Week 5 was full of Top-25 matchups, and one theme became clear by the end: we still don’t know who’s the best of that bunch, or where they should rank right now.
We had 4 Top-25 matchups this week, and each of them ended with the lower-seeded team coming out with the win. While most fans will start to feel comfortable about where their teams are sitting in the rankings, we’re not even halfway through the season yet, and it’s a good reminder that things will continue to change dramatically in the weeks to come.
Top Games of the Week
Oregon @ Penn State (30-24)
Easily the biggest game and outcome of the week, the Oregon Ducks walked into Penn State the underdog and came out with a thrilling overtime victory that’s launched them to #2 in the AP Polls.
Dante Moore was clutch orchestrating the OT win, while Penn State folded under the pressure at the end. James Franklin’s record against Top 10 teams drops to 4-21, leading some to wonder if he’s ultimately the coach to get Penn State to a championship title, or if the Nittany Lions have hit their ceiling with Franklin at the helm.
Alabama @ Georgia (24-21)
After an opening season misstep against FSU, Alabama has quickly turned their season around, and now has jumped back into the upper echelon of the Top 25 rankings with a massive win against the Bulldogs.
The difference was in the passing game, where Ty Simpson was able to effectively move the ball downfield, while Gunner Stockton struggled to provide passing support for Quintavious Johnson’s effective rushing. It’s a tough loss for Georgia, who will need a big win later in the year to pull them back up the rankings.
LSU @ Ole Miss (19-24)
LSU took a massive loss to Ole Miss backup QB and former 0-star recruit Trindad Chambliss. The Div-II champ and Austin Simmons backup came into the game looking to make his mark against the toughest competition of his career to date, and he made it clear he belongs in the FBS.
Simmons put up 314 passing yards and a touchdown while rushing for an additional 71 yards, leading the Rebels to a 24-19 win. LSU’s Garrett Nussmeier passed for under 200 yards, struggling to sort out the Rebels defense.
AP Top 25 Risers and Fallers
Risers
- #4 Ole Miss (up 9): The 24-19 win against LSU wasn’t just big for Chambliss, but also jettisoned the Rebels into the Top 5 of the AP Polls.
- #10 Alabama (up 7): The Crimson Tide sneak into the Top 10 after their win in Georgia, slowly clawing back their ranking since their opening week loss.
- #2 Oregon (up 4): The Ducks now sit directly behind the Buckeyes as the #2 team in the country after their overtime thriller against the Nittany Lions.
Fallers
- #13 LSU (down 9): The Tigers essentially swap spots with the Rebels after the loss, dropping out of the Top 10 and needing to find an answer on offense going into the rest of the season.
- #12 Georgia (down 7): Georgia also falls out of the Top 10, and won’t have another big test until they face the Rebels on October 18th, where they’ll be gunning for a huge win.
- #18 Florida State (down 10): The early poll climber of the season, FSU drops massively after an ugly defensive performance against the unranked Virginia Cavaliers.
Betting Strategy: Adjusting After Week 5
Don’t Be Afraid Of The Over In Non-Top 25 Games
College offenses are starting to heat up across the different conferences, and the trend will likely continue. While the top teams are keeping games in range, don’t hesitate to hit the over if you find a good matchup outside of that.
Be Aware Of Which Teams Sit Just Outside The Top 25
It can be tempting to just throw moneyline parlays together of Top 25 teams taking on unranked opponents. There are upsets and close results consistently this year are near-Top 25 teams remind us that while the rankings stop, it doesn’t mean there’s a massive gap in talent.
Be Wary Of Georgia Tech
The Yellow Jackets have been a huge surprise so far this year, and their bruising style of football can wear opponents down in a game. However, it will also wear their own guys down as the season goes on, and as seen with the Wake Forest game, it may already be slowing them down a bit.
College Football Week 5 Recap: Biggest Games, Rankings, and Betting Tips
Week 5 delivered four Top-25 matchups, and the common thread was chaos. In every case, the lower-ranked team pulled off the win. Fans may feel like they have a sense of where the rankings stand, but we are not even halfway through the season, and the landscape will shift plenty in the weeks ahead. Let’s take a look back to spotlight the premier games and best performances, what we learned and how it affects the national picture, and how it all might shape our future betting decisions.
Top Games of the Week
Oregon at Penn State (30-24)
The marquee matchup of the weekend ended with Oregon leaving Happy Valley with a thrilling overtime victory that vaulted them to No. 2 in the AP Polls.
Dante Moore showed poise in orchestrating the OT win, while Penn State faltered late. James Franklin’s record against Top 10 teams now sits at 4-21, reigniting questions about whether he can realistically take the Nittany Lions to a championship or if this is their ceiling.
Alabama at Georgia (24-21)
After a stumble against Florida State in the opener, Alabama has quickly rebuilt momentum. The Crimson Tide jumped back into the Top 10 with a signature win over Georgia.
The difference was in the passing game. Ty Simpson moved the ball effectively for Alabama, while Georgia’s Gunner Stockton struggled to supplement Quintavious Johnson’s strong rushing effort. The Bulldogs will need a marquee victory later in the season to restore their standing.
LSU at Ole Miss (19-24)
Ole Miss turned to backup quarterback Trinidad Chambliss, a former Division II champion and unheralded recruit, and he delivered. With Austin Simmons sidelined, Chambliss threw for 314 yards and a touchdown, added 71 rushing yards, and led the Rebels to a 24-19 upset.
On the other side, LSU’s Garrett Nussmeier managed fewer than 200 passing yards as the Tigers’ offense sputtered. The result launched Ole Miss into the Top 5 while sending LSU tumbling.
AP Top 25 Risers and Fallers
Risers
- No. 4 Ole Miss (up 9): Chambliss’ breakout performance and the Rebels’ upset over LSU pushed them firmly into the Top 5.
- No. 10 Alabama (up 7): The Tide return to the Top 10 with their win in Athens and continue their steady climb since the opening week loss.
- No. 2 Oregon (up 4): The Ducks now sit directly behind Ohio State after their overtime win at Penn State.
Fallers
- No. 13 LSU (down 9): The Tigers swap spots with Ole Miss and must fix their surprising offensive issues quickly to stay in the hunt.
- No. 12 Georgia (down 7): Georgia falls out of the Top 10 and will circle the October 18 meeting with Ole Miss as their chance to bounce back.
- No. 18 Florida State (down 10): The early-season darlings plummeted after an ugly defensive showing against unranked Virginia.
Betting Strategy: Adjusting After Week 5
Don’t Shy Away From the Over in Non-Top 25 Games
College offenses are heating up across conferences, and that trend should continue. Top matchups may be tighter, but outside of the Top 25, there is often value in the over.
Watch Teams Just Outside the Rankings
It can be tempting to load up on parlays with Top 25 teams against unranked opponents, but the near-ranked programs have shown time and again there is not always a major talent gap. Upsets are waiting.
Be Cautious With Georgia Tech
The Yellow Jackets have been one of the season’s surprises with their physical style. That approach can wear down opponents, but it also takes a toll on their own roster. As shown in the Wake Forest matchup, fatigue may already be catching up.
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