After hitting 64 percent of our NFL picks last season, we opened 2025 with a bit of a stumble. The Cowboys got us off on the right foot by covering against the Eagles, but the Bengals looked awful in Cleveland and never came close to covering the 5.5. Then came one of our first semi-bad beats of the year as we had the Falcons +2.5, only to lose by three when Younghoe Koo missed a field goal at the buzzer that would have forced overtime.
That is the way it goes in the NFL betting world. We start the season 1-2, but Week 2 looks promising, so let’s dive into the picks.
Bears at Lions (-6)
The Bears looked good for three quarters against the Vikings, and I am convinced that Ben Johnson is the right coach to get this franchise back to its winning ways. I think he will have them back in the playoffs as early as next season. I am also hopeful about QB Caleb Williams. He threw for 210 yards and a touchdown while adding six carries for 58 yards and another score on the ground. If he continues to show that kind of dual-threat ability, he can take the next step as an NFL quarterback and give defenses a real problem. On the other side of the ball, I like what Chicago has in place. Yes, they gave up 27 points to Minnesota, but they allowed only 254 total yards, the seventh-lowest total in the league in Week 1. Things are starting to look up for Bears fans.
But I do not think those good vibes carry into this weekend. The Lions looked awful in Green Bay, managing just 246 yards and 13 points, but that came against what I now consider one of the three best defenses in football after the addition of Micah Parsons. I believe Detroit is angry, and Dan Campbell has spent all week getting his team back on track. In their home opener, there is no way he lets Ben Johnson come back and leave with a win. This is still one of the most explosive offenses in the NFL, and they will be facing a Chicago defense that, while solid on Monday night, was still going against a rookie quarterback in his first start and collapsed in the fourth quarter.
The Lions will establish the run with Jahmyr Gibbs and David Montgomery, which will open up the passing game for Amon-Ra St. Brown, Jameson Williams, and Sam LaPorta. While Detroit’s defense is not elite, Adrian Hutchinson is back healthy and should cause enough disruption to rattle Williams. I also expect turnovers to play a big role, and the Lions should win that battle. I like Detroit to win this game by at least a touchdown, so I am comfortable giving the six.
The Pick: Lions -6
Broncos (-1.5) at Colts
I love a good comeback and underdog story, and seeing Danny Dimes light it up last week in a 33-8 Colts rout of the Dolphins was great to watch. I would love to see Jones have a Sam Darnold type season where he revives his career. With Jonathan Taylor, Michael Pittman, and rookie tight end Ty Warren all starting off strong in Week 1, he has the tools around him to make that happen.
But let’s not forget Indianapolis benefited from three turnovers in that game, and while they scored on all seven of their possessions, that is not going to happen against an elite Denver defense on Sunday.
The Broncos squeaked out an ugly win at home against the Titans last week, and the narrative quickly shifted to negativity around their young quarterback Bo Nix. But they still won by eight and covered the spread despite turning the ball over four times. That is unlikely to repeat, and I expect much of the rust we saw from Nix and the offense will be gone in Week 2. I think Sean Payton will lean heavily on the run game, with the duo of RJ Harvey and JK Dobbins against a Colts front seven that only faced 12 rushing attempts last week because Miami fell behind so early. I also think we’ll see more success from Nix running the ball more frequently too.
Denver’s defense is suffocating and allowed just 133 total yards to Tennessee, the lowest total in the league in Week 1. The Colts will move the ball more effectively than the Titans did, but this is still Daniel Jones at quarterback, and Denver is the better squad from top to bottom. I like the Broncos to win on the road, and I am comfortable laying the 1.5.
The Pick: Broncos -1.5
Bills at Jets (+6.5)
I would prefer a full touchdown spread here, but I am still confident enough to list this game as a best bet. The Bills pulled off one of the most thrilling comebacks in Sunday Night Football history, erasing a 15-point deficit in the final four minutes and winning 41-40 on a last-second field goal. It was spectacular, and Josh Allen looked every bit the reigning MVP in that closing stretch.
But Buffalo got into that hole for a reason. Yes, they were playing a very good team, but their defense still surrendered 432 total yards and 40 points. Derrick Henry gashed them for 169 rushing yards, while Lamar Jackson added 70 on the ground. And now comes another opponent built to attack in the same way: the Jets. Breece Hall ran for 107 yards last week, and Justin Fields chipped in 48 more against a strong Steelers defense.
I am still not completely sold on Fields, and the Jets found a way to lose in typical fashion, but I liked what I saw from their offense. They can go toe to toe with the Bills, and this is a divisional matchup where the home team is getting almost a touchdown. Buffalo also comes in off an emotional one-point win in what many believe was a preview of the AFC Championship Game.
The Jets are not elite, but they will move the ball enough to hang in this one. At home, this is simply too many points, so give me the J-E-T-S.
The Pick: Jets +6.5
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