Divisions are pretty much irrelevant in the NBA. They are only used for tiebreaker purposes, and of course, for betting. It can be a good way to find some value in the futures markets, given that divisions are often more competitive than the overall conference standings.
There are clear favorites in three of the six divisions as of Oct. 2, but it only takes one team to overachieve or underachieve for an outsider to finish in the top spot. The Rockets are heavy favorites in the Southwest, for instance, but they are already with Fred VanVleet for the year so how does their outlook change if Kevin Durant misses a couple of months?
There have been plenty of surprise division winners in recent seasons. The Magic nudged the Heat in 2023-24. Sacramento topped the Pacific, and the Grizz finished nine games clear in 2022-23. Phoenix wasn’t expected to win the Pacific so comfortably in 2021-22. The Raptors finished five games clear in 2019-20 after Kawhi Leonard departed for the sunnier surroundings of Los Angeles.
That unpredictability is what makes these wagers fun and potentially profitable. With that in mind, here are my favorite division picks for the 2025-26 season.
Central: Detroit Pistons (+500)
The Cavaliers are following the path of many ascending NBA teams. They’ve had their dominant regular season and a couple of playoff failings. Like the Bucks, Nuggets, and others in the recent past, it might be time for Cleveland to cruise through the regular season and put less emphasis on a high seeding.
That could open the door for the Pistons in the Central. Cade Cunningham could take the leap to First Team All-NBA. Ausar Thompson is a legitimate Most Improved Player candidate, and it’ll be fascinating to see how Jaden Ivey looks after his injury.
Detroit was in the top 10 in net rating after the All-Star break last season. The Cavs are already without Max Strus and Darius Garland for the start of the season. If the Pistons can get to 50 wins, they have a real chance of winning their first division title since 2008.
Northwest: Denver Nuggets (+440)
The Thunder wouldn’t be the first team to take their foot off the gas after winning the title. OKC doesn’t have anything to prove in this regular season. Denver has a proper bench for the first time since Nikola Jokić became the version that could have won five MVPs in a row.
The 18-win gap helps us access these long odds on the Nuggets. This is a vastly improved Denver team. Cam Johnson is a much more durable option on the wing. Jonas Valančiūnas gives the Nuggets a chance to win games even when the Joker is out. Tim Hardaway Jr. and Bruce Brown are perfect bench players next to their core stars.
It’s not exactly outrageous to suggest the Nuggets could win 57+ games. Jamal Murray is fully healthy and should be fresher than he’s been in years after a quiet summer. Jokić remains the best player in the Association.
All it takes is a bit of natural regression from the Thunder. An injury to Shai Gilgeous-Alexander would firmly put the Nuggets in the mix for the Northwest, even with OKC’s league-leading depth.
Southeast: Atlanta Hawks (+175)
The Cavs and Knicks are the two Eastern Conference favorites. Atlanta and Orlando, two teams in the Southeast Division, are hoping to join the top two in the absence of the Celtics and Pacers.
Orlando’s odds are understandably shorter. The Franz Wagner, Paolo Banchero, and Jalen Suggs core was instantly upgraded with the addition of Desmond Bane. An elite defense could finally have a viable offense to partner with.
Atlanta, though, shouldn’t be overlooked. Trae Young has been more than willing to move the ball with Quin Snyder as head coach. Jalen Johnson, Dyson Daniels, and Zaccharie Risacher are an exciting wing trio. Nickeil Alexander-Walker and Kristaps Porziņģis were shrewd veteran acquisitions.
The Hawks’ ceiling could see them finish above the Magic, even if Orlando lives up to its preseason expectations and wins 48+ games.
Southwest: San Antonio Spurs (+410)
You probably knew this was coming given the mention of VanVleet’s injury in the introduction. Houston is the deserving division favorites after adding Durant, and they were a very effective regular season team even without KD in 2024-25.
Still, the Rockets’ ball-handling options are very limited if Durant misses time, which is always likely. There’s enormous pressure on Reed Sheppard after limited time as a rookie.
San Antonio is a work in progress. This is largely a wager on Victor Wembanyama taking another frightening leap. He’s also accompanied by a legitimate co-star in De’Aaron Fox, along with elite young talents Dylan Harper and Stephon Castle.
The Spurs have some fit questions. They aren’t ready to contend for the title. Still, a top six berth is within reach, and that could lead to a tight race for the Southwest Division if the Rockets fail to take a step forward.
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