Last Week: 1-4
Season Record: 8-11-1
Ugly. Just flat-out ugly. TCU’s late score against SMU cost us, but honestly, I can’t complain. My picks were awful last week, and we were fortunate that Boise State barely held on to cover. You’re always going to have a clunker or two during the season, and they usually come early. Hopefully that one is behind us, and we can build some momentum heading into Week 5.
This week brings our annual look at the “Spread-o-meter,” now that most teams have at least four games under their belts. Here we highlight who has been perfect against the spread and who hasn’t cashed a ticket yet.
The undefeated ATS teams with four or more games are Memphis, Louisiana Tech, Utah State, Mississippi State, and Vanderbilt.
On the flip side, the list of 0-4 ATS squads is much longer: Kansas State, Sam Houston State, Clemson, Oregon State, Georgia State, Virginia Tech, Liberty, and SMU.
And yes, one of these teams will be getting a play against them on my card so let’s get into it and find out which one.
Duke (-4.5) at Syracuse
This was shaping up to be a showcase for two of the biggest passing quarterbacks in the country: Syracuse’s Steve Angeli, who ranks second nationally with 1,316 yards, and Duke’s Darian Mensah, who is third with 1,304. Unfortunately, Angeli went down with an injury in the third quarter of Syracuse’s win over Clemson and is now out for the season. That leaves sophomore Rickie Collins to take over, and I do not have much confidence that he can keep the momentum going. He did throw for a touchdown on Sunday, but the Orange went scoreless in the fourth quarter and his overall numbers were underwhelming. Some nerves and growing pains feel inevitable, and Duke is poised to take advantage.
Mensah, meanwhile, is one of the most dynamic quarterbacks in the ACC. He just guided Duke to a 45–33 victory over a solid NC State team. Neither defense is particularly strong, so points should come in bunches. But without Angeli, I expect Syracuse to struggle to keep pace. Duke’s two losses were respectable ones against quality opponents in Illinois and Tulane, and they look like the steadier side here. With Angeli, this game would be close. Without him, I like Duke to cover the small spread and win by at least a touchdown in a high-scoring contest.
The Pick: Duke -4.5
Akron at Toledo (-20.5)
I got burned by Toledo last week. Not only did the Rockets fail to cover as 13.5-point favorites against Central Michigan, they lost outright. Still, I am going back to the well. That loss may actually work in our favor because I think Toledo will come out angry and motivated. They cannot afford to drop a second MAC game this early in the season, and the sting from that defeat should light a fire.
All the things I wrote last week still hold true. Toledo has a top-30 defense, and while their offensive numbers took a hit thanks to that mystifying performance against Central Michigan, I see it as an anomaly. Back at home, I expect them to respond in a big way against Akron.
Akron may be coming off a 51–7 win over FCS Duquesne, but this is still one of the worst teams in the MAC. They opened the season with back-to-back losses by a combined 78–0, and quarterback Ben Finley produced only modest stats even in the Duquesne win.
Jason Candle remains one of the best coaches in the conference, and I expect him to get this team back on track. Look for Toledo to feed Chip Trayanum, the nation’s 10th-leading rusher, against Akron’s 80th-ranked run defense. If the Rockets avoid turnovers and cut down on penalties, they are the much better team. With a chip on their shoulder, they should punish the Zips and erase last week’s debacle.
The Pick: Toledo -20.5
Indiana at Iowa (+7.5)
Indiana continues to emerge as the “new kid on the block” in the Big Ten that everyone should worry about. Curt Cignetti has done incredible things in his year and a half in Bloomington, and in my Bierman’s Six Pack earlier this week I noted how he shares a lot of similarities with Nick Saban and may already be one of the five best coaches in the country. The way the Hoosiers dismantled Illinois, flat-out embarrassing them, shows this team is well-prepared, balanced, and worthy of real respect.
That said, this is a classic letdown spot. Indiana is coming off a huge home win, the players are reading their press clippings, and now they have to travel to Iowa City, one of the toughest environments in the Big Ten. The Hawkeyes boast a top-10 defense, and while their offense has not matched Indiana’s video game numbers as the nation’s No. 3 unit, it is still much more competent than the groups that made them a punchline a few years ago. Their only loss this season was a narrow three-point road defeat at undefeated Iowa State.
Kirk Ferentz is the longest-tenured coach in the country and knows how to manage these kinds of games. At home, with a strong defense and an improved offense, I love getting more than a touchdown. Give me the Hawkeyes plus 7.5.
The Pick: Iowa +7.5
Virginia Tech at North Carolina State (-10.5)
We hit our first “Spread-o-meter” game of the slate, and Virginia Tech is the target. The Hokies are 0-4 ATS this season, and we are betting that trend continues. NC State features the nation’s fifth-ranked rusher, Hollywood Smothers, as part of a top-25 offense. They now face the 115th-ranked defense in the country, which should spell trouble for the Hokies.
Virginia Tech is in shambles. They just fired head coach Brent Pry, and while they finally picked up their first win of the season with a 38-6 rout, that came against 0-4 FCS Wofford. Meanwhile, NC State is coming off a tough loss to Duke, their only setback so far this year.
The Hokies average two giveaways per game, and that lack of ball security is likely to be a major issue in Raleigh. And while Smothers rightfully draws headlines, do not overlook quarterback CJ Bailey, who currently ranks 15th nationally in passing yards. This Wolfpack team is balanced, motivated, and at home, and I expect them to steamroll an overmatched Virginia Tech squad.
The Pick: NC State -10.5
Kentucky at South Carolina (-6.5)
If you’ve been following this season, you know how little faith I have in Kentucky quarterback Zach Calzada. He was a disaster, and head coach Mark Stoops made the right call by turning to Cutter Boley in their win over Eastern Michigan two weeks ago. With a bye week since then, Boley should be more comfortable, but he is still a redshirt freshman, and this will be the Wildcats’ first game outside Lexington this season.
That’s a tough spot against South Carolina, a team far more talented than its 2-2 record suggests. Quarterback LaNorris Sellers returned from injury last week and looked sharp in the loss to Missouri, throwing for 302 yards and two touchdowns. Both of South Carolina’s defeats have come against unbeaten teams: 4-0 Vanderbilt and 4-0 Missouri.
At home, with Sellers back in form and Kentucky still breaking in a freshman quarterback surrounded by limited offensive weapons, I like the Gamecocks to win by at least a touchdown.
The Pick: South Carolina -6.5
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