Who had money on the Broncos making the playoffs last year? No? Yeah, didn’t think so.
Every season brings surprises, especially in those 5 to 7 seed wild card slots. In 2024, we saw Denver and Minnesota crash the party after getting little to no preseason buzz. Now, it’s time to look ahead to 2025 and identify which teams might follow a similar path. A couple of these are borderline playoff squads, while a few are jumping from the cellar to contender.
Here are four teams that could blow up expectations this year.
Dallas Cowboys (O/U 7.5, 7-10 last year)
The Cowboys took a reputation hit after their losing season in 2024, and while that’s understandable, context matters. Dak Prescott missed a big chunk of the year, and the offense never found its footing without him. But now, with a healthy Dak back and new head coach Brian Schottenheimer installing a fresh system, there’s reason to believe this team could bounce back fast.
The addition of George Pickens gives Dallas a legitimate one-two punch at wide receiver alongside Ceedee Lamb. A full season of Dak throwing to that duo could turn this offense into one of the most explosive in the league.
Defensively, they’ve still got the juice. Micah Parsons remains a game-wrecker, and Daron Bland is one of the most underrated corners in the NFL. I’m not betting on them to take the NFC East from Philadelphia, but I do like the Cowboys to comfortably hit the over and land as a strong wild card team.
Chicago Bears (O/U 8.5, 5-12 last year)
Chicago is a wildcard in every sense. No one knows exactly what Caleb Williams will be as a rookie, but most agree that new head coach Ben Johnson is the perfect person to guide him.
The coaching upgrade here is massive. Last year’s Matt Eberflus-led staff was a disaster, with baffling decisions both on the field and behind the scenes. Any team that doesn’t bother going over film with their number one overall rookie quarterback is clearly not setting itself up for success.
Ben Johnson brings structure, creativity, and a modern offensive scheme. The Bears have quietly assembled an intriguing core of weapons. DJ Moore is a legit WR1, Rome Odunze adds a dangerous second option, and Colston Loveland and Luther Burden bring playmaking upside. They also nailed their defensive draft, adding Shemar Turner and Major Burns to a unit that needed depth and punch.
With the Vikings starting rookie JJ McCarthy and the Packers still figuring things out, the Bears could steal a couple extra division wins. If Caleb clicks, this team has the talent and coaching to slide into the NFC wild card race.
New England Patriots (O/U 8.5, 4-13 last year)
This one comes down to two names: Drake Maye and Mike Vrabel.
Maye was a polarizing draft pick out of UNC, with some questioning his polish at the next level. But in his rookie campaign, he showed off the traits that matter, namely a strong arm, playmaking instincts, and a competitive edge. He looked like a guy you can build around.
Now he’s paired with Vrabel, who brings toughness and structure to a team that badly needed leadership. Vrabel’s exit from Tennessee had more to do with a front office clash than performance. He’s a proven winner, and that stability is exactly what this roster needs.
Maye won’t have to do it alone. The Patriots added Stefon Diggs to stretch the field, drafted offensive lineman Will Campbell with the number four overall pick, and grabbed bellcow running back TreVeyon Henderson to bring balance to the offense. The defense also got reinforcements in Robert Spillane and Milton Williams.
This feels like a complete team again. If Maye makes the leap and Vrabel sets the tone early, New England could leapfrog both the Jets and Dolphins and find its way back into the postseason.
Atlanta Falcons (O/U 7.5, 8-9 last year)
No team was more hot and cold in 2024 than the Falcons. They were a boom-or-bust team week to week and a regular heartbreaker in moneyline parlays. But this year, it’s a slightly different version of the same mold, and there’s a lot to like.
Michael Penix Jr. is the presumed starter, and while his sample size last year was small, he showed enough for Atlanta to move on from Kirk Cousins after just one season. That’s not a small endorsement. Penix brings mobility, vision, and the ability to extend plays when things break down.
Pair that with Drake London, a big-bodied wideout in the Mike Evans mold, and this offense starts to make sense. The run game remains a weapon with Bijan Robinson, and there’s potential for this unit to become dynamic and balanced.
Defensively, Atlanta went all in during the draft. Their first three picks were linebacker Jalon Walker, edge rusher James Pearce Jr., and safety Xavier Watts. If even two of them hit, the Falcons could find the consistency they lacked last year and sneak into the playoffs in a wide open NFC South.
Final Word:
There’s always a team (or four) that comes out of nowhere and crashes the postseason party. In 2025, don’t be surprised if Dallas, Chicago, New England, or Atlanta are playing in January while more hyped teams are watching from the couch.
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