Week 2 brought an explosion of offense that was mostly missing in Week 1, and the betting results reflected it as spreads and totals shifted dramatically with the evolution of NFL offenses.
We went 1-2 last week (thank you New England), as the Cowboys failed to cover because of the new Russell Wilson–Malik Nabers connection, and our Denver–Indy under fell apart with the continued renaissance of Daniel Jones.
In Week 3, as teams settle into more defined identities, we are taking a swing at early trend-based bets while staying away from a matchup defined by shaky quarterback situations. Let’s dive in.
Best Moneyline of the Week: LA Chargers (-160 vs Denver Broncos)
The Chargers have been rolling, with Jim Harbaugh crafting this roster closer to his vision. Justin Herbert has been sharp, showing off both accuracy and pocket movement. Keenan Allen’s return has gone smoothly, while the duo of Najee Harris and Omarion Hampton is grinding down defenses with a physical running style.
Even more surprising has been the Chargers’ defense, especially the secondary, which has limited deep plays and forced teams into short, mistake-free drives. Denver has had flashes under Bo Nix, but their run game is inconsistent and the defense has not been as strong as expected. Right now, Los Angeles looks like a full tier above the Broncos.
Best Spread of the Week: Green Bay Packers (-7.5 at Cleveland Browns)
The Packers might be the best team in the league through two weeks. While it is still early, what seems clear is that they are significantly better than Cleveland.
The Browns have looked lost, first falling to a Bengals team in chaos, then getting blown out by the Ravens. Meanwhile, Jordan Love and the Packers’ offense have been putting up points with ease, and their defense has already held both the Lions and Commanders under 20. Even with a bigger spread, this one feels safe, as it is hard to imagine Joe Flacco finding much success against this defense.
Best Over/Under of the Week: Rams at Eagles (under 46.5)
The Eagles continue to lean on a run-heavy system that plays to their size and depth at running back, while their defense has already held the Cowboys and Chiefs to a combined 37 points.
The Rams are undefeated but inconsistent, scraping past Houston in Week 1 before exploding against Tennessee in Week 2. Against this Philadelphia defense, expect a much lower ceiling. With both sides leaning on the ground game, this matchup has the makings of a grind-it-out contest. The under at 46.5 looks like a strong play.
Game to Pass On: Bengals at Vikings
Cincinnati and Minnesota will both be starting backup quarterbacks, and that makes this game one of the least predictable on the board. Jake Browning has been serviceable in relief for the Bengals, but the sample is mixed. Carson Wentz remains a complete wild card, especially in an offense that has looked disjointed even with JJ McCarthy under center.
This game could take any number of turns, and there is no strong angle to trust. Anyone betting here is rolling the dice, and it is smarter to pass.
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