Our winning streak has started and it is time to keep it rolling. We opened the season with some heartbreaking losses that led to three straight 1 and 2 weeks. But now we have stacked back to back winning weeks at 2 and 1, and this is about the time last year when we really caught fire and fueled our 64 percent hit rate for the season.
At this point we have a strong sample size and three more games on the slate this week that we really like. The Chargers were our lone miss last week, but sometimes I am a glutton for punishment so read below to see if we are going back to the well with Harbaugh’s crew.
Either way it should be another fun week on the gridiron, so let’s dive in.
Last Week 2-1
Season YTD: 7-8
Chargers (-3.5) @ Dolphins
I will not hold you in suspense. The answer is yes, we are backing the Lightning Bolts once again this week. The Chargers have had two very frustrating losses in a row, first to the winless Giants with a rookie making his first NFL start, and then last week blowing a 10-0 lead before surrendering 27 unanswered points to a Commanders team with a quarterback returning from injury.
I do not love that rookie running back sensation Omarion Hampton is out, but whether it is Kimani Vidal or Hassan Haskins carrying the load, they should be able to run just fine against the 32nd ranked defense in the league. Justin Herbert looked uncomfortable for much of Sunday, but he is still the eighth best passer in the NFL so far, and with weapons like Ladd McConkey and Quentin Johnston, he will have opportunities against a Miami pass defense that is only middle of the pack.
The Dolphins are bad on both sides of the ball, ranking bottom four in both total offense and total defense. They blew a 17 point lead to Carolina last week, and the Chargers are a more complete team than the Panthers. The Los Angeles offense will get back on track and their above average defense will contain Tua and this stagnant Miami attack. Even at home, the Dolphins will struggle to keep it close. Give me the Chargers laying the points.
The Pick: Chargers -3.5
Titans @ Raiders (-4.5)
Tennessee notched their first win of the season on Sunday in highly unusual fashion. A touchdown was nullified because of a dropped football right before the goal line, and then came the weirdest interception turned fumble turned opponent touchdown you will ever see. All of that is to say this team should have lost 28-13, yet somehow escaped with a miraculous 22-21 win.
QB Cam Ward is still struggling to find his footing. He currently ranks 24th among passers in the league and owns the second worst QB rating, sitting just above Joe Flacco. The Titans’ offense is second to last in overall productivity, and their defense is only marginally better.
That said, the Raiders have their own problems and are far from a good team. But there are some positive signs on the ground with rookie Ashton Jeanty. He was limited to just 67 yards last week due to low usage after the Raiders fell behind early, but the flashes are clear, especially considering his 138-yard game the week before against the Bears.
Another reason for the Raiders’ struggles has been QB Geno Smith, who leads the league with nine interceptions. Call me contrarian, but I have to believe that trend is not sustainable. He knows he has to protect the ball better or risk Pete Carroll giving him the hook. I actually expect a sharper and more disciplined performance from him this week. Combine that with a heavy workload for Jeanty and short, safe throws to TE Brock Bowers, who should be back after missing the Colts game with an injury, and the Raiders have a formula for success.
This game is in Las Vegas, and even with two struggling teams, the Raiders are better. Tennessee’s four losses have all been by at least eight points, with an average margin of defeat of 17. The Raiders may not be great, but at home they will control this one and win comfortably.
The Pick: Raiders -4.5
Bills @ Falcons (+4.5)
The Bills are the best team in the AFC and remain the favorites to reach the Super Bowl. They boast the reigning MVP under center and were undefeated less than a week ago. Their offense ranks third and their defense ninth, showing strong balance on both sides of the ball. Still, they looked mortal on Sunday, losing at home to Drake Maye and the Patriots while James Cook was bottled up. I don’t expect that to happen again on Monday night, as Buffalo will likely feed him the ball early and often. The Bills currently rank second in the NFL in rushing offense, so expect a heavy workload for Cook.
The Falcons, meanwhile, are at home getting 4 1/2 points, and that’s a lot for any NFL team playing on its own field, especially one as solid as Atlanta. Yes, they have been inconsistent and their loss to Carolina a few weeks ago remains puzzling, but they bounced back nicely with a 27-20 win over the Commanders last week.
Believe it or not, the Falcons have the top-ranked defense in total yards allowed and a top-ten offense at seventh overall. They are also coming off a bye, which means they should be rested and healthy. Atlanta has won 3 of 4 and 5 of 7 coming off their bye week in recent years, so this is a spot where they tend to play well.
Yes, the Dirty Birds can be maddening because of their inconsistency, yet on primetime, at home, and against an elite opponent, I expect them to be focused and ready. I love getting the points here and wouldn’t be shocked if they pull off the mild upset outright.
The Pick: Falcons +4.5
Want more Sandman? Come connect with us here at sandmansports.com/onestopshop
