The preseason is underway and the opening night of the NFL regular season is quickly approaching. Every year, the league delivers surprises that defy preseason predictions. In 2024, the Rams won the NFC West, the Commanders and Vikings each surpassed 12 wins, and the Cowboys missed the postseason. This season promises more chaos and potentially a Cinderella story or two.
Here are six divisional longshots that could make headlines in 2025:
AFC
Tennessee Titans (+650) – AFC South
The Titans are one of the most unique cases in the conference, debuting the least-hyped No. 1 overall pick in recent memory behind an improved offensive line. The defense and supporting cast, aside from Calvin Ridley, remain questionable. While unlikely, Tennessee can win the AFC South not necessarily because they are a dominant team, but because it could be the weakest division in football. Nine wins might be enough to take the crown. The Titans lost six one-possession games in 2024.
Pittsburgh Steelers (+500) – AFC North
Aaron Rodgers was top 8 in passing yards and touchdowns last season. While it was far from a successful year for Rodgers and the Jets, he is not as far behind as some may think. This is arguably a serious upgrade for Pittsburgh at the quarterback position, and if Mike Tomlin continues to field an elite defense, they could be in the mix come December. The challenge will be chasing the Ravens and potentially Joe Burrow’s Bengals, but the Steelers have a history of exceeding expectations.
Denver Broncos (+275) – AFC West
Admittedly the chalkiest of our “longshot picks”, many are high on the Broncos in 2025, and there is good reason for the optimism. Bo Nix enters his second year under center behind a strong offensive line, supported by one of the best defenses in the NFL. Last year, Denver took the Chiefs to the wire at Arrowhead and then won by 38 points in the rematch. While many Kansas City starters, including Patrick Mahomes, were sidelined in that second contest, the larger point remains: Sean Payton’s Broncos are close to overtaking the division, and this could be the year they do it.
NFC
Chicago Bears (+500) – NFC North
The odds may not appear to be super long at first glance, but the Bears are projected to finish fourth by oddsmakers and by a wide margin. Ben Johnson inherits a team that lost three consecutive divisional games by three points or fewer last season. An improved and settled Caleb Williams, paired with an elite schemer like Johnson, could create fireworks in Chicago. Head coach and quarterback changes in Minnesota and Detroit could also lead to steps back, making the division more open than some might believe.
Dallas Cowboys (+550) – NFC East
The Eagles are deservedly the favorites in the East, but it is easy to forget what the Cowboys are capable of. In 2023, Dallas won the conference before suffering an upset loss in the postseason. The 2024 season was disappointing, marred by injuries and staff turnover. Ahead of this year, Dak Prescott is healthy, and the roster still boasts stars on both sides of the ball. With expectations historically low, Dallas could surprise.
Carolina Panthers (+400) – NFC South
As in most years, this division is wide open. The Buccaneers are the betting favorite, but not by much. The Panthers are optimistic about Bryce Young, Chuba Hubbard, and an improved defense. Young’s numbers in the final month of last season were among the best in the league, with an average QBR over 100. If his upward trajectory continues, this offense could be dangerous. With one of the easiest schedules in the NFL (they have only five games against 2024 playoff teams), Carolina has an opportunity to quietly stack wins.
Parting Shot
The NFL never fails to deliver surprises and each of these teams has a path to turning preseason doubt into postseason runs. Whether fueled by a breakout quarterback, a wide-open division, or momentum from last season, these longshots have a realistic chance to finish on top. Which of them will prove the oddsmakers wrong in 2025?
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