Week 4 gave us a clearer picture of the mid-tier Top-25, with several matchups between teams ranked in the teens and low 20s. The AP Poll saw some big swings, while a few heavyweights held steady. Here’s how it all played out and some betting thoughts as we look ahead:
Top Games of the Week
Auburn @ Oklahoma (17-24)
In one of the week’s marquee matchups, both offenses found their rhythm late, setting up a frantic fourth quarter. John Mateer capped it off with a game-winning touchdown run inside the final five minutes.
Oklahoma continues to show they are serious about turning things around, while Auburn will take more criticism for this loss than perhaps they deserve. Still, it dents their playoff hopes and likely knocks them out of a New Year’s Six conversation.
SMU @ TCU (24-35)
With both teams hovering around the Top-25, this was a season-defining showdown. Neither side grabbed control until the fourth quarter, when TCU exploded for 14 unanswered points to secure the win.
The Horned Frogs vaulted into the Top-25, while SMU didn’t receive a single vote in the latest poll, dropping behind teams like UCF and North Texas. That fourth quarter may end up being the pivot point of the season for both squads.
Michigan @ Nebraska (30-27)
The Wolverines flirted with disaster, letting Nebraska climb within three points late. Dylan Raiola had his best outing of the year for the Huskers, but costly sacks killed their upset bid.
On the Michigan side, QB Bryce Underwood was steady, but it was running back Justice Haynes who made the difference. His ability to extend drives and control tempo helped Michigan climb two spots in the rankings instead of falling out.
AP Top 25 Risers and Fallers
Risers
- #11 Indiana (up 8): A 63–10 demolition of Illinois was the biggest statement of the weekend, pushing the Hoosiers into legitimate playoff contention.
- #12 Texas Tech (up 5): The Red Raiders rolled past Utah 41–17 in a battle of ranked teams, earning the week’s second-biggest jump.
- #7 Oklahoma (up 4): A narrow win over Auburn pushed the Sooners into the Top 10. The margin wasn’t convincing, but at 4-0 they can’t be ignored.
Fallers
- #23 Illinois (down 14): Losing to Indiana was one thing, but a 53-point blowout has likely ended their playoff dreams.
- Auburn (unranked): A close loss to a Top-10 team shouldn’t be devastating, but undefeated resumes elsewhere pushed the Tigers out.
- #17 Alabama (down 3): A three-spot dip during a bye week is frustrating, but meaningless if the Tide take care of business next time out.
Betting Strategy: Adjusting After Week 4
Call It on Clemson
There’s no value in betting on Clemson right now. Even if spreads look enticing, this offense hasn’t shown the firepower to cover, even against weaker opponents.
Take the Over on Vanderbilt
Vandy’s offense is red hot, averaging 47.5 points per game, while the defense continues to give up plenty. Until something changes, the over remains a strong play.
Approach Penn State v. Oregon With Caution
Both teams look like national title contenders, but neither has faced an opponent of this caliber. Expect a lot of betting enthusiasm here, but the matchup deserves careful breakdown before you commit.
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