Last Week: 2-3
Season Record: 7-7-1
Sometimes the betting game can be flat out maddening. The Temple pick was a complete whiff, while Oregon laying the big number at Northwestern and UAB giving 11.5 against Akron were both much closer to hitting than the final scores suggest. None of those were true bad beats, but we are due for a few of those bounces to fall our way as the season goes on.
This week I am going full Road Warrior. All five of my picks are riding with road teams. It is unusual, but the research and numbers back it up. Time to get back above .500 and start building a winning streak with our best bets.
SMU (+6.5) at TCU
I predicted TCU to have a strong season in the Big 12, knowing that Sonny Dykes is a top-notch coach. Despite the post-championship game 5–7 blip in 2023, the Horned Frogs are a consistently solid program. This year they are off to a 2-0 start, with a thrashing of North Carolina that spoiled Belichick’s college coaching debut, followed by a tidy win over Abilene Christian. Quarterback Josh Hoover has been outstanding, throwing for more than 600 yards and six touchdowns with just one interception. He looks like the real deal.
Now comes SMU, and this matchup is one of the great under-the-radar rivalries in college football. The schools are only 40 miles apart, and they play for the Iron Skillet, a trophy that carries major weight in the Dallas–Fort Worth Metroplex. SMU, fresh off a College Football Playoff berth last season, stumbled in a week-two shootout with Baylor, falling 48–45. Their two wins have come against weak opponents, and their defense has been shaky early, but the offense remains electric with quarterback Kevin Jennings leading the way. Rhett Lashlee is one of the most underrated coaches in America, and he will have the Mustangs ready.
TCU may prevail, but laying 6.5 points in a rivalry this tight feels like too much. These are two fairly even teams, and in a game like this, the smarter play is taking the Mustangs plus the points.
The Pick: SMU +6.5
West Virginia (+11.5) at Kansas
Staying in the Big 12 and speaking of great rivalry games, West Virginia toppled Pitt in the Backyard Brawl on Saturday, pulling out a 31–24 overtime win. This is a different Mountaineer team than in recent years, with toughness, confidence, and preparation instilled by Rich Rodriguez in his second stint in Morgantown. They rank in the top 50 nationally in both total offense and total defense, showing balance with a strong run game. Quarterback Nicco Marchiol has impressed as well, going 19-for-25 against the Panthers while leading his team to the win.
Now they head to Lawrence to face a solid Kansas team led by one of my favorite coaches, Lance Leipold. Quarterback Jalon Daniels feels like he has been in Lawrence forever, and he remains a dual-threat weapon who can hurt defenses with both his arm and his legs. The Jayhawks lost two weeks ago on the road to their chief rival Missouri, 42–31, but there was no shame in that effort against a strong Tiger team.
Kansas is good and should win this game, but these two squads have been too similar in offensive and defensive production so far this year to justify a double-digit spread. Rich Rod has West Virginia playing with a new edge, and 11.5 points is simply too many. I like the Mountaineers to keep this one close throughout.
The Pick: West Virginia +11.5
Toledo (-13.5) at Western Michigan
Don’t let Western Michigan’s 0-3 record fool you. Two of those losses came against Big Ten opponents Michigan State and Illinois, and the other was a 33–30 squeaker against 3-0 North Texas. So while their record looks bad, they may not be quite as poor as it suggests. That said, their offense has been dreadful, ranking 132nd out of 134 FBS teams after three weeks and averaging just 241 yards per game. The defense has been slightly better, but still below average.
Now in comes MAC favorite Toledo, where Jason Candle has built a consistently strong program. The Rockets opened the season with a trip to Lexington, where they battled SEC foe Kentucky tough before falling 24–16. Since then, they’ve poured in 105 points across their last two games. Toledo currently ranks 33rd in the nation in total offense at 465 yards per game, and their defense has been just as sharp, sitting 16th nationally while allowing a little more than 330 yards per contest.
Toledo is by far the superior team, and even on the road, it’s hard to see Western Michigan moving the ball consistently or slowing down the Rockets’ balanced attack. I have no problem laying the points here so give me Toledo -13.5.
The Pick: Toledo -13.5
Boise State (-10.5) at Air Force
I mentioned earlier that Lance Leipold is one of my favorite coaches in the country, but Troy Calhoun isn’t far behind. He has been in Colorado Springs for an incredible 19 years, compiling a 136–90 record in that span. Despite last year’s 5–7 mark, I said in our preseason Mountain West podcast that I liked Air Force as a dark horse to win the conference and I was on the over 5.5 wins. A lot of that confidence comes from Calhoun’s leadership.
That said, this team just gave up 49 points to Utah State, and that is deeply concerning with Boise State coming to town. The Broncos looked bafflingly bad in their opener at South Florida, but I’m chalking that up to Week 1 rust, the cross-country travel, and the Florida heat. Call them excuses if you want, but I’m still bullish on Spencer Danielson’s squad. I continue to believe Maddux Madsen is one of the best quarterbacks in the Group of Five.
Playing against an option team like Air Force is always tricky, but Danielson has surely studied the tape and will have his defense better prepared to slow it down. On the other side of the ball, I don’t see Boise State scoring fewer than 40. I love the Broncos in this spot and will gladly lay the 10.5.
The Pick: Boise State -10.5
Illinois (+4.5) at Indiana
Finally, let’s head to the Big 10 for a top 25 clash between two surprise darlings of the past couple seasons. Bret Bielema’s undefeated and top ten ranked Fighting Illini visit Bloomington to face Curt Cignetti’s #19 ranked Hoosiers in a early season super compelling matchup unde rth lights that could cause some waves in the Big 10 and CFP race.
Let’s start with Indiana who have outscored their opponents 156-23. They are ranked in the top 10 in both total offense and total defense and Cignetti is building a very solid program in Bloomington that will be a tough out for years to come. That said, their opponents have been against Old Dominion, Kennesaw State, and Indiana State so not exactly Murderers’s Row.
Now let’s look at Illinois, who in similar fashion have throttled their first three opponents to go undefeated by a combined 135-22. QB Luke Altmeyer is one of the best in the Big 10 and has thrown 8 touchdowns and no INTs on the young season. They can also rely on a steady running game led by Kaden Feagin when needed. And I feel like Illinois’ convincing 45-10 win at Duke is pretty impressive.
I personally cannot wait to watch this game and it is going to be a close one, but getting 4.5 points is too many here so give me the Fighting Bielemas and the points and I’ll take it with confidence.
I’ll cut right to the chase. I love Illinois getting the points in this matchup. They have won their first three game by a combined 135-22,
The Pick: Illinois +4.5
Want more Sandman? Come connect with us here at sandmansports.com/onestopshop
