I can’t decide if the biggest golf news of the weekend is Scottie Scheffler taking time off or Adam Sandler’s Happy Gilmore 2 now out on Netflix! It’s a pick ‘em for sure. And after taking home $3.1M and notching his fourth 1st place finish, who can blame Scheffler for taking a weekend to relax anyway. His absence is making some room for others at the top of the Leaderboard this weekend.
For those looking to wager on the 3M Open winner sans Scheffler at TPC Twin Cities in Blaine, MN know that the field is tight and the birdies are chirping. With the cut at -5, some great golfers have already gone home reminding all of us weekend warriors that the difference for earning big tour money comes down to every shot. No wonder golf is ripe for sport psychology coaches!
Here are some hot takes and tips to add to the data smart bettors are crunching!
Top 10 on the Leaderboard for Saturday, July 26, 2025
1 – Thorbjørn Olesen, Denmark, −14 (62‑66)
2- Jake Knapp, USA, −13 (64‑65)
T3 – Pierceson Coody, USA, −12 (65‑65)
T3 – Sam Stevens, USA, −12 (62‑68)
T5 – Matti Schmid, Germany, −11 (63‑68)
T5 – Chris Kirk, USA, -11 (64-67)
T5 – Takumi Kanaya, -11 (67-64)
10 players are tied at -10 going into Saturday including: Matt Wallace, Chris Gotterup, Wyndham Clark, William Mouw, Akshay Bhatia, Joel Dahmen, Alex Noren, Emiliano Grillo, Chad Ramey, Luke Clanton
Hot Takes & Betting Tips
A Good Bet: Thorbjørn Olesen (+450)
After shooting -9 on Thursday and a solid 66 on Friday despite a double-bogey on 15, Olesen dominated tee‑to‑green in both rounds and displayed resilience under pressure. At 35 years old, he’s chasing his first tour win, and he’s poised to earn it if he can channel his first-round birdie train.
Value Bet: Jake Knapp (+450)
With an eagle in Round 1 on 15, and Knapp’s clean, no-bogey 36 holes he is definitely in the hunt for a win. He’s booming off the tee (ranking top‑on‑tour this week), and his birdie machine metrics are elite ranking third on the tour with a 4.42 average. At just one back and the form to go low again, he could be your best value bet.
Personal Favorite: Sam Stevens (+1000)
Tied for 1st after Thursday at -9 for a 62, hitting solid approach shots and ice‑cold on the greens. If he can level set and prepare mentally for the weekend, he can definitely keep pace or even take control.
Steady Option: Pierceson Coody (+1100)
Back‑to‑back 65s show focus. A cool head, and credible iron/putting numbers leave room for a huge Saturday charge. At double‑digits under, if he goes low again he jumps into serious contention.
Bubble Bet: Matti Schmid (+2000)
Riding consistent iron play and a solid mentality to stay inside the FedEx Cup line. Needs to stay focused and let the bad shots go. He’s +360 for a top‑5 finish this weekend.
Sleeper: Alex Noren (+3000)
Noren may have shot -1 on Thursday, but he came back Friday on fire with nine birdies and a strong eagle-birdie-birdie-bogey finish and low score for the day at -9, 62. Keep an eye on his early play Saturday and consider a late day wager.
Where to Watch
CBS and Paramount+ will broadcast Round 3 starting at 2pm CST. You can tune in earlier on ESPN+ starting at 6:15am CST.
Closing thoughts
A Saturday take charge mindset is key: If Olesen stumbles or yields momentum, Knapp, Coody or Stevens are poised to pounce.
Final-round nerves: Knapp has a tendency to fade on Sunday historically, but he’s due for a full-round performance. Can he deliver is the question, and why you never bet what you cannot lose.
Join our newsletter for weekly updates, banter, and more.
:
:
:
: