We stayed cold with another 1–2 week, but it feels like we are starting to get a better read and are close to a breakout. I am not one for excuses, but it is worth noting that a late, fluky safety in the 49ers game cost us that play. The Dallas loss is on me since I should know better than to trust that team. The Lions bet was as straightforward as it gets and I was able to capitalize on it personally in lucrative fashion.
Last Week 1-2
Season YTD: 3-6
Saints (+16.5) at Bills
The Saints may be the worst team in the NFL and the Bills look headed to the Super Bowl, but 16.5 points is still an outrageous number in a league built on parity. Historically in the last decade, NFL underdogs getting 14 or more points have covered over 55% of the time, with recent years pushing closer to 60%. That trend alone makes this line intriguing.
For fun perspective (but not truly relevant), the Saints have not been this big of an underdog since 1985, when they were 16-point dogs against the 49ers where they not only covered, but won outright 20-17. This week’s line is the biggest we have seen all season by several points.
Yes, New Orleans just got embarrassed by Seattle in a 44-13 blowout, but that game looks more like an outlier to me than a rule. Before that, they played Arizona and San Francisco to one-score finals and their defense still ranks in the top half of the league in yards allowed. Offensively, they are certainly not explosive but more competent than most realize, sitting 19th overall at 302 yards per game.
The Saints are not winning in Buffalo, but pride and history say they will keep this closer than the number suggests.
The Pick: Saints +16.5
Browns at Lions (-9.5)
The Browns boast the league’s top ranked defense, allowing just 204 yards per game. The Lions counter with the number three offense, piling up nearly 394 yards and 34 points per game. It is strength on strength, but Detroit’s balance gives them the edge.
Cleveland’s defense looks great on paper, but they still allow more than 22 points per game because their offense repeatedly puts them in bad positions. The Lions will exploit that. Last week’s upset over Green Bay was a nice surprise for the Browns, but the Packers are not on Detroit’s offensive level. Jared Goff and company will not hang 40, but 28 to 35 points is well within reach.
Detroit is not just about the passing game either. They rank fifth in the league in rushing, and while Cleveland has been stout against the run at just 57 yards allowed per game, this will be their toughest test yet. The real issue is that Cleveland’s offense sits in the bottom ten and cannot keep up in a shootout.
This sets up as the classic letdown spot, a team riding high off one upset before crashing back to reality. Detroit is a tier above, and at home they should win comfortably by double digits.
The Pick: Lions -9.5
Chargers (-6.5) at Giants
There are two schools of thought when it comes to a rookie quarterback making his first start. Either he catches a defense off guard with no film available and strikes rookie gold, or he is overwhelmed by the speed and physicality of the NFL and crumbles. I am banking on the latter here.
Jaxson Dart has talent and is certainly an upgrade over Russell Wilson, but Jim Harbaugh and Jesse Minter will not make it easy. Expect a heavy dose of confusion and pressure on the young quarterback. His top weapon, Malik Nabers, is also dealing with an injury, which leaves the Giants in an even tougher spot. They are likely to fall behind early, and that means Dart will be forced to throw rather than leaning on Cam Skattebo to establish balance. When that happens, mistakes will follow.
The Chargers have a top ten defense and the Giants rank near the bottom. Los Angeles also brings the sixth ranked offense, so you can be sure they will put up plenty of points. The combination of a tough defense, a high powered offense, and an inexperienced rookie quarterback spells trouble. The Giants will not be able to keep pace, and the Chargers should roll to a comfortable win.
The Pick: Chargers -6.5
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