Rarely do I get too worked up over wins or losses these days. I know I’ll win some and lose some, and based on my past experience I’m confident that over the long run I’ll come out ahead. But that doesn’t mean certain losses don’t still sting and drive me crazy.
One of those happened Sunday in the Broncos-Colts game. We had Denver -1.5 as one of our best bets in this column, and they were up by two when the Colts missed a 60-yard field goal as time expired. It looked like we had the cover locked up. But then came the little yellow laundry. A very rare “leverage” penalty was called on a Broncos defender for trying to use a teammate to get a boost while attempting to block the kick. That flag moved the ball 15 yards closer, and on the second chance Colts kicker Spencer Shrader drilled it for the 29–28 win. A brutal bad beat.
But that’s in the past. We have three more games on the slate this week and plenty of season left to get back on track. I hate sitting at 2–4 right now, but I know it won’t last. And it may turn around this weekend. Let’s take a look at who we like in this week’s slate.
Last Week 1-2
Season YTD: 2-4
Cardinals at 49ers (-2.5)
This line opened with the 49ers favored by 1.5 and I loved it then, but I always go with the line the day I publish. It has since moved to 2.5, which shows plenty of bettors are on the same side.
Despite losing Brock Purdy after Week 1, Mac Jones stepped in and looked sharp on Sunday, even if it was against the struggling Saints. An NFL defense is still an NFL defense, and his stat line was impressive: 26 of 39 for 279 yards, three touchdowns, and zero interceptions. With Christian McCaffrey leading the way and an underrated receiving duo in Jauan Jennings and Ricky Pearsall, this offense ranks eighth in the NFL at 364 yards per game. That production has fueled their 2-0 start. Defensively, they’ve faced the Saints and Seahawks, neither an elite offense, but the Niners still sit top six in the league allowing just 268 yards per game.
Arizona is also 2-0 with wins over the winless Saints and Panthers, which makes their record look better than it probably is. Even in those games, their defense ranks in the bottom half of the league in yardage allowed, and that is not encouraging now that they head to San Francisco. Offensively, the Cardinals are in the bottom 10 overall. They do have some talent with James Conner, Marvin Harrison Jr., and Trey McBride, but Kyler Murray remains too inconsistent to inspire much confidence.
The 49ers are simply the stronger team on both sides of the ball, and with the spread still under a field goal, I am more than comfortable laying the points.
The Pick: 49ers -2.5
Cowboys (-1.5) at Bears
This is another line that has shifted since opening. The Bears were originally favored by 1.5 at home, but it has now flipped with the Cowboys as the favorite.
Like with the 49ers game, I am fine with the adjustment. The Cowboys are far from flawless and I am not yet convinced they are playoff-caliber, but one thing is clear: this offense is explosive and will score points. Through two weeks they rank third in the league, averaging 393 yards and 30 points per game. Dak Prescott looks like he is back in top form, CeeDee Lamb is off to another stellar receiving campaign, and Javonte Williams has emerged as a true lead back. The offensive side is not the concern.
Defensively, though, there are issues. The Cowboys are near the bottom in most categories and seem to struggle to stop anyone for long stretches. That was acceptable in Week 1 against Philadelphia, but it was concerning to see the Giants move the ball so easily in Week 2.
Fortunately for Dallas, they face the uninspiring Bears. Chicago’s defense ranks in the bottom five and the Cowboys should have no trouble lighting up the scoreboard. The bigger question is whether the Bears can keep pace. Caleb Williams has shown flashes and his mobility can open up opportunities downfield for Rome Odunze, who could find success against a shaky Cowboys secondary the same way Malik Nabers did. But Williams has already been sacked six times, and protection remains a real concern.
The Cowboys are the more complete team here. I do think Ben Johnson will eventually get Chicago trending in the right direction, but not this week. Even as road favorites, Dallas is the pick, and I am comfortable laying the small spread.
The Pick: Cowboys -1.5
Lions (+4.5) at Ravens
Everyone seemed ready to bury the Lions after their Week 1 dud against the Packers. But as it turns out, Green Bay may actually be the best team in the NFC. In Week 2 the Lions bounced back in emphatic fashion, dismantling the Bears 52-21. They currently rank in the top five in offensive production and have been above average defensively, even with the small sample size. This offense is one of the most explosive in the league, with Jahmyr Gibbs and Amon-Ra St. Brown playing at elite levels. Add in Jared Goff, the underrated but perfect leader for this offense, who just threw for 334 yards and five touchdowns, and I have no concerns about their ability to move the ball in Baltimore.
That is because this is not the Ravens defense of old. They rank second-to-last in the NFL in yards allowed at 409 per game. A lot of that came against high-powered Buffalo, but Detroit is in the same conversation as the Bills when it comes to offensive firepower. Even Cleveland, despite being blown out, still found ways to move the ball on both the ground and through the air. I have not been impressed by what I’ve seen from Baltimore’s defense so far.
Of course, the Ravens still have Lamar Jackson, one of the best quarterbacks in football, and he tossed four touchdowns last week. But it is worth noting that the offense as a whole produced just 242 total yards against the Browns.
Both teams are very good and this could even be a Super Bowl preview down the road. But with Detroit catching this many points on the road, it feels like a gift, and I am more than happy to take it.
The Pick: Lions +4.5
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