Last Week: 3-1-1
Season Record: 17-16-2
We got back on track with a solid winning week, although I still feel like Missouri should have pulled off the win and the cover for us instead of forcing a push. We were also right there with NC State +22.5 late until the Wolfpack surrendered a touchdown in the final minutes. But that is the nature of the game.
We did well with our Indiana, UCLA, and Kansas State picks. And have I mentioned how much I love Curt Cignetti? Hopefully Indiana can keep Penn State from luring him to Happy Valley.
Looking at this week’s “Spread-o-meter,” we are down to only two teams with perfect records against the spread, Memphis and Texas Tech. On the other end, the only team yet to cover a spread is the aforementioned Nittany Lions. None of those three are on our card this week, but there are plenty of good bets to like. Let’s get into it.
Louisville +13.5 @ Miami (FL)
I mentioned on our podcast last week that I think Mario Cristobal is the best coach in the ACC and honestly one of the best in the nation. What he has done with Miami in just a couple of years has been very impressive. This team is loaded with talent on both sides of the ball, and Carson Beck should be in New York for the Heisman ceremony when December rolls around. They have several signature wins and rank in the top 20 in total defense. Miami will almost certainly be in the CFP and has a legitimate chance to win the national championship.
All that said, giving 13.5 points to Louisville is just too much. Jeff Brohm is another outstanding coach who has built a solid program, and the Cardinals are having a very understated season. Their only loss came in overtime against a ranked 5–1 Virginia team two weeks ago. They have had a bye week to recover and will be ready to compete in the Orange Bowl.
Quarterback Miller Moss leads a steady offensive attack that has struggled on the ground but ranks in the top 20 through the air. Miami’s defense has been strong overall but is more vulnerable against the pass, and I expect Moss and wide receiver Chris Bell to have a big day. Bell has totaled 305 yards and three touchdowns in his last two games. Defensively, the Cardinals rank 12th nationally in yards allowed, and despite what many assume, this Miami offense is not as explosive as last year, ranking only 54th in total offense and averaging under 400 yards per game.
Miami will win the game, but getting almost two touchdowns is too many. We’ll take Louisville and the points.
The Pick: Louisville +13.5
Northern Illinois @ Ohio (-10.5)
Several weeks ago we backed Toledo as double-digit favorites at Western Michigan. We lost that one but got back on the horse the following week when the Rockets returned home, crushed Akron, and delivered us the win. Two weeks ago I confidently predicted that Ohio would roll over Ball State in Muncie, but the Cardinals pulled the upset outright.
Ohio has had a bye week to regroup and now returns home to face a struggling Northern Illinois team. The situation feels eerily similar to that Toledo setup, so yes, we are backing the Bobcats again and laying the points in Athens.
Quarterback Parker Navarro is the best in the MAC and rightfully gets most of the attention, but the passing game has been inconsistent and could continue to struggle against Northern Illinois, whose one strength is defending the pass. Fortunately for Ohio, they have leaned on the ground game this season, ranking 40th nationally with more than 170 rushing yards per game. That plays directly into the Huskies’ weakness, as they rank 97th in the nation against the run.
On the other side, Northern Illinois has the third-worst offense in the country, averaging fewer than 250 total yards per game. They will have trouble moving the ball even against a fairly average Bobcats defense.
Ohio sits at 3–3, and while the Ball State loss was baffling, their other two defeats came against Big Ten opponents: Rutgers by three in Piscataway and Ohio State in Columbus. Northern Illinois, meanwhile, is 1–5, and its only win came in Week 1 against 0–6 FCS opponent Holy Cross.
I love the Bobcats to bounce back in a convincing home win and will gladly lay the points in this spot.
The Pick: Ohio -10.5
Florida Atlantic (+21.5) at South Florida
South Florida has been one of the surprise stories of the season, sitting at 5–1 with solid wins over Boise State, Florida, and last week’s victory at 5–1 North Texas. Their only loss came against No. 2 Miami back in Week 3.
Quarterback Byrum Brown has been outstanding, though he is still prone to the occasional mistake. The Bulls’ strength has been their run game, and they should find success on the ground against a porous Florida Atlantic run defense.
However, I really like the Owls in this matchup getting this many points. Quarterback Caden Veltkamp has been fantastic this season, ranking eighth in the nation in passing yards, while Florida Atlantic sits fifth nationally in passing offense. That is where they can exploit South Florida’s defense, which ranks 109th against the pass. Even if the Owls fall behind early, I am confident they can throw their way back into covering this large spread.
South Florida will win the game, but Florida Atlantic is not a bad team, and getting more than three touchdowns is simply too many. USF is coming off an emotional road win and has a massive showdown with undefeated Memphis on deck, which could make this a classic look-ahead spot. This is the perfect setup for the Owls catching this many points, and we love FAU here.
The Pick: FAU +21.5
Tennessee (+8.5) @ Alabama
We bet against Alabama last week when they went to Columbia to face Missouri and came away with a push. I am not anti-Alabama this year; in fact, I think they are very good, and Kalen DeBoer should have the Crimson Tide primed for the CFP this postseason.
Tennessee, meanwhile, sits at 5–1, with its only loss coming in a heartbreaker against Georgia by three points a few weeks ago. The Volunteers have a very balanced offense, ranking in the top 25 in both passing and rushing, but it is their ground game that can exploit Alabama’s defense, which ranks 75th nationally against the run. Tennessee will be more vulnerable through the air, as its secondary has been a weak spot, and I do expect Ty Williams and company to score points. In fact, I almost picked the Over 59.5 in this matchup because it has all the makings of a track meet.
Still, getting almost double digits in an SEC rivalry game between two top-15 teams is just too many points. Alabama is coming off an emotional road win at Missouri, a game they won but certainly took some hits, and this is a tough spot to win by 10 or more.
Josh Heupel has built a strong program in Knoxville, and as long as quarterback Joey Aguilar limits his mistakes and makes smart decisions, I like running back Desean Bishop to have a big day and keep the Vols within striking distance throughout.
The Pick: Tennessee +8.5
Utah (-3.5) @ BYU
The Holy War is here, and it is going to be a good one. Utah comes in at 5–1, BYU at 6–0, and both teams feature top-20 defenses. Each side leans more on the run than the pass, but Utah does it slightly better, ranking eighth in the nation in rushing offense.
BYU has stacked up wins, but it has been in unspectacular fashion. Quarterback Bear Bachmeier has been steady as their field general, though he has played more like a game manager. While he did throw three touchdowns against Arizona, he now faces the fifth-ranked passing defense in the country in Utah.
The Utes are coming off a dominant 42–10 rout of Arizona State and will be fully locked in for this rivalry showdown with both Big 12 and CFP implications. Quarterback Devon Dampier is special with both his arm and legs, and he should control this game from start to finish. I like Utah to win this one comfortably, likely by double digits, so laying only 3.5 points feels like an easy call.
The Pick: Utah -3.5
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