Week 3 of college football delivered plenty of drama, including upsets that saw Clemson and South Carolina both take losses. Our card took a hit when LaNorris Sellers left early after a head shot, and Clemson’s offense once again stalled against Georgia Tech. The result was a 1-3 week, with our gut check cashing but the Texas Tech over/under missing by just two points.
You can’t control injuries, but you can bounce back. For Week 4 we are tightening things up with sharper lines on our best bets. And for the gut check pick, I am flipping the script from last week after what we saw play out. I admit I may have been wrong about a certain team and it is time to change that thinking. Let’s get into this week’s plays.
Best Moneyline Bet of the Week: NC State Wolfpack (+125 at Duke Blue Devils)
Taking underdogs in college football is always riskier than in the NFL because the talent gap can swing wildly. Still, this is a spot where the line feels tilted too far toward the favorite.
NC State is 3-0 with a modest +21 point differential, but what matters is that they have closed out close games. Duke, meanwhile, sits at 1-2, including a loss to Tulane. The Blue Devils are being given a bit too much credit here. If you are looking for value, the Wolfpack moneyline is the play.
Best Spread Bet of the Week: James Madison Dukes (-8.5 at Liberty Flames)
Liberty limps into this matchup at 1-2, dropping back-to-back games as the favorite against Jacksonville State and Bowling Green. Quarterback Ethan Vasko has thrown three interceptions during that stretch and has looked anything but confident.
James Madison, meanwhile, has firmly established itself as one of the premier Group of 5 programs. Their 1-1 record is a bit misleading, as the lone loss came at Louisville where the game was tied in the fourth quarter before slipping away by 14. The Dukes feature a top 10 defense and are coming off a bye week.
If you had given me this line three weeks ago, I would have leaned heavily toward Liberty. But with the Flames struggling and JMU looking strong, I like the Dukes to handle business even on the road.
Best Over/Under Bet of the Week: Florida Gators at Miami Hurricanes (Under 55.5)
Florida’s offense has been stuck in neutral. DJ Lagway hasn’t found his rhythm against quality opponents, and the turnovers are piling up. The expectation of a shootout here feels misplaced.
Miami’s defense is disciplined and opportunistic, and Florida doesn’t have the consistency to push them. Expect Miami to get out in front early, lean on the run, and close it down. This number looks inflated, and the under is the side.
Gut Check Bet of the Week: Syracuse Orange (+17.5 at Clemson Tigers)
Last week I trusted Clemson. This week, I am doing a complete reversal.
Right now, Clemson looks broken. Cade Klubnik cannot get comfortable, and Dabo Swinney doesn’t appear to have his team prepared week to week. Georgia Tech exposed that last Saturday, and until proven otherwise, Clemson feels like a fade.
Syracuse is 2-1 with a capable offense that can keep them inside the number, if not challenge outright. At 17.5 points, this line is too generous to a Tigers team that hasn’t shown it deserves that kind of respect.
