Last Week: 2-2-1
Season Record: 5-4-1
We went 2-2-1 in Week 2, and I’m a little salty about it. Liberty was a disaster and completely on me, but the Ole Miss loss and UConn tie sting the most. Ole Miss was up 10, and Kentucky kicked a meaningless field goal with six seconds left to make the final margin seven. UConn was up double digits on Syracuse in the fourth quarter, only to let the Orange tie it late and win by seven in OT, turning a win into a push. These things happen over the course of a season, and we’ll get some backdoor wins our way too, but it doesn’t mean I have to like it. Time to move on and kick it into gear for Week 3.
Oklahoma at Temple (+24.5)
Oklahoma is coming off an impressive win over Michigan on Saturday night, with quarterback John Mateer leading the Sooners to a 24–13 victory. Mateer, a dark horse Heisman candidate, went 21-for-34 for 270 yards and a touchdown through the air while adding 74 yards and two more scores on the ground. Michigan’s defense is not what it used to be, but it is still a tough unit, and the Sooners looked the part of an SEC contender.
This, though, is the perfect spot for a hangover game. Oklahoma is traveling to the East Coast after a top-15 primetime win, and Temple is much better than people realize. Yes, their first two games came against UMass and Howard, but they won those by a combined 77–17 and are currently ranked 21st in total offense. The Owls are averaging nearly 200 rushing yards per game, and Michigan showed that Oklahoma can be run on. That matters when we are grabbing a big underdog like Temple, since a strong ground game helps shorten the contest.
Oklahoma wins, but coming off the emotional high of last week, traveling across the country, and running into a solid Temple squad, 24.5 points is just too many. We will take the Owls to cover.
The Pick: Temple +24.5
Oregon (-27.5) at Northwesten
Oregon looks every bit like a top-five team. The Ducks rank second in the nation in total offense and seventh in total defense, outscoring their first two opponents 128–16. Quarterback Dante Moore has quickly made Ducks fans forget about Bo Nix and Dillon Gabriel. He is the real deal, and this offense is downright scary.
Northwestern, meanwhile, is not good. The Wildcats sit near the bottom nationally in offensive production and are giving up more than 420 yards per game on defense. They did notch their first win last week, a 42–7 blowout over Western Illinois, but in Week 1 they lost 23–3 at Tulane. Oregon will have no trouble surpassing that margin.
This is a simple mismatch. Oregon is a national title contender, Northwestern is a bottom-three Big Ten team, and the Ducks should roll into Evanston and cover this number without breaking a sweat.
The Pick: Oregon -27.5
Western Michigan at Illinois (-27.5)
If you followed me in the preseason, you know I am very high on Illinois this year. I love what Bret Bielema has built in Champaign. I am all over their season win total of 7.5, and I actually think they have a legitimate shot at the College Football Playoff. The Illini went 10–3 last season, return 19 starters, and have one of the better quarterbacks in the Big Ten in Luke Altmeyer.
Last week they went to Durham and crushed a solid Duke team 45–19, showing exactly why I am so bullish on them. Now they come home to face a Western Michigan team that is 0–2 and looks completely overmatche. The Broncos rank 114th in total offense, and while Illinois has allowed more yardage than I would like so far, Western Michigan does not have the firepower to keep up.
Illinois is a big-time program this season, and this is the type of game where they flex that muscle. The Illini should roll at home and cover with ease.
The Pick: Illinois -27.5
Arkansas (+9.5) at Ole Miss
In full disclosure, I picked Arkansas several times last season and they burned me almost every time. The Razorbacks finished 7–6, and Sam Pittman, now in his sixth year in Fayetteville, is still trying to bring the program back to its proud past. This year’s group returns 13 starters, and one of them — quarterback Taylen Green — looks special. He has already thrown for 10 touchdowns in two games and just ran for 149 yards on nine carries against Arkansas State. He can hurt defenses with both his arm and his legs.
I complained in the opening about Ole Miss blowing our cover last week against Kentucky, but the truth is they did not really deserve to cover. Kentucky quarterback Zach Calzada might be the worst starter in the SEC, yet he still hit enough throws to keep his team alive until the very end. On the other side, Ole Miss quarterback Austin Simmons has plenty of promise but struggled with two interceptions and no touchdowns while looking confused at times. He also left the game late with a neck injury. Lane Kiffin implied he should be okay, but there is always a risk something like that could flare up again.
Getting nearly double digits in a conference game with a Razorbacks team I believe could win eight or nine games this season feels like too many. I would not be shocked if Arkansas went into Oxford and pulled the outright upset, so we will happily take the points.
The Pick: Arkansas +9.5
Akron at UAB (-11.5)
We will keep this one simple. Akron has yet to score a single point in two games this season. They have been outscored 78–0 by Wyoming and Nebraska. They are horrendous. We cashed last week by taking Nebraska -34.5, and I even said you could add 20 more to that line and I would not worry. Nebraska won 68–0.
I am not sold on Trent Dilfer’s UAB squad, but they are much better than Akron. The Blazers lost 34–24 to a good Navy team last week, and they were in that game until the end. Quarterback Jalen Kitna, Jon’s son, is a senior who looks ready for a strong season. Against Navy, he went 22-for-32 for 304 yards and two touchdowns.
Akron may finally scratch out a few points, but they have totaled only 406 yards of offense all season. UAB is not a great team, but they are better in every facet and should handle the Zips with ease. Expect the Blazers to win this one by two touchdowns or more at home.
The Pick: UAB -11.5
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