The Premier League season is 25% complete. It’s been a season packed with intrigue thanks to Liverpool’s early struggles, the success of Sunderland, and inconsistent form from most of the Big Six.
Six points separate 17th and 20th. Second-placed Bournemouth are only five points ahead of 11th-placed Brentford. Arsenal’s four-point might look significant, but that can quickly disappear with London derbies against Tottenham and Chelsea to come before the end of November.
Liverpool, despite losing four league matches in a row, are only seven points off the summit.
Let’s take a look at each of FanDuel’s EPL futures markets and identify where the betting value lies at this stage:
Winner
Arsenal are the clear favorites for the title at -290. Manchester City (+450) and Liverpool (+650) are the only realistic challengers, per FanDuel, with no other team shorter than +2500. Chelsea might feel hard done by to be out at +4000.
The underlying numbers tell a clear story. Arsenal’s expected goals metrics are far clear of everyone else. City (+0.74 xGD/90) are in second place ahead of Crystal Palace. Liverpool’s numbers fit with the eye test as they are a middling defense and the attack hasn’t been as potent as it was 12 months ago.
Chelsea and Manchester United have performed like mid-table teams. Some of Chelsea’s return can be attributed to their slew of red cards. United have turned things around of late, but this is clearly a work in progress under Ruben Amorim.
Arsenal are facing two newly promoted sides in their next two matches, which should be favorable. Away days at Burnley and Sunderland aren’t easy by any means, however, particularly with how the Black Cats have started.
City are the value pick in this market as it stands. This is a good time to back them given their loss to Aston Villa at the weekend. Jump now as their odds could shorten significantly in the weeks to come.
Relegation
Two of the bottom three, Nottingham Forest and West Ham, have already changed managers. Nuno Espirito Santo came in for the Hammers, and Sean Dyche was Forest’s emergency hire after Ange Postecoglou’s calamitous tenure.
Wolves are reportedly looking to move on from Vitor Pereira, with Brendan Rodgers mooted as a candidate. While the Midlands club are the only winless team in the league, there are five teams with a worse xGD/90. Burnley, currently 16th, have by far the worst mark in that category.
Fulham host Wolves and West Ham make the trip to Burnley in the next two weeks. Those matches could quickly change the relegation picture.
Led by Nuno, West Ham have the quality to pull away from the bottom three, though it’s crucial they get at least four points from their next three matches before the schedule gets trickier.
As was the case before the season, Burnley look like the best bet to go down at -210. Fulham (+550) are good value considering they have only averaged one expected goal per game.
Golden Boot
Betting on the Golden Boot is a wager on Erling Haaland missing 10+ matches through injury. The Norwegian has five more goals than any other player, averages 4.1 shots per match (one other player is above 2.6), and his 1.03 expected goals per 90 is far clear of everyone other than Jean-Philippe Mateta.
Mo Salah could hit a purple patch and make +2000 look like a phenomenal price. That’s unlikely with Liverpool’s dysfunction.
Scorer of three league goals, Viktor Gyökeres has the same xG/90 as Jacob Murphy. Brentford’s Thiago has six goals already, and strong underlying numbers, but +2700 isn’t a sufficiently long price in a mid-table team.
Newcastle’s Nick Woltemade is an interesting pick if Haaland misses significant time. Woltemade is in the top five in xG/90 and has four goals in six appearances.
It’s Haaland’s award if he plays 30 or more matches. Woltemade, at a price of +5000, is a decent option, and it’s tempting to ride the wave of momentum behind Antoine Semenyo at +2700.
Top Four Finish
Arsenal, City, Liverpool, and Chelsea remain the sportsbook favorites for the top four. Liverpool look the most vulnerable thus far, with Tottenham’s new-found grit making them a decent option at +380 in this market.
Bournemouth (+500) warrant some interest from bettors if they can keep Semenyo healthy for the remainder of the season. Newcastle’s odds are too short at +320 after losing Alexander Isak.
A top-five finish is in play for the Magpies at +175. Third in expected goal difference, and only three points behind sixth, Palace are a worthwhile wager to finish in the top six at +1000. The Eagles have been creating chances at an elite level so far this season.
Top Half Finish
We love what we’ve seen from Sunderland. Their expected metrics suggest this scorching-hot start isn’t sustainable, but there’s top-half upside and the +500 price in this market represents excellent value.
Granit Xhaka brings crucial experience in the middle of the park. The defense has been rock-solid, and they have one of the best goalkeepers in the league.
Palace, too, are worth backing at -170. Those odds are destined to tumble in the coming weeks, so we think it’s a good time to jump on them before the markets catch up with how well Oliver Glasner’s side have been playing.Only six sides have a better xGD/90 than Leeds. Currently 16th, the +700 price is worth consideration, though it might be worth waiting a few weeks to see what their odds look like after facing Liverpool, City, and Chelsea.
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