Drama, drama, drama at the FedEx St. Jude Championship opening rounds, and the players are sharing more and more how the game of golf not only plays with their mind and spirit, but also is not the end all of living a fulfilled life. Easy for them to say! Give me a tour card, an L.A.B. putter, and a private jet, and I’ll get back to you. I’d be happy to give this lifestyle a shot!
The leader after Day 1 was Akshay Bhatia, who started the round No. 45 in FedExCup standings, and called this season “demoralizing” and “the toughest year I’ve had.” With every round now a make-or-break for players to continue playing in the 2025 season, the pressure is real. Bhatia finished Round 1 with a low score of 62, and 4-under on the final four holes on Thursday to finish with a solo lead at -8.
He was followed closely by Tommy Fleetwood at -7, and my early bet on Wednesday night, going against my self-imposed golf betting rule: wait until the cut is made (which does not factor in this weekend anyway). Fleetwood is due in my mind and has shown up to play at the St. Jude Championship the last two years, finishing T3 in 2023 and T22 in 2024. In his 7-year PGA career, he has made the cut 85% of the time, and with $31.3M in earnings, he is one of the lucky few who can say they play a game for a very comfortable living. Still, he has zero PGA Tour wins and has finished runner up six times. He has banked eight international wins though, and if he can continue his early round play into the weekend at TPC Southwind in Memphis, TN, I will be one happy Sandman Sports-girl bettor.
Round 2 Before the Storm
Day 2 delivered more of the same drama, with lightning and hail to put an exclamation point on the day. My guy Fleetwood continued his commanding play, rising to the top of the leaderboard early, ending Round 2 at -13 before severe weather moved in, stopping play at 3:31 p.m. CST.
Bhatia is now tied for 2nd place with Collin Morikawa and Justin Rose, all at -9, with Rose having to pick up at #16 after Round 2 play resumes on Saturday morning. Keep an eye on Kurt Kitayama, who has been right there into weekend play after winning the 3M Open a couple weeks ago, and who surged ahead on Friday with an eagle on 16, shooting 63 and moving up the leaderboard into a T5 position.
Moving into a soggy Day 3, all but three of the top 10 players have completed Round 2, with an additional 18 more to go to complete the entire round beginning at 8:30 a.m. EST. While there is no cut this weekend, only the top 50 golfers will advance to play the next FedExCup event.
Projected Winners & Value Plays
Top Bets Right Now
- Tommy Fleetwood (+115): Leading and in form with consistent scoring, prime candidate for first-play winner. I am already in.
- Scottie Scheffler (+450): If Scheffler is entered in the event, he is always a good bet. At -3 on Day 1, he was at the back of the pack, but in typical Scottie style he is now -7 and T7.
- Collin Morikawa (+900): With an eagle on #9 and three birdies, Morikawa continued to pull away from the pack in Round 2, shooting a 65, one better than his Round 1 66. He sits 19th in FedExCup points, and while relatively safe to continue to play through the year, he still has not won a tournament in 2025. He is a competitor. Do not count him out from a Top 5 finish this weekend.
- Akshay Bhatia (+1400): Momentum and confidence from a career-low opening round, sleeper potential for a major surge. But with him being his own worst enemy, I am going to wait. Here is hoping he can battle his inner demons and continue to play strong.
- Justin Rose (+1800): With 11 PGA wins and $69.5M in lifetime tour earnings, Rose is another good bet. He has not won a tournament in 2025 and has finished in the Top 10 four times this year. Maybe the FedExCup will be his win. He will start on 16 when play resumes this morning and is now -9.
- Kurt Kitayama (+2200): Rising on Day 2 to T5 with Andrew Novak, Kitayama is looking to strike gold once again. High odds for a solid player hitting his stride just in time for FedExCup play. Sitting 52nd in FedExCup points, the St. Jude is an important win for him. I like this bet and the odds of a Top 5.
As Round 3 finally gets underway later today, the FedExCup leaderboard is stacked tighter than the crowd around the 18th green. Fleetwood remains in control at -13, but Morikawa is circling like a shark hoping for blood in the water. Given Bhatia’s self-disclosed struggle this season, I cannot help but pull for him a little, if for no other reason than some personal growth and realizing that you can truly create your own reality if you can lock in. I like Kitayama too and the hunger to stay in season with a win. But no one mess with Tommy’s lead or my vicarious victory via BetRivers. My advice: keep your eyes on the skies once again with late summer storms a threat, and because in golf, like in life, both external and internal storms can roll in fast. Be prepared to keep your knees bent, be willing to roll with the thunder, and pivot to drier ground.
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