Week 5 was a learning experience, as we went 1-3 and officially learned not to bet against the Blue Devils. Our Cal–Boston College over/under was a narrow miss, and the Red Wolves could not match up with Louisiana–Monroe the way we expected. Thankfully, the Fighting Irish made quick work of the Razorbacks to at least cash the moneyline.
This week brings some fascinating lines that feel a little off. We have an SEC powerhouse with a strangely tight moneyline, a Top 25 team cast as the underdog to an unranked opponent, a couple of good-offense/bad-defense squads facing each other with a modest total, and a big underdog as our gut check of the week. Let’s dive in.
Best Moneyline Bet: Texas Longhorns (-200 at Florida Gators)
The Texas Longhorns have not been the dominant Top 5 squad many expected coming into the season, and they are still on our “no spread bets” list. But they remain a ranked team capable of winning consistently against inferior competition. Florida fits that description.
The Gators have endured a disastrous season and are not equipped to take on the Longhorns at any level. This could be low scoring early if Florida’s defense holds on for a half, but their broken offense cannot keep up. Texas is a solid moneyline value play here.
Best Spread Bet: Virginia Cavaliers (+7.5 at Louisville Cardinals)
This is the perfect example of riding the hot hand.
The Cavaliers pulled off a massive upset in Week 5, taking down Florida State in a high-scoring affair that vaulted them into the Top 25. While some believe that ranking is inflated (as the spread indicates), Virginia’s offense has been scoring at will all season and continues to show its potential.
Louisville is undefeated and clearly no pushover, so this is not a call for Virginia to be favored. Both teams are playing above expectations, but giving the Cavaliers more than a touchdown here feels like a strong value in what should be a close game.
Best Over/Under Bet: Air Force Falcons at Navy Midshipmen (Over 49.5)
In a combined eight games this season, these teams have scored fewer than 30 points only once (Navy last week against Rice). The total reflects their run-heavy styles, which keep the clock moving.
Still, both defenses rank outside the Top 50 in stop rate and points allowed per drive, with Air Force sitting dead last in the FBS. The clock will be running, but it will be running alongside long scoring plays.
Gut Check Bet: Syracuse Orange (+16.5 at SMU)
The Orange were dismantled by Duke last week, much to our regret, and it is no surprise to see them listed as heavy underdogs against SMU.
But the Mustangs have not been impressive either. Expected to contend for a Top 25 spot, SMU sits at 2-2 with both wins coming against low-level competition. While SMU should still win outright, the +16.5 number is enormous, and the Mustangs have not earned that kind of trust. Syracuse will stay within the number and may even threaten late with a potential upset bid.
Want more Sandman? Come connect with us here at sandmansports.com/onestopshop
