After three straight weeks stuck at 1-2, it felt good to finally turn things around with a 2-1 record. We’re obviously not where we want to be just yet, but every winning streak has to start somewhere, and we’ll take it. The Saints and Lions both came through exactly as expected and made us look sharp. As for the Chargers… let’s not even go there. How they managed to lose to a depleted Giants team with a rookie quarterback and Malik Nabers sidelined early is beyond me. But enough dwelling on that as it is time to focus on happier thoughts. This week’s slate has 3-0 written all over it, so let’s dive in.
Last Week 2-1
Season YTD: 5-7
Vikings (-3.5) @ Browns (in London)
I still don’t know how the Browns managed to beat the Packers two weeks ago, because this is not a good team. Yes, their defense looks solid on paper and ranks first in the league in yardage allowed, but they are actually 24th in points allowed at 25.5 per game. And last I checked, it is points that decide games, not yards.
Cleveland just announced they are moving on from 40-year-old Joe Flacco and handing the reins to rookie Dillon Gabriel. You heard me last week when I cautioned against backing rookie quarterbacks making their first start. Betting against Jaxson Dart didn’t work out, but I have a feeling this one will.
The Browns have no offensive weapons to speak of, and the Vikings’ defense is quietly putting together a strong year, ranking seventh in yards allowed and ninth in points allowed at 20 per game. Cleveland has scored only 53 points in four games, and now they are asking a rookie to make his first start in London?
Give me Carson Wentz, Justin Jefferson, Jordan Mason, and a far superior roster from top to bottom. We will gladly take Minnesota and lay the 3.5.
The Pick: Vikings -3.5
Commanders at Chargers (-2.5)
Call me stubborn, but I am going back to the well with the Chargers this week. One game after they completely let me down, they return home to the comfort of SoFi Stadium, where they usually take care of business. Last week’s loss in New York was baffling, but I remain high on Jim Harbaugh and this roster. The Chargers rank eighth in total offense and an impressive third in defense, showing balance across the board. Justin Herbert is due for a bounce-back performance, rookie running back Omarion Hampton just erupted for 128 yards on 12 carries, and the receiving duo of Ladd McConkey and Quentin Johnston gives Herbert reliable options.
The Commanders are not a bad team, but there are plenty of question marks. Quarterback Jayden Daniels is coming off an injury that forced him to miss the last two games, and it is unclear how much it will limit his mobility, which is normally one of his most dangerous weapons. Their defense has also been shaky, ranking in the bottom eight of the league. Long term, Washington should remain in the playoff hunt, but this week sets up poorly. A cross-country trip, a date with a 3-1 Chargers squad stinging from a loss they never should have taken, and a quarterback still working back from injury makes for a difficult combination. I really like the Chargers giving less than a field goal in this spot.
The Pick: Chargers -2.5
Chiefs at Jaguars (+3.5)
It has been a Jekyll and Hyde season for the Chiefs. They opened 0–2, everyone buried them, and the dynasty was pronounced dead. Then they beat the Giants and Ravens, and suddenly people are calling them dangerous again. Getting Xavier Worthy back has helped, but I am still not buying the hype. Those two wins came against the 1–3 Giants and a 1–3 Ravens team in shambles that also lost Lamar Jackson for the fourth quarter.
Now Kansas City heads to Jacksonville to face one of the NFL’s biggest surprises. The Jaguars have been revitalized under new head coach Liam Coen, who brought the same rushing magic he showed at Tampa Bay. Jacksonville ranks fourth in the league in rushing at 144 yards per game, and now they get to attack a Chiefs defense that sits in the bottom 10 against the run.
I am not fully sold on Trevor Lawrence as an elite quarterback, and I would like to see Brian Thomas Jr. rediscover some of his rookie spark. But with a top-tier running game, a solid defense, and the benefit of playing at home, this is a great spot. Add in the 3.5 points, and I will happily take the Jaguars with confidence.
The Pick: Jaguars +3.5
Want more Sandman? Come connect with us here at sandmansports.com/onestopshop
