Opening night of the 2025-26 NBA season is almost here, which means it’s time to dive into win totals. These are one of my favorite futures bets, but the key is being selective. Sportsbooks usually set sharp lines across the league, so it’s not about picking an over or under for every team.
Instead, I look for 8 to 12 spots that truly offer value. That means weighing past win totals, offseason moves, and the chances of things like tanking, load management, or shifting player usage. Some numbers always feel too low or too high, and those are the opportunities worth circling. On the flip side, lines like the Hawks at 47.5 or the Kings at 34.5 look right in the ballpark, so those are better left alone.
Denver Nuggets 55+ Wins (+102)
Denver just had its best offseason in years. Jonas Valančiūnas, Tim Hardaway Jr., Bruce Brown, and Cam Johnson check all the boxes for a supporting cast around Jamal Murray, Christian Braun, Aaron Gordon, and Nikola Jokić.
Valančiūnas’s presence should provide damage limitation in non-Jokić minutes. Johnson is more reliable than Michael Porter Jr., Hardaway’s shooting is useful off the bench, and Brown is a tried and tested accomplice for the Joker and Murray.
The Nuggets have only hit the 55-win landmark once in the Jokić era, but this is their deepest roster of his peak. A turbulent 2024-25 brought 50 wins, thus adding five more seems like a pretty reasonable ask.
Atlanta Hawks Over 47.5 Wins (+102)
Atlanta strengthened an already promising core with key summer additions. Kristaps Porziņģis and Nickeil Alexander-Walker bring rim protection, shooting, and perimeter defense.
Trae Young has been more of a team player under Quin Synder, which threatens to bring the best out of Jalen Johnson, Zaccharie Risacher, and Dyson Daniels on the offensive end in 2025-26.
It’s a big leap from 40 wins to 48, but it becomes less outrageous a projection with the Pacers and Celtics facing down years. Snyder also went over this line in five of his last six seasons in charge of the Jazz.
Chicago Bulls Over 32.5 Wins (-104)
No team is as desperate for mediocrity as the Bulls. Chicago chases the bottom half of the play-in tournament like it’s an NBA Finals berth. In a laughingly weak Eastern Conference, the Bulls are going to push hard to make the playoffs.
Winning 32 or fewer games would likely mean a finish in the bottom three. The Wizards and Nets will definitely be worse than the Bulls. At least one other team is likely to have an injury-derailed campaign or choose to tank. Chicago has a young, healthy roster, and will not be going down the rebuilding route.
This team won 39 games in 2024-25. They are more likely to win 41 in 2025-26 than hit the under. We actually also like 35+ wins at +140.
Houston Rockets Under 52.5 Wins (-104)
Houston won 52 games last season and added Kevin Durant in the offseason. It should be a no-brainer to take the over, but there’s some serious downside with this team after Fred VanVleet’s injury.
Durant is going to miss at least 10 games. There’s a distinct lack of ball-handling in VanVleet’s absence, and their depth was diminished by moving Dillon Brooks and Jalen Green.
This Western Conference is brutal. It won’t be a failure if the Rockets win 52 or fewer games, and they could still go on a deep playoff run.
Memphis Grizzlies Under 40.5 Wins (-128)
Jaren Jackson Jr., Zach Edey, and Brandon Clarke are going to miss the start of the season. Desmond Bane was traded to Orlando. Ja Morant’s availability seems to be constantly uncertain.
Memphis might have won 48 games last season, but this franchise isn’t trending in the right direction. They are a strong candidate to change course and look towards a stacked 2026 NBA draft.
The Grizz have done a nice job at finding rotation players to help them collect wins even when depleted, but that’s not enough to get them to 41 wins in the brutal West.
Washington Wizards Over 21.5 Wins (-102)
Winning 22 games won’t have too big an impact on the Wizards’ lottery odds. Washington has veteran leadership in CJ McCollum and Khris Middleton, and should be looking to work on the chemistry between its young core.
Will Riley and Tre Johnson are going to be rotation players. Corey Kispert is a functional wing. Bilal Coulibaly, Alex Sarr, and Bub Carrington have shown promising flashes. Cam Whitmore should relish the opportunity on a new team.
Washington has more talent than Brooklyn. There are plenty of middle-of-the-pack Eastern Conference teams that could slip up against a high-energy Wizards team.
New Orleans Pelicans 40+ Wins (+580)
These are incredibly long odds for a team as talented as the Pels. New Orleans is motivated to contend after trading away its 2026 first-round pick, and 40 wins is hardly an unreachable threshold for Willie Green’s team.
This isn’t a bet on the Pels reaching the playoffs. Forty wins might not even earn a play-in spot in the Western Conference.
Zion Williamson is in his best shape since Duke. Trey Murphy III is a fringe All-Star candidate. Jordan Poole brings shot creation and offensive punch. Kevon Looney was a smart veteran addition.
It’s a big leap from 21 wins last season, but it’s certainly feasible and at these odds, we’ll gladly give it a run.
Phoenix Suns Under 32.5 Wins (-128)
The odds on this market show where the money has been going. People are prepared for the Suns to be seriously bad in 2025-26.
Phoenix only won 36 games last season with Durant and Bradley Beal playing 62 and 53 games, respectively. Brooks, Green, and the oft-injured Mark Williams aren’t enough to compensate for the losses of Durant and Beal.
Devin Booker’s 75 games last season was his most since 2016-17. This Phoenix team is going to struggle to beat anyone if Booker misses time. This under would be worth backing even if the line moved to 30.5.
Portland Trail Blazers Over 34.5 Wins (-102)
Portland won 36 games last season and swapped Anfernee Simons for Jrue Holiday in the offseason. Toumani Camara should take another step forward, and there’s plenty of interest in Yang Hansen.
The Blazers quietly improved in 2025, with Chauncy Billups’ team ranking 10th in net rating from January 18 onwards. Their record was 23-18 in the second half. Part of that came from beating up on depleted and/or disinterested opponents, but it shows Billups’ team will play hard even if they are out of contention down the stretch.
That works in our favor when backing the over. This isn’t a team primed to take a massive leap; nonetheless, they are going to play hard and could push towards the .500 mark.
Orlando Magic 55+ Wins (+182)
Bane was exactly the acquisition the Magic needed. This team is primed to take a leap in 2025-26, having added offensive firepower to an already elite defense.
Even with Franz Wagner missing 22 games, Paolo Banchero missing 36, and Jalen Suggs playing less than half a season, the Magic won 41 games in 2024-25. Bane should at least elevate them towards league average on the offensive end, while they will easily be a top-five defensive team.
They had a +5.8 net rating in Wagner’s minutes last season, despite his jumpshot woes. Banchero already looks like a true number one option. Suggs is one of the best perimeter defenders in the league.
Teams often have a breakout regular season before putting it together in the playoffs. I wouldn’t back the Magic for the title, but this represents great value.
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