The NFC South has long been known for its unpredictability, with division titles bouncing back and forth from year to year. That stretch looks to be over. The Buccaneers won the crown in 2024 and are in position to repeat in 2025, with Baker Mayfield now established as the face of the division. Atlanta has an exciting young offense that will make for some entertaining battles, but the back half of this division looks shaky at best.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers
The Buccaneers experienced both highs and lows in 2024. Mayfield finally looked like the steady quarterback they had been searching for, guiding them to a division title, only to fall victim to a red-hot rookie in the playoffs. This season, continuity on offense gives Tampa Bay reason to believe they can go further.
Mike Evans returns after his 11th straight 1,000-yard season, and Chris Godwin is working his way back from injury. Rookie Bucky Irving is now firmly in place as the lead running back, rounding out a group that looks dangerous. Defensively, the mix of reliable veterans and unproven youth leaves questions, but the potential is there to improve.
Rookie to Watch: Emeka Egbuka
The first-round receiver from Ohio State is set to start while Godwin recovers. Even once Godwin returns, Egbuka figures to carve out a consistent role. Mayfield has never shied away from spreading the ball around, and with Evans drawing double coverage, Egbuka should find space to operate.
How Does the Line Hold Without Wirfs?
All-Pro left tackle Tristan Wirfs will miss about a month following knee surgery. Luke Goedeke remains a steady presence on the right side, but there is no true replacement for Wirfs. Expect Tampa Bay to lean more heavily on Irving in the run game and use shorter passing schemes until Mayfield’s blind side is secured.
The Verdict
The Buccaneers have the look of a team on the rise, with a quarterback who is underrated and a roster that could make a deep playoff run if the defense matures.
2025 Projected Record: 11–6 (O/U: 9.5)
Division Projection: 1st
Atlanta Falcons
A year after handing Kirk Cousins a massive contract, the Falcons have turned to Michael Penix Jr. as their starting quarterback. The move signals a new era in Atlanta, with Penix, Bijan Robinson, and Drake London forming the core of what the franchise hopes will be its offense for years to come.
The defense is far less certain. Heavy rookie contributions will be required for this group to compete, and growing pains are inevitable.
Is This the End of the Kyle Pitts Experiment?
When the Falcons drafted Pitts high in the first round, expectations soared. Four years later, his rookie season remains his most productive, and the deeper analytics are not flattering. His catch-to-target rate barely topped 50 percent, he has not surpassed 700 yards since that first year, and he has only 10 touchdowns to his name. With London and Darnell Mooney proving more consistent as targets, this could be Pitts’ final season in Atlanta.
Will Rookie Pass Rushers Take Over by Year’s End?
The Falcons’ defensive line lacks impact. Leonard Floyd is best used situationally, and Arnold Ebiketie profiles as a rotational piece on most rosters. To fix that, Atlanta invested two first-round picks in edge rushers Jalon Walker and James Pearce Jr. Both will rotate in early, but it would not be surprising if they become the starters before season’s end.
The Verdict
This will be a fun team to watch with Penix at the helm, but the Falcons are still a year or two away from true contention. Expect plenty of close games and shootouts, but not enough wins to make noise in January.
2025 Projected Record: 8–9 (O/U: 7.5)
Division Projection: 2nd
Carolina Panthers
Bryce Young enters Year 3 with another chance to prove he can be a starting quarterback in this league, but the supporting cast may not be enough to help him succeed. His numbers remain grim, and the roster around him raises more concerns than confidence.
The offensive line is battered, the defense lacks recognizable talent, and the receiver room is thin. Hunter Renfrow is penciled in as the slot option after sitting out last year, while rookie Tetairoa McMillan and second-year wideout Xavier Legette will be leaned on heavily.
How Many Defensive Rookies Will Contribute?
Five rookies sit as second-stringers on the defensive depth chart, including two undrafted players. At least three could move into meaningful roles quickly. Linebacker Nic Scourton is more of a hybrid edge player and could see pass-rush snaps early. Princely Umanmielen fits the same mold, while safety Lathan Ransom will likely start on special teams but could push for nickel work.
Can the Line Survive Early Injuries?
With multiple starters already sidelined, Carolina faces a serious challenge up front. Young has shown early-career habits of rushing throws under pressure, making protection vital. The Panthers may need to keep extra blockers in and simplify schemes to give him any chance of stability.
The Verdict
Carolina is still firmly in rebuild mode. Young’s development remains the focus, but the roster around him is not built to win.
2025 Projected Record: 5–12 (O/U: 6.5)
Division Projection: 3rd
New Orleans Saints
Few teams in the league face a bleaker outlook than New Orleans. Years of kicking salary-cap issues down the road have left the roster in shambles, and the rebuild has barely begun. Spencer Rattler opens the season as the starting quarterback, but there is little faith he can hold the job for long.
How Long Before Tyler Shough Plays?
Shough was widely expected to win the job, but preseason struggles and a minor knee injury delayed his debut. Rattler has looked overmatched in the NFL, and if that trend continues, the Saints may have no choice but to turn to Shough sooner rather than later.
Is This an Unofficial Tank?
No team will admit to tanking, but this roster looks like it is headed in that direction. With elite quarterback prospects on the horizon in 2026, including LSU’s Garrett Nussmeier, this could be the season New Orleans finally embraces a full rebuild.
The Verdict
The Saints are entering a long road back. 2025 will be about evaluation, patience, and preparing for the future.
2025 Projected Record: 3–14 (O/U: 4.5)
Division Projection: 4th
Final Thoughts
The Buccaneers are the clear class of the NFC South and look poised for another division title. Atlanta has the offensive talent to make games exciting, but defensive limitations will cap their ceiling. Carolina is still searching for an identity, and New Orleans appears headed for a reset. Expect Tampa Bay to stay on top while the rest of the division continues to sort through transition.
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