Last Week: 2-3
Season Record: 14-15-1
Well, we followed up last week’s 4-1 strong showing with a stumble backwards, but honestly I am not surprised. Both the Texas and Baylor picks started to worry me as the weekend got closer, and sure enough both blew up on us. This week’s card feels different though. There are several games that give me really strong feelings, and when the numbers back that up, I start to feel warm and fuzzy.
I didn’t intentionally plan it this way as I always start with gut feel, then back it up with the numbers, and my five strongest plays make the list. But I like that it ended up being all underdogs this weekend, because this is the stretch of the season when strange upsets always seem to pop up when you least expect them.
In case you are wondering about the “Spread-o-meter,” only four teams remain unbeaten against the spread: Memphis, Texas Tech, Utah State, and Louisiana Tech. None of them are on our card this week. On the flip side, only three teams are still winless against the spread: Penn State, SMU, and Sam Houston. I thought long and hard about taking Jacksonville State minus 7.5 against the Bearkats but passed once I dug into the numbers.
That leaves us with five more plays this week, and hopefully the start of another winning streak.
Alabama @ Missouri (+3)
Rumors of Alabama’s demise have been greatly exaggerated. After their opening loss to Florida State, the Tide have reeled off four straight wins, including an impressive 24-21 victory in Athens against Georgia and a clean, tidy win over plucky Vanderbilt last week. Ty Simpson has settled in at quarterback, the offense is clicking, and the defense looks much closer to Crimson Tide standards. They have righted the ship and remain a legitimate CFP contender.
But now comes a trip to Columbia to face a severely underrated Missouri team that no one is talking about. The Tigers rank No. 1 in total defense and No. 2 in total offense, a rare balance in today’s game. Quarterback Beau Pribula has deservedly gotten plenty of attention for his steady play, but running back Ahmad Hardy is the true star. Hardy leads the nation in rushing and will be a major challenge for Alabama’s 70th-ranked run defense.
Adding to the intrigue is a strange scheduling quirk. This will be Missouri’s sixth straight home game to start the season, so they are as comfortable as a team can be in their own stadium. A loud Faurot Field crowd, elite production on both sides of the ball, and the added bonus of being a home underdog make Missouri very appealing in this spot. I love the Tigers to cover, and possibly shock the Tide outright.
The Pick: Missouri +3
UCLA (+8.5) @ Michigan State
UCLA just pulled off the biggest upset of the season, stunning Penn State as 24.5-point underdogs and possibly putting James Franklin on the hot seat. It was a shocking result and huge credit goes to the Bruins, interim coach Tim Skipper, and quarterback Nico Iamaleava. His passing numbers were modest, but he more than made up for it with his legs, rushing for 128 yards and three touchdowns.
Yes, UCLA is still 1-4, and yes, there are plenty of flaws on this roster. A letdown after a win like that is always possible. But I see it the other way. Since DeShaun Foster was fired on September 14, the Bruins have looked like a different team. They nearly beat Northwestern on the road in Skipper’s debut, losing by only three, and then shocked Penn State in the Rose Bowl. That kind of performance builds confidence, and for a quarterback like Iamaleava, who badly needed it, that’s huge.
It is worth noting that UCLA’s four losses all came against opponents with winning records and a combined 15-5 overall. Michigan State, on the other hand, is no juggernaut. The defense has been serviceable, but the offense has been flat-out bad, averaging just 320 yards per game and putting up only 240 in last week’s double-digit loss to Nebraska. Their three wins are nothing to brag about either, coming against Western Michigan, Boston College by just two points, and Youngstown State.
Give me the team with a new coach bringing toughness, momentum from a massive upset, more talent than their record suggests, and more than a touchdown to work with. I like UCLA in this spot.
The Pick: UCLA +8.5
Indiana (+7.5) @ Oregon
I usually do not get good feelings about the biggest games on the slate, but here we are with me picking both Missouri–Alabama and Indiana–Oregon. And just like Missouri, I am rolling with the underdog.
These two teams are more alike than most people realize. Both rank in the top 10 nationally in offense and defense. Both have two of the best coaches in the Big Ten. Both are well rested after bye weeks. Oregon has been excellent, but outside of the Penn State win their schedule has been soft with FBS Montana State, 1-4 Oklahoma State, 0-6 Oregon State, and 3-2 Northwestern. And while the White Out win over Penn State looked impressive, UCLA’s upset of the Nittany Lions makes you wonder how good that win actually was.
Indiana’s schedule has not been brutal either, but they did deliver one of the most shocking results of the season, a 63-10 demolition of 5-1 Illinois. This is not your dad’s Hoosier team. Curt Cignetti has done a masterful job in Bloomington, quarterback Francisco Mendoza still belongs in the Heisman conversation, and this team has the toughness and talent to hang in Eugene.
I am not calling for the outright upset as Oregon is still a great team with Dante Moore at the controls. But getting more than a touchdown feels like too much, and I like Indiana to cover in what should be a much tighter game than most expect.
The Pick: Indiana +7.5
TCU @ Kansas State (+1.5)
Every season there is a week where several lines just look strange. This feels like one of those weeks. Take 5-0 UNLV, for example, only favored by 6.5 at home against 1-4 Air Force. That makes me pause long enough to almost want to grab Air Force in a contrarian move. Almost.
Instead, I am looking at another line that feels off. Kansas State is 2-4 and has been pretty disappointing so far. This week they host 4-1 TCU, whose only loss came by three points at Arizona State. On paper, it looks like the Frogs should roll.
But I have a sneaky feeling about Kansas State. They nearly knocked off Baylor in Waco on Saturday, and they did it by holding down the Bears’ top-ranked passing attack. Baylor leads the nation in passing yards, and K-State kept them under their average. Now the Wildcats face another high-flying passing game in TCU, but this time they get it at home.
Quarterback Avery Johnson finally looks like the player everyone expected, throwing for 339 yards and two touchdowns while rushing for 72 yards against Baylor. Chris Klieman is a good coach, and he knows his team has no margin for error if they want to make a bowl. All four of their losses this season have come by a combined 13 points, so they are in every game. Against a good but flawed TCU team, I like Kansas State to win outright and cover this small spread.
The Pick: Kansas State +1.5
North Carolina State (+22.5) @ Notre Dame
Despite sitting at 3-2 and leaving some fans frustrated, Notre Dame is still a very good football team. Their two losses came against top-10 opponents by a combined four points. Since then, they have ripped off three wins by a combined score of 140-50. They rank in the top 10 nationally in scoring offense and can put up points in a hurry.
North Carolina State is no pushover though. They have been inconsistent, but they are top 50 in both total offense and scoring offense. CJ Bailey ranks fourth in the nation in passing and Hollywood Smothers is second in rushing yards. The defense is average, but so is Notre Dame’s.
I am under no illusion that NC State is going into South Bend and leaving with a win. But a 22.5-point spread feels far too generous, especially with Notre Dame likely peeking ahead to their showdown with USC next week. I like the Wolfpack to keep this within two touchdowns, and with this many points on the board we will gladly take them.
The Pick: NC State +22.5
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