Some bettors focus on win totals. Others turn to futures. And then there are those who want to call their shot on the awards stage. The 2025 NFL season brings no shortage of star power, but it also leaves the door open for breakout campaigns that could shake up the MVP and Offensive Rookie of the Year races.
We all know the favorites. Josh Allen, Lamar Jackson, Cam Ward, and Ashton Jeanty will dominate the headlines. But what about the names sitting further down the board?
Here are a few longshot candidates worth watching for MVP and Offensive Rookie of the Year..
MVP Candidates
Saquon Barkley – RB, Philadelphia Eagles
MVP Odds Range: +4000 to +5000
A running back has not won MVP since Adrian Peterson in 2012, and Christian McCaffrey’s 2023 season only got him third in the voting. But if any back is going to break through, it might be Saquon.
Barkley rushed for 2,005 yards and 13 touchdowns in 2024, adding nearly 300 receiving yards and two more scores. He is the focal point of Philadelphia’s offense and has the kind of highlight reel plays that grab voters’ attention. The biggest obstacle is the infamous Tush Push. With Philly leaning heavily on their QB sneak package near the goal line, Barkley could lose critical red zone touchdowns that might otherwise bolster his MVP case.
Dak Prescott – QB, Dallas Cowboys
MVP Odds Range: +3000 to +4000
Public confidence in Dak is low, but the setup might be better than people think. CeeDee Lamb remains one of the best receivers in football, Jake Ferguson is a reliable safety net, and the addition of George Pickens could open up new lanes in the passing game.
The offensive line is in transition, but first-rounder Tyler Smith brings upside, and running backs Javonte Williams and Miles Sanders offer a power-speed combo with potential. If Prescott stays healthy and puts up big numbers, he has a real chance to remind voters what he is capable of.
Baker Mayfield – QB, Tampa Bay Buccaneers
MVP Odds Range: +2500 to +3500
Mayfield threw for 4,500 yards and 41 touchdowns in 2024. His team exited early in the playoffs, but he proved he still has the talent that made him a number one pick.
With Mike Evans, Chris Godwin, and All-Pro tackle Tristan Wirfs protecting him, Mayfield is surrounded by talent. If rookie Emeka Egbuka becomes a true WR3 and Bucky Irving progresses in the backfield, the pieces are in place. Turnovers are a concern, as is the lack of a strong tight end, but the ceiling is there. Mayfield could be a real factor in the MVP race.
Offensive Rookie of the Year Candidates
Jaxson Dart – QB, New York Giants
OROTY Odds: +2500
Dart may not be a Week 1 starter, but his path to playing time is clearer than most. The Giants have Russell Wilson and Jameis Winston ahead of him on the depth chart, but neither has a firm grip on the job.
If Wilson struggles and Dart performs well in camp, Brian Daboll may not hesitate to make the switch. Dart has a potential star in Malik Nabers at wide receiver, and if the two develop chemistry, Dart could make a fast climb up the OROTY leaderboard.
TreVeyon Henderson – RB, New England Patriots
OROTY Odds: +2000 to +2200
With questions surrounding New England’s wide receiver group and the regression of Rhamondre Stevenson, there is a real opportunity for Henderson to become the lead back.
The Ohio State product is a downhill runner with three-down versatility. If he takes over the backfield early and helps balance the offense for Drake Maye, Henderson has a real chance to emerge as one of the league’s most productive rookies.
Jalen Milroe – QB, Seattle Seahawks
OROTY Odds: +5000 to +7500
Milroe is the ultimate flier. He is unlikely to start right away, but Sam Darnold is the placeholder in Seattle, and that role could be short-lived.
If Milroe sees the field, his dynamic athleticism could electrify the Seahawks offense. He has a big arm and can extend plays with his legs. If things break right, Milroe could be the kind of breakout rookie who turns heads and captures attention.
Parting Shot
When it comes to MVP and OROTY futures, it is all about opportunity and upside. The path to the field is just as important as the skillset. Players like Prescott and Mayfield have proven tools. Others like Dart and Milroe just need the right moment.
These awards are rarely predictable. If you are going to take a shot, make it count. Trust your instincts, study the situations, and do not be afraid to go against the grain.
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