Most Improved Player is the most wide open of the NBA awards when the odds first go live during the offseason. There is rarely a clear favorite until a few weeks into the new season, and the 2025-26 campaign is no exception, with no players shorter than +1000 to win the award.
Increased usage is one of the key factors when trying to identify the Most Improved Player. A player can only win if they have the chance to showcase how they have developed their game, even if that simply means scoring at a higher volume than before.
It is also worth considering which players showed signs of improvement toward the end of last season. Did a player make a leap on the defensive end? Did their three-point shot start falling? Was there improvement in shot selection? They could be a Most Improved candidate if they carry that momentum into the new season.
Most Improved Player Odds
Deni Avdija +1000
Andrew Nembhard +1000
Amen Thompson +1700
Bennedict Mathurin +1700
Shaedon Sharpe +2000
Matas Buzelis +2000
Jaden Ivey +2000
Ausar Thompson +2500
Jalen Johnson +2500
*Odds courtesy of FanDuel Sportsbook on Aug. 8
Avdija’s Case
Avdija’s usage was a career-high 23.2 percent in 2024-25. His true shooting percentage and assist rate were also career bests. There were signs of a breakout last year, but this might be more of a steady progression toward becoming one of the league’s better role players.
His usage is unlikely to skyrocket even with Jrue Holiday replacing Anfernee Simons. Scoot Henderson and Shaedon Sharpe still need plenty of on-ball reps while Portland figures out what it has in its former lottery picks.
Avdija scored 16.9 points per game last season. He could reach 20 per game, but that does not feel likely given the construction of this Blazers roster. Other players are better positioned for a Most Improved campaign, so there is no real value taking the former Wizard at this price.
Pacers Opportunities
With Tyrese Haliburton out for the year, Nembhard and Mathurin are rightly among the favorites. Nembhard averaged only 8.3 shots per game last season, while Mathurin was at 11.8. A total of 25.1 field goal attempts and 10.7 assists per game have been lost with Haliburton sidelined and Myles Turner now in Milwaukee.
Indiana has not brought in players to fill the void. Nembhard and Mathurin will both benefit from a major usage increase, which could vault them into the Most Improved mix.
It is rare for a team to have two serious candidates for this award. Nembhard needs to prove he can be a consistent shot maker and outside shooter. Mathurin’s challenge is improving on a 1:1 assist-to-turnover ratio and showing he can be more than a self-creator.
Nembhard is rightly the shorter price given his expected boost in assists, which could jump to seven or eight per game. Mathurin’s upside is higher, though, making him a tempting option at +1700.
Thompson Twins
Amen is the better player entering the season. Ausar has had a smaller role so far but a clearer path to a significant usage increase in 2025-26.
The arrival of Kevin Durant puts a ceiling on what Amen will do this season. It is a fearsome wing pairing for Ime Udoka, but Amen is unlikely to become an 18-point-per-game scorer with Durant taking so many shots. He was already an All-Defense-caliber player, but the scoring needs to improve for him to win Most Improved.
Detroit is a step or two behind Houston in their respective pushes toward contention. The Pistons are more focused on developing Ausar as a result, with the athletic wing a key part of their long-term core alongside Cade Cunningham and Jalen Duren.
Ausar was a winning player last year. Detroit was 3.5 points per 100 possessions better with him on the court, and that number grew exponentially in the playoffs. He has received less hype than his brother so far, but he is the better value pick in this market.
Portland’s Future
Portland replaced Anfernee Simons’ 16.1 shots per game with Jrue Holiday’s 9.2. Instead of looking at Avdija as the main beneficiary, Henderson (+3000) and Sharpe (+2000) are much more appealing betting options.
Sharpe is a freak athlete, and the Blazers improved in his minutes as the season went on. Henderson should be running the offense, as Portland needs to see what he can do with a 25 percent usage rate after making big strides in his second season.
There is a world where Sharpe scores around 22 points per game on improved efficiency. Henderson, mentored by Holiday and Damian Lillard, could score 18 per game and average eight assists.
Former lottery picks with opportunity are always worth watching for Most Improved Player.
Uncertain Situations
Some outsiders for this award are worth monitoring because of the uncertainty in their situations.
Does Michael Porter Jr. (+3000) take 25 or more shots per game as a Net and compete for the scoring title? Where does Jonathan Kuminga (+3500) end up, and could he become a first or second option on a rebuilding team?
Nikola Jović (+3500) might become an integral part of the Heat. Trey Murphy III’s (+4000) usage rate could spike with Dejounte Murray injured and Zion Williamson’s future in New Orleans uncertain.
What if Kevin Porter Jr. (+6000) unlocks his potential as Milwaukee’s lead guard? The talent is there, as shown in his 2022-23 campaign with Houston.
Predominantly a bench player through his first five years, Onyeka Okongwu (+7500) could finally secure the starting center spot. He has started to incorporate more three-point shooting and posted his best rebounding rate in 2024-25.
Most of the favorites are deservedly at shorter odds than those mentioned here, but it pays to be open-minded when analyzing Most Improved Player. Outsiders have won this award plenty of times over the years, and there are several long-shot options worth considering for 2025-26.
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