Week 6 lived up to its billing as “upset week,” leaving chaos across the Top 25. Several ranked teams fell to unranked opponents, playoff hopes took a beating, and the AP Poll saw its biggest shakeup of the season. For some coaches this week secured their jobs. For others the hot seat is officially scorching.
Biggest Games and Upsets of the Week
Penn State at UCLA (37–42)
Losing to Oregon was one thing. Dropping a road game to a leaderless UCLA team is another. James Franklin’s squad came out flat, trailing 27–7 at halftime, and never fully recovered. Drew Allar’s draft stock is in freefall and Franklin’s seat is heating up quickly. On the flip side Nico Iamaleava had the game of his life, carrying the Bruins to an upset that shifts the Big Ten narrative.
Texas at Florida (21–29)
Arch Manning continues to disappoint and questions are swirling about his ability to be the guy. The Longhorns looked flat and uninspired and this one says more about Texas’ collapse than Florida’s bounce-back. Steve Sarkisian is running out of answers and Texas’ preseason playoff dreams are officially done.
Iowa State at Cincinnati (30–38)
The Cyclones had been riding high but a disastrous first quarter with 17 unanswered points allowed doomed them. Rocco Becht and company outplayed Cincy late but the hole was too deep. Tre Gola-Callard starred for the Bearcats with 111 rushing yards on just 10 carries, scoring twice in the upset. This felt like a trap game but it derails Iowa State’s momentum.
AP Top 25 Risers and Fallers
Risers
- Six teams jumped at least five spots between No. 19 and No. 14. Most were simply beneficiaries of chaos above them.
Fallers
- #22 Iowa State (down 8): A bad loss to unranked Cincinnati drops them from the unbeaten ranks.
- #25 Florida State (down 7): Two straight ACC losses sink the Seminoles.
- Penn State (unranked): From No. 7 to out of the poll after falling to UCLA. Their playoff hopes are almost gone.
- Texas (unranked): The Longhorns tumble from No. 9 after another misfire with Arch Manning.
Betting Strategy: Adjusting After Week 6
Fade Oklahoma Overs
Believe it or not, Oklahoma is the only Power 4 team in the country to hit the under in all five of its games. That might seem surprising given their top 30 offense, which is averaging more than 33 points per game. The difference is their defense, ranked number two nationally, which has been suffocating and has allowed just 36 points all season. It is something to watch as they head into a seven game gauntlet against Texas, South Carolina, Ole Miss, Tennessee, Alabama, Missouri, and LSU. Every one of those teams except Tennessee ranks in the top 36 defensively, with Missouri sitting at number one.
Do Not Trust the Pretenders
Teams like Texas, Penn State, and Clemson are no longer safe bets against competent FBS opponents. The odds rarely reflect the actual risk, and their week-to-week inconsistency makes them some of the toughest teams to trust. Betting on them right now feels like asking for trouble.
Go Big In Service Academy Games
Navy and Air Force once again showed they cannot stop anyone, not even each other. Both defenses are struggling, and against option-style looks the over has been the smart play. Army has not been much better, giving up points in bunches despite trying to control tempo with its ground game. The service academies are still tough and disciplined, but their defenses have been consistently overmatched this year. Until one of them proves otherwise, overs in Academy games should remain a betting staple. For reference, Air Force is currently 5-0 to the over, Navy is 4-1, and Army is 2-3.
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