Week 3 delivered another 1-2 record as some surprising finishes spoiled the slate. We cashed the Chargers moneyline, but a furious Eagles second-half surge ruined our LA-Philly total, and the Packers’ injuries up front contributed to their first loss of the season against Cleveland, costing us on the spread.
Now we turn the page to Week 4, where tight lines and mounting injuries make for tricky reads. Momentum from Week 3 is a key factor in this week’s picks, while one quarterback change makes a once-straightforward matchup too unpredictable to touch.
Best Moneyline of the Week: Seattle Seahawks (-116 at Arizona Cardinals)
This Thursday Night matchup features two 2-1 teams, but their résumés are not equal. Seattle carries a +41 point differential compared to Arizona’s +11, and the Seahawks’ offense has found multiple ways to win.
The Cardinals, meanwhile, lose James Conner for the season and face an uphill battle offensively. With the spread tight, the safest angle is Seattle on the moneyline to protect against a narrow one-point win.
Best Spread of the Week: Washington Commanders (-1.5 at Atlanta Falcons)
Atlanta’s 30-point shutout loss to Carolina was alarming, and it is hard to back this team against anyone right now. Washington enters with questions of its own as Jayden Daniels has been limited in practice and Terry McLaurin awaits further medical evaluation. The good news is that Marcus Mariota kept the offense moving last week against Las Vegas and is a suitable fill-in again if called upon.
Atlanta’s defense has been leaky, and its offense even worse. Regardless of who starts under center for Washington, the Commanders are positioned to cover a small number.
Best Over/Under of the Week: Bears at Raiders (Over 47.5)
When two capable offenses meet two vulnerable defenses, the over is in play. Chicago allowed 52 to the Lions in week 2, while Las Vegas surrendered 41 points to Washington last week without Jayden Daniels.
These two offenses combined for 55 points last week, and with Caleb Williams and Geno Smith both in rhythm, another high-scoring shootout feels likely.
Game to Pass On: Chargers at Giants
This game looks tempting, but it is better avoided. With rookie Jaxson Dart confirmed as the starter for New York, there is too much uncertainty. The Chargers are favored, and I get it, but two things typically happen in this scenario. One, the rookie is flustered and makes alot of mistakes. Or two, the quarterback does well because there is no tape for the defense to prep with. Dart could falter, or he could catch fire. That uncertainty will keep me away from this one.
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