Welcome to Crush & Fade, your weekly look at the current PGA Tour event along with a quick recap of last week’s tournament.
Happy Fourth of July to everyone!
Rocket Mortgage Classic Recap
Detroit Golf Club delivered an entertaining tournament that ended in a three way playoff between eventual winner Aldrich Potgieter, Max Greyserman, and Chris Kirk.
The 20-year-old South African bomber Potgieter looks like a very entertaining and talented player. He has been in the mix throughout the year, and this marks his first PGA Tour victory. Kudos and congrats, Aldrich.
John Deere Classic Preview
TPC Deere Run in Silvis, Illinois hosts one of the weaker fields in recent memory. While this year’s lineup is slightly improved from previous editions, it remains a tournament that struggles to attract the sport’s biggest names.
That said, this feels like another week where just about anyone can win, which makes it fun from a gambling perspective.
It is a Par 71 track playing 7,289 yards, with Davis Thompson as the defending champion after last year’s winning score of 28 under.
Let’s hope we get another tight leaderboard and exciting Sunday finish.
Sandman Top Bets
My consistent play this season has been Mr. Aviators himself, Ben Griffin, and yes, he is the chalk of the chalk this week. I am also leaning on players who performed well at TPC Deere Run in 2024 and are currently in solid form.
- Ben Griffin to win (+1600)
You still get decent value here. His performance this year continues to justify backing him. Word is he is finally taking time off for the Scottish Open to prep for The Open Championship. - Michael Thorbjornsen Top 5 finish (+750)
I absolutely love this play. He finished T2 here in 2024 and has been in great form recently. He has the full game, and it might be his moment. - Luke Clanton Top 10 finish (+500)
Another T2 finisher in 2024, Clanton continues to rise on Tour. It feels like only a matter of time before he breaks through. With this number, you are getting plus value on a smart Top 10 wager. - Jackson Suber Top 20 finish (+550)
Suber finished T6 last week at the Rocket Classic. He is trending in the right direction, and this course fits his eye. This feels like a strong value bet to sneak into that 10 to 20 range.
CRUSH PLAYS
Ben Griffin win +1600
Michael Thorbjornsen Top 5 +750
Luke Clanton Top 10 +500
Jackson Suber Top 20 +550
This Week’s Fade
Picking fades can be a little trickier since you are not playing an actual “against” bet, but rather flagging players who might be overvalued.
This week I am fading Davis Thompson.
He cruised around TPC Deere Run last year with a 28 under total, but his 2025 stats do not point to a repeat. As the defending champ, his value is reduced, and I do not think he is a smart play at these numbers.
FADE PLAYS
Davis Thompson win +3000
Davis Thompson Top 10 +450
Davis Thompson Top 20 +225
Good luck Sandman Nation, and may all your bets land squarely on the green.
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