We already covered MVP and OROTY longshots, where most of the betting attention goes. But let’s not forget about the defenders. Every year, someone on defense comes out of nowhere and blows up. Think 2019 Shaq Barrett. Think 2018 Darius Leonard. Players like that do not just outperform their expectations, they cash futures tickets for anyone smart enough to grab them early.
So who could be this year’s breakout star? Here are some under-the-radar Defensive Player of the Year and Defensive Rookie of the Year candidates who are worth a futures look.
Defensive Player of the Year (DPOY) Longshots
Jalen Carter – DE/DT, Philadelphia Eagles
Odds: +1800 to +2200
Jalen Carter already feels like the future anchor of Philadelphia’s defense. He was disruptive in key spots during their Super Bowl run, and his mix of quickness and power inside draws comparisons to Aaron Donald. He can rush from multiple spots along the line and commands double teams, which frees up the rest of the defense.
The challenge with defensive tackles is always the stat sheet. They do not rack up sacks the way edge rushers do. But Carter has already shown flashes of growth going into Year 3, and if he makes another leap, his tape and team profile will push him into the conversation. If he posts even 8 to 10 sacks and adds impact plays, he will be tough to ignore.
Josh Hines-Allen – EDGE, Jacksonville Jaguars
Odds: +6000 to +7500
If Josh Hines-Allen played on a more consistent team, he would already be a household name. He had a solid 2024 season with 8 sacks, but it was his 2023 campaign that really opened eyes: 17.5 sacks, 17 tackles for loss, 66 total tackles, 2 forced fumbles, and a pick.
The key difference was how he was used. In 2023, he moved between outside linebacker and defensive end, giving him different looks and mismatches. In 2024, he was used more traditionally off the edge, and the numbers dipped. But Jacksonville brought in new defensive coordinator Anthony Campanile, who has already signaled a more versatile scheme. If JHA is moved around and unleashed the way he was in 2023, his upside is massive at these odds.
Kyle Hamilton – S, Baltimore Ravens
Odds: +5000
Safeties rarely win DPOY, but Kyle Hamilton is not your typical safety. He is 6 foot 4, 220 pounds, and plays all over the field for Baltimore. He blitzes off the edge, lines up in the box, and even covers tight ends in man. He is a true hybrid who can disrupt plays at every level of the field.
Hamilton has 5 interceptions, 7 sacks, and 250 tackles through three seasons. If he puts together a season with splash plays in multiple categories, and Baltimore has another big year, he has a path to the award. It is rare for any defensive back to win, but he fits the mold of a modern defensive weapon who could break through.
Defensive Rookie of the Year (DROTY) Longshots
Jahdae Barron – CB, Denver Broncos
Odds: +2000 to +2500
Rookies are always hard to project because playing time is not guaranteed. But Jahdae Barron was a first round pick for a reason. Denver lacks proven talent at corner outside of Pat Surtain, and Barron is expected to get major snaps from the start.
If Sean Payton’s offense improves and forces opponents to throw more, Barron will get plenty of chances to make plays. Teams will throw away from Surtain, which means Barron will be targeted early and often. If he can turn those chances into takeaways, he has a very real path to this award.
Will Johnson – CB, Arizona Cardinals
Odds: +2650 to +3150
Will Johnson was expected to be a top-five pick before concerns about his knee surfaced late in the process. He ended up sliding to the second round, where Arizona took a swing on his elite upside.
The Cardinals need corner help, and Johnson has the traits to shine right away. He is a press man corner with size and instincts, and his tape from Michigan shows a player who can diagnose routes and close in a flash. If his knee holds up and he sees the field early, he is the type of talent who can rack up picks and pass breakups and make a splash in Year 1.
Mike Green – EDGE, Baltimore Ravens
Odds: +1500 to +2000
Mike Green is one of the more polarizing prospects in this year’s class. Off-field concerns dropped him out of the top 10, but on the field, he is as talented as any pass rusher in the group. He had 17 sacks last season at Marshall, showing explosive burst and refined technique.
The Ravens will not need him to be a full-time starter right away. Instead, he can work as a rotational pass rusher in a system that gives him one-on-one chances. With offenses playing catch-up against Baltimore’s high-powered attack, Green will have opportunities to get home. If he keeps his head on straight, he could be a breakout candidate from Week 1.
Parting Shot
DPOY and DROTY are never easy to predict, but longshots win these awards more often than most think. The key is finding players who have the talent, the opportunity, and a narrative that can carry them. That means defensive rookies who will play early, and veterans ready to break out in the right system.
If you’re looking for long odds with real upside, these are the tickets worth holding.
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