All four Division Series matchups are set after an enthralling wild-card round, featuring three winner-takes-all games on Thursday.
The four teams to have progressed from the wild-card round have already used their premier arms to get this far, while the teams that had the luxury of a first-round bye have the pick of their rotation at the start of the series.
Of course, there are conflicting theories on whether the break is a benefit for the top two division winners in each league. Several wild-card teams have gotten hot and rolled through the Division Series since this format was introduced.
Here’s how the eight remaining teams stack up heading into the Division Series.
1. Seattle Mariners
These Mariners are more than dark horses to win the World Series. Their aggressive trade deadline moves didn’t have an immediate impact, but it soon powered September’s best offense and a surge which saw Seattle celebrate its first division title since 2001.
Logan Gilbert, Bryan Woo, and Luis Castillo are the best top three in the American League. The lineup isn’t packed with big names like the Dodgers, Yankees, or Phillies, but it has by far the highest wRC+ since the start of last month.
It’s a favorable matchup in the ALDS. Their pitching gives them a great opportunity against the Yankees or Jays in the ALCS.
2. Los Angeles Dodgers
The regular season didn’t live up to the preseason hype. Los Angeles’ two-game demolition of the Reds certainly did. The Dodgers were led by dominant displays from Blake Snell and Yoshinobu Yamamoto, while the offense blew away a strong Reds pitching staff.
The fact the Dodgers were so impressive while keeping Shohei Ohtani and Tyler Glasnow in reserve is alarming. They would be in first place here if the bullpen could be trusted in tight games.
Los Angeles is favored to beat the Phillies and should have no problem dispatching the Cubs or Brewers in the NLCS.
3. New York Yankees
Sportsbooks price the Yankees as clear AL favorites. That seems a little generous for a team that can’t rely on its bullpen and has to get past the team that beat them to the division to even reach the ALCS.
New York deserves to be favored over the Jays, but this team is hardly a juggernaut. Few other playoff teams would have Amed Rosario in the middle of the lineup, regardless of matchups, and Anthony Volpe’s home run in the wild-card round shouldn’t detract from his mediocre offensive season.
Cam Schlittler’s performance in Game 3 nudged the Yankees up a position in these rankings. He’s looked like a future star in his short big-league career, and that’s exactly what Aaron Boone has needed behind Max Fried and Carlos Rodón.
4. Philadelphia Phillies
Just as Schlittler’s ascension pushed the Yankees up, Zack Wheeler’s absence puts a ceiling on the Phillies. Their chances against the Dodgers would be much better if Wheeler was taking the mound.
Cristopher Sánchez, Ranger Suárez, and Jesús Luzardo ensure the Phils still have a competitive rotation, but it takes it from arguably the strongest group in the majors to an above-average staff.
The offense was trending in the right direction in September, with the highest wRC+ in the National League. They need to be at their very best against this Dodgers rotation.
As ever, the bullpen is a question mark. Wheeler’s absence makes it harder to use starters in the relief corps.
5. Toronto Blue Jays
Toronto held off the Yankees to win the AL East. A few days to rest and regroup might have served the Jays well after a fierce battle to win their first division title in a decade.
The offense slowed a little down the stretch, and the bullpen has been inconsistent. There are some concerns about the rotation behind Kevin Gausman. Still, there is a large sample of the Jays being one of the best offenses in baseball.
The lineup has done a great job at avoiding strikeouts. While that’s far from a guarantee of success, bat-to-ball skills are vital when facing the electric stuff of the game’s best pitchers with playoff-charged adrenaline.
There’s a world where Toronto’s lineup sends the Yankees home, setting up a tantalizing ALCS with Seattle.
6. Chicago Cubs
It was a toss-up between the Cubs and Brewers for sixth. Chicago’s showing down the stretch and their gutsy wild-card win over the Padres gives them the edge.
This Cubs team has regained its offensive groove. Michael Busch, Kyle Tucker, and Seiya Suzuki represent a dangerous heart of the order, with other contributors further down the lineup.
Cade Horton’s potential return towards the end of the NLDS could prove pivotal. Chicago’s rotation doesn’t look especially imposing without Horton or the sidelined Justin Steele. Horton’s return solidifies the group, with Matthew Boyd, Jameson Taillon, and Shota Imanaga.
7, Milwaukee Brewers
Much like the Jays, the Brewers didn’t finish the season as strongly as they would have hoped. Their offense was middling down the stretch. Some of their starters seemed fatigued. They went 19-21 from August 16.
The week off could serve the younger Milwaukee arms well. Brandon Woodruff, who only returned from the injured list midway through the campaign, is fresh. Freddy Peralta is going to get Cy Young votes.
It is definitely possible that their rotation puts it together and they reach the World Series for the first time since 1982. That would require an inexperienced offense getting back to its best, too.
The bullpen is potentially the best of the remaining teams; that feels like the most reliable area of the team.
8. Detroit Tigers
Detroit made it past Cleveland. Reaching the ALDS is the bare minimum for a team that held a 15.5-game AL Central lead a matter of weeks ago.
Nine runs scored in three games doesn’t inspire a great deal of confidence against a stacked Seattle rotation. Tarik Skubal probably won’t start until Game 2. The Tigers’ late-season slump can’t be written off as a thing of the past just yet and they are rightfully clear underdogs for this matchup.
It wouldn’t be a surprise if they got red-hot and went on a deep run, considering their early season form, but it doesn’t seem likely and they sit comfortably at the bottom of these rankings.
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