Welcome to Crush & Fade, our weekly series where we break down the current PGA Tour event and recap the previous tournament.
The FedEx Cup chase is well underway after the St. Jude is in the books. I think I was a little harsh last week when I said, “The playoffs have become a Top 70 three-week race for a ton of money that nobody watches or cares about.” The closing holes with the Top 50 on the line at the BMW Championship were actually compelling. Every putt led to swings in the standings, and the drama was real.
I loved Rick Gehman’s take from The Second Cut podcast on how to fix the playoffs: No FedEx Cup points once the playoffs start. The St. Jude begins with 70 players; if you are not in the Top 50, you are out. After the BMW Championship, if you are not in the Top 30, you are out. Then the winner at the Tour Championship is crowned. Playoff golf that truly has implications, forces the best players to show up, and rewards strong play when it matters most. Simple, effective, and fair. PGA Tour, make it happen for 2026.
FedEx St. Jude Championship
Tommy Lad. Oh, Tommy Lad. The golf world is rooting for you, mate. Once again, you were in contention, and once again, the lead slipped away as Justin Rose caught fire late and JJ Spaun drained monster putts to force a playoff. I love Tommy Fleetwood, and I will root hard for him to get that elusive first PGA Tour win until it happens. His character was on full display after the round when he faced the cameras, answered every question, and shared how he was feeling after another heartbreaking finish. A lesson in perseverance and drive.
Congrats to 45-year-old Justin Rose, whose process, routine, and determination continue to impress.
BMW Championship
Rory is back, and hopefully we get a clash of titans this week at Caves Valley. Located just northwest of Baltimore in Owings Mills, Maryland, this par 70 track stretches to 7,601 yards. Captain Keegan is the defending champion and will try to strengthen his case for a spot at Bethpage, either as a player or a player-captain. The forecast calls for upper-80s heat, and the pressure will match the temperature as the Top 30 move on to East Lake for the Tour Championship.
Players needing a big week include Matt Fitzpatrick (40th) and Xander Schauffele (43rd).
One more FedEx Cup point system gripe: I like Rickie Fowler. He is great for the game, brings flair with his Sunday orange, and has a unique style. But this year, Rickie snuck into the BMW at 48th thanks in part to multiple sponsor exemptions into Signature Events, which gave him a boost in points. Meanwhile, Chris Kirk finished 51st and got zero sponsor exemptions. That is not equitable, and it contradicts the PGA Tour mantra: “Play better golf and be rewarded.” This loophole should be closed. Signature Events are too important to give out spots based on sponsorship rather than merit.
Sandman Top Bets
Caves Valley has seen some changes in recent years, but it still rewards accuracy off the tee and favors long hitters. Keegan Bradley won in 2024, Viktor Hovland in 2023, and Patrick Cantlay in 2022. Scottie Scheffler finished 2nd in 2023 and 3rd in 2022, and he did not play last year. Expect him to be in the mix again.
- Scottie Scheffler WIN +250 – Best player in the world, 12 straight Top 10s, great track record here. Even without caddie Ted Scott this week, I am sticking with him.
- Justin Rose Top 5 +700 – Playing outstanding golf, confident, and motivated after missing this event last year. Knows the course well.
- Cameron Young Top 10 +225 – Rolling the putter well, long off the tee, great fit for this course.
- Akshay Bhatia Top 20 +125 – Ball-striking is sharp, needs a hot putter. Solid value.
Crush Picks:
- Scheffler WIN +250
- Rose Top 5 +700
- Young Top 10 +225
- Bhatia Top 20 +125
Fade Pick:
Xander Schauffele WIN +1800, Top 10 +150, Top 20 -190 – Inconsistent since early-season injury, despite good past results here (T5 in 2024, T8 in 2023, T3 in 2022).
Good luck this week, Sandman Nation! And may all your bets land squarely on the green.
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