Another week, another 2-1 result for Three Picks and a Pass. Tampa Bay pulled off the minor upset with a three-point win over Seattle, while the Vikings barely squeaked out a cover with a four-point margin on a -3.5 spread. The miss came on Broncos-Eagles over, which fell nearly a touchdown short thanks to two defenses raising their game at the wrong time.
This week features one of the strangest moneylines of the season, a lopsided spread, and an over/under between two 4-1 juggernauts. The board offers plenty of betting potential, so let’s break it down.
Best Moneyline of the Week: Detroit Lions (+118 at Kansas City Chiefs)
This may be the most puzzling moneyline of the season. The Lions are 4-1, rolling off four straight wins after a tough opening loss to Green Bay. Their offense is thriving, and the defense looks revitalized, led by Aidan Hutchinson’s relentless edge pressure.
Kansas City, meanwhile, is coming off an ugly loss to Jacksonville. Travis Kelce looks old, Chris Jones seems bored, and Patrick Mahomes is pressing into mistakes. Vegas may be hesitant to fade the Chiefs dynasty, but the Lions should not be the underdog here. They’re the clear value bet.
Best Spread of the Week: Indianapolis Colts (-6.5 vs Arizona Cardinals)
Arizona just handed Tennessee its first win of the season in a game defined by a comedy of errors. Indianapolis, by contrast, crushed the Raiders with a 40-6 rout.
On paper, this is a matchup between two teams in completely different tiers. The Colts have the firepower and consistency to cover, and a -6.5 spread looks like one of the safest plays on the board.
Best Over/Under of the Week: 49ers at Buccaneers (Over 47.5)
Both San Francisco and Tampa Bay consistently put up points in the 25-to-35 range, and neither defense has been particularly imposing this season. Baker Mayfield continues his resurgence, while Mac Jones has stepped in admirably for an injured Brock Purdy, even if he took a beating last week.
As the season progresses, Vegas sharpens totals based on scoring averages, but this matchup screams shootout. Banking on the over feels like the right move.
Game to Pass On: Titans at Raiders
The Raiders are bad. The Titans might be worse. Geno Smith leads the league in interceptions and has lost his touch on the deep ball, once his calling card. Cam Ward is doing everything he can to hold the offense together, but there’s no burst around him.
This game is a true coin flip. With no clear edge on either side, it’s best to pass and save your money for a matchup with more direction.
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