a rookie. I am also not sold on Bucky Irving, despite a solid 2024 at running back. And their defense last year was below average.
Atlanta spent the offseason addressing defensive shortcomings with several key signings, including DE Leonard Floyd, DT Morgan Fox, and LB Divine Deablo, along with other quality role players.
The offense excites me even more. I see QB Michael Penix Jr. making a significant leap in year two. He has Drake London, who broke out in 2024, as his primary target, and Bijan Robinson, one of the league’s best backs, to lean on and keep defenses honest.
The Falcons beat the Buccaneers in both meetings last season, and now they are getting 2.5 points at home? In a divisional matchup, especially at home and in Week 1, that number is too good to pass up. I am taking the Falcons +2.5 to open the season with a statement.
The Pick: Falcons +2.5
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