Opening NBA Coach of the Year Odds: Who’s Worth Backing?
Coach of the Year is one of the NBA’s more subjective awards. There are metrics to evaluate how effective coaches are with plays out of timeouts or at end-of-game situations, but there is also a wider evaluation of how they navigated the rigors of the regular season.
The award often boils down to the team that most drastically overachieved its expectations or pulled off a historic achievement. Even the best coaches stand little chance of being in the Coach of the Year reckoning if they are given a weak or ill-fitting roster.
Coach of the Year Odds
Jamahl Mosley +400
Quin Snyder +500
David Adelman +800
Ime Udoka +850
Mitch Johnson +1000
JB Bickerstaff +1500
Darko Rajakovic +1500
Mike Brown +2000
Chris Finch +2500
Ty Lue +2500
JJ Redick +3000
Erik Spoelstra +3000
*Odds courtesy of FanDuel Sportsbook on Aug. 8
Magic Tipped to Make a Leap
Adding Desmond Bane and Tyus Jones elevated the Magic into our top three Eastern Conference contenders. With a vacancy at the top of the East amid injuries to Jayson Tatum and Tyrese Haliburton, Orlando is poised to finally take the leap from promising young team to legitimate Finals candidate.
Mosley is yet to make Orlando into even a league-average offense. It is a curse which has put a hard ceiling on the team for longer than any Magic fan would like to remember. For the first time in his stint as coach, Mosley has a roster that should be at least in the top half in offensive rating, with Bane bringing much-needed shooting alongside Franz Wagner and Paolo Banchero.
The defense is going to be elite. With good health, Orlando has the upside to win 50 or more games in an embarrassingly weak Eastern Conference. That kind of season would firmly put Mosley in the Coach of the Year race.
Snyder Chasing Eastern Conference Opening
Like Orlando, Atlanta is eyeing a top-four seed. The Hawks added to their arsenal of wing players with Nickeil Alexander-Walker, brought in more shooting in the form of Luke Kennard, and have given themselves options in the frontcourt with Kristaps Porziņģis.
Snyder twice finished in the top two in Coach of the Year voting during his time leading the Utah Jazz. The Mercer Island native took Utah to three 50-win seasons and has an opportunity to make Atlanta into a regular-season winning machine with Trae Young surrounded by shooting and long wings.
Despite having the pedigree that suggests he could win this award, Snyder has less proven quantities than Mosley is working with. The blueprint for Mosley is simpler. Snyder has to figure out if a team can be even a passable defense with Young on the court.
What Can Adelman Do?
Adelman has a much better roster than he was working with at the end of last season. Jonas Valančiūnas, Cam Johnson, Bruce Brown, and Tim Hardaway Jr. have been added to the Nikola Jokic, Jamal Murray, Aaron Gordon, and Christian Braun core.
The question is whether Denver has enough of a ceiling for Adelman to win this award. The Nuggets should win 50 or more games. It would take a miracle season to finish ahead of the Oklahoma City Thunder.
So, does Adelman need to win 60 games to win Coach of the Year? This Nuggets team has been a contender for half a decade and has the best player in the world. He might get credit for being new to the NBA head-coaching game, but the Nuggets front office and their established core are more likely to receive the honors if Denver has a strong season. A veteran team is unlikely to drastically exceed preseason expectations.
Udoka’s Rockets
Udoka was fourth in Coach of the Year voting in 2021–22 and third last season. His Rockets were second in the Western Conference last term, and added Kevin Durant, Dorian Finney-Smith, and Clint Capela this summer.
Highly regarded around the league and by media members (as reflected in his vote tallies), Udoka looks like a leading candidate for Coach of the Year. With 52 wins and ranking seventh in net rating, there is room for improvement, which is key as Udoka looks to prove he has taken Houston to the next level.
The Rockets play hard. Udoka gets his team to play all-in throughout the regular season. That plays well with voters.
Western Conference Outsiders
Mitch Johnson, Ty Lue, and JJ Redick are intriguing longshots. Johnson’s San Antonio Spurs are upwardly mobile with Victor Wembanyama accompanied by Dylan Harper and De’Aaron Fox. Lue is widely regarded as a top-three coach in the league. Redick impressed in his first year with the Lakers, finishing sixth in COY voting.
The Spurs are a year away from being a title contender. Johnson, though, has an opportunity to take this young core on their next step in his first full season at the helm. He is going to be in the Coach of the Year mix if San Antonio is a top-six seed in the West.
Lue is perhaps the league’s sharpest tactical mind, and he has had to make full use of that expertise with the flux he has often found the Clippers in. Los Angeles has been fifth or higher in the standings in four of his five seasons in charge. Voters are bound to give him extra credit if he navigates this aging roster to home-court advantage in the first round.
For Redick, the question is whether adding Deandre Ayton, Jake LaRavia, and Marcus Smart was enough of an offseason upgrade to build an elite team around Luka Dončić and LeBron James. Redick’s ingenuity helped the Lakers overachieve their defensive talent for a period last season. What if Redick somehow has the Lakers performing as a top-12 defense all year? It would be a major feat, even with the additions.
