It was a profitable few days for our wild-card series bets, which have also given us more information to work with when looking ahead to the ALDS and NLDS.
There’s an All-AL East matchup, the Seattle Mariners have waited patiently to face an AL Central foe, and there’s a contest between the two teams which have been the NL favorites from start to finish of the regular season.
Seattle Mariners vs. Detroit Tigers: Mariners Win 3-1 (+320)
Detroit is starting the series with a bullpen game. In all likelihood, Seattle will be giving the ball to Logan Gilbert for Game 1, with Luis Castillo and Bryan Woo to follow.
Formidable at home and owning the best lineup in baseball in September, the Mariners are going to take at least one of the first two games. A sweep is very much in play if they get a win against Tarik Skubal in Game 2 (Mariners -1.5 games is +130 at FanDuel).
Detroit’s offense only mustered three runs across the first two games of the wild-card round. The pitching staff was impressive, but the bullpen’s ERA was 1.46 higher than Seattle’s in September.
This is only the Mariners’ second playoff appearance since 2001. Coming off a spectacular run to end their division drought, the crowd is going to be ferocious. It will be a different challenge than the Tigers faced in Cleveland, and against a much more talented roster.
Skubal’s presence means Detroit should be able to steal a game, but this series looks like a complete mismatch. The Mariners are serious World Series contenders with their stacked rotation and a deep lineup.
Toronto Blue Jays vs. New York Yankees: Over 4.5 Games (+166)
Toronto went 8-5 against the Yankees in the regular season. The performances of Max Fried, Cam Schlittler, and Carlos Rodón give the Yankees a strong platform to build on in the ALDS, but the bullpen was far from perfect against the Red Sox.
The Jays were a dominant 54-27 at home in the regular season. Home-field advantage is a very real factor for Toronto in this series and it certainly wouldn’t be surprising to see the Jays go 2-0 up before the teams arrive in New York.
We’ve seen this Blue Jays lineup can keep pace with the Yankees. Their production dropped off in the latter stages of the regular season, but there’s no guarantee that will continue, particularly in front of what will be a loud home crowd on Saturday and Sunday.
There are questions about the Jays’ rotation. A lot relies on Kevin Gausman giving them two strong starts. It’s hard to know what to expect from their other arms. Still, these are experienced heads who shouldn’t be spooked by taking the mound at Yankee Stadium.
It makes sense the Jays are underdogs for this matchup, considering how much better the Yankees have been over the last few weeks. Still, it would be foolish to write off a Jays team with a veteran rotation and a stacked lineup. They should scrap enough to force a Game 5, and at this price, I’m in.
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Los Angeles Dodgers: Dodgers Win 3-1 (+340)
Shohei Ohtani followed by Blake Snell and Yoshinobu Yamamoto is a scary prospect. It’s scarier still for the Phils with Zack Wheeler ruled out for the year. Plus, a rested Tyler Glasnow and Emmet Sheehan are waiting in the wings for the Dodgers.
Philadelphia has a deep lineup with postseason experience aplenty, but its success in this series depends on how much damage they can do against Los Angeles’ bullpen.
The Phils aren’t fully confident in their relief corps, either. Their pitching depends on Cristopher Sánchez and Ranger Suárez pitching at a Cy Young-contending level, and both pitchers had their struggles down the stretch.
As expected with a team so blessed with stars, the Dodgers looked pretty much flawless in the wild-card round. Yes, the Reds are nowhere near as good as the Phillies, but it was an ominous couple of games for the rest of the National League, with the Dodgers getting contributions up and down the lineup.
This bet is all about the Phillies’ lineup doing enough damage against the Dodgers’ bullpen to win one of the two games in the City of Brotherly Love. It threatens to be an easy series for the Dodgers if their starters repeat their wild-card showings.
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Chicago Cubs: Cubs Win Series (+100)
The second of two divisional matchups in the Division Series sees the Brewers face the Cubs. Chicago are narrow underdogs, with the Brewers enduring a significant slump in September, and the Cubs riding a high after eliminating the Padres.
Both teams have deep bullpens they should be able to rely on. Chicago’s offense was considerably better in September but didn’t score more than three runs in a game during the wild-card round.
It looks like the most well-matched of the Division Series contests. The Cubs had a 7-6 advantage in the regular season, including a 3-1 triumph in their final series of the year. Milwaukee was the better team overall, but their hot streak during the summer months feels a long time ago.
There’s a wide range of outcomes with Milwaukee’s rotation behind Freddy Peralta. Chicago’s rotation could be bolstered by the return of Cade Horton towards the end of this series, and they showed they can stitch together a competitive bullpen game in Game 2 of the first round.
The star power of Kyle Tucker and Seiya Suzuki could make all the difference for the Cubs offensively. Recent weeks suggest Milwaukee’s offense won’t be able to keep pace, so we’ll take the Cubs at this number.
Want more Sandman? Come connect with us here at sandmansports.com/onestopshop
