The NFL MVP race has always carried a certain electricity, but this year feels particularly wide open. As the 2025–26 season kicks off, sportsbooks and fans alike are debating who will take home the league’s most prestigious individual award. Some familiar faces headline the early odds, but a new generation of players is pushing to carve their names into MVP history. Consider this your early-season snapshot, and remember you heard it here at Sandman Sports first.
The Early Favorites
Josh Allen enters this season as the reigning MVP and remains at the top of most sportsbooks’ boards. DraftKings lists him at +550, while FanDuel gives him slightly shorter odds at +500. Allen has built his case not just on his cannon arm, but on his ability to dominate games in multiple ways. He has already shown the poise and firepower that made him last year’s choice, engineering fourth-quarter drives and flashing chemistry with his receivers. For Buffalo, Allen is not just the franchise quarterback. He is the engine behind their Super Bowl hopes, and that alone keeps him at the center of the MVP conversation.
Lamar Jackson stands right beside him, listed at +600 on both DraftKings and FanDuel. A two-time MVP already, Jackson has picked up right where he left off last season, electrifying defenses with his legs while threading passes through tight windows. What makes Jackson such a compelling candidate again this year is not only his box-score dominance but also the way Baltimore leans on him in critical moments. When games tighten, his improvisation and leadership consistently shine.
The Rising Contenders
Jalen Hurts has a strong case for being considered as a top candidate. The Eagles’ star is known for his consistency, and that narrative has not changed this fall. Hurts has already shown his ability to take over games with both his arm and his legs, using the Eagles’ strong offensive line to maximize his dual-threat impact. His calm under pressure and his knack for winning tight games keep him relevant in every MVP discussion.
The younger faces in this conversation are where things get intriguing. Jayden Daniels, Washington’s breakout rookie from last year, now enters his sophomore season with undeniable dual-threat ability. Through the first few weeks he has displayed a rare calmness for a young player, guiding the Commanders’ offense with surprising maturity, despite last week’s setback in Green Bay. His MVP odds were +1800 before sustaining a knee injury against the Packers on Thursday night, and that reflected the potential for him to become this year’s breakout MVP storyline if Washington continues to climb.
Jordan Love in Green Bay is another rising star who has impressed in the early going. His steady progression has been clear, and his leadership of a young Packers roster suggests he is ready for the next leap and could be taking the team with him. Love’s accuracy and decision-making have been sharper this season, and FanDuel’s +2200 line underscores the respect he is earning from bettors. Right now Green Bay looks like the best team in the NFC. If that continues, Love will be a central reason why and grabbing him at his current odds will be a gift.
Sleeper Candidates
C.J. Stroud in Houston is definitely more of a dark horse, but still one that might be worth keeping an eye on. The Texans have opened 0-2, though in a weak AFC South they are more than capable of stacking some wins fast. Even with the current record, Stroud has shown more of the poise and accuracy that stood out in his rookie year. At +2500, the number is at least interesting, and if he can get Houston rolling while putting up decent passing stats, there will be a case to keep him in the conversation.
Bijan Robinson is perhaps the boldest pick of all. Running backs simply do not win this award in today’s NFL, with Adrian Peterson in 2012 being the last to do it. Still, Robinson’s versatility and explosiveness make him the kind of player who could force his way into the conversation. If Atlanta leans on him as the focal point of the offense and he produces monster numbers, he could buck the quarterback trend. At +6000, bettors know it is a long shot, but his talent makes him worth mentioning.
A Look Back at MVP History
Quarterbacks have overwhelmingly dominated this award, and history suggests that trend will likely continue. Adrian Peterson’s 2012 season, where he rushed for over 2,000 yards, remains the most recent exception. Before him, LaDainian Tomlinson in 2006 and Shaun Alexander in 2005 won from the running back position, but the last decade has been all quarterbacks.
Back-to-back winners are rare, with the only five to ever do it being Jim Brown, Joe Montana, Brett Favre, Peyton Manning, and Aaron Rodgers. Manning also holds the distinction of winning a record five MVPs, while Brett Favre actually pulled off three in a row during the 1990s. That kind of streak is what Allen would be chasing if he can repeat this year.
It is also worth noting that several active MVPs remain in the mix. I believe Aaron Rodgers’ best days are behind him and not worth serious consideration here, but Patrick Mahomes, a two-time winner, shouldn’t necessarily be overlooked. He remains one of the most talented quarterbacks in football, though his production may be limited by an aging Travis Kelce and the lack of explosive receivers, at least until Rashee Rice returns from suspension in Week 7.
Betting Strategy
MVP betting works best when balancing the obvious choices with calculated risks. Allen and Jackson are the safest plays at this stage, both because of their proven track records and the likelihood that their teams will finish with elite records. For those looking for value, players like Daniels and Love offer a path where talent, opportunity, and narrative meet. And then there are the true long shots, like Stroud, and Robinson, who could deliver outsized returns if everything breaks perfectly in their favor.
