Preseason college football polls are a great reminder that until teams actually take the field, it’s all conjecture and educated guesses. Every year we see teams rise and fall through the rankings, and some fall off a cliff entirely. Just ask 2024 Florida State.
With that in mind, and after surveying the general range of teams in preseason polls, I took a look at a few programs most likely to move sharply up or down once the games begin.
Overrated
Georgia Bulldogs
Georgia keeps showing up in the top five of preseason rankings, and it makes sense on the surface. This is a powerhouse program with NFL talent pouring out of it every spring. So why question it?
Because we genuinely have no idea what this year’s version of the Bulldogs will look like. Kirby Smart is working with a starting lineup that returns just seven players from last season, and that leaves a ton of uncertainty around fit, chemistry, and production.
The biggest question is at quarterback, where Gunner Stockton steps in as the new starter, replacing Carson Beck who transferred to Miami. Stockton has thrown fewer than 100 passes in his college career, with just 64 coming last season. There’s athletic upside there, and he has the ability to extend plays and create, but inexperience matters.
It especially matters when your offensive line is being rebuilt. Georgia will start four new linemen this year, and projecting O-line play at the college level is one of the hardest things to do. If this group doesn’t hold up and Stockton gets buried early, things could unravel fast.
Georgia may still contend, but there’s more risk here than most top five projections suggest.
Miami Hurricanes
I’m not a believer in Carson Beck to Miami. The Bulldogs, who just got knocked for their uncertainty at QB, still chose to move on from Beck after his season-ending elbow injury in 2024. Now he’s the presumed savior in Coral Gables, but I’m not buying it.
Most preseason rankings have Miami hovering around the top 10, but there’s a very real chance this turns into a Florida State type collapse. On paper, the defense looks better thanks to a wave of transfers. Ethan O’Connor and Charles Bentley are expected to step in as starters in the secondary, while linebacker Mohamed Toure is expected to make an immediate impact up front.
But are those additions enough? It doesn’t feel like it. Miami had a middling defense last season, and while pulling in a few 4 star transfers is helpful, it doesn’t magically turn this unit into a juggernaut. Plugging holes is one thing. Rebuilding a defense from the ground up is another.
And as for Beck, he hasn’t proven he can lead a team through a full season, let alone one under this much pressure. Unless he makes a massive leap and the defense gels overnight, this Miami team could drop well out of the top 10 by midseason.
Oklahoma Sooners
Is anyone’s seat hotter right now than Brent Venables? Probably not. Oklahoma has been trying to stay relevant, but the last few years suggest that Venables might not be the right fit.
He’s shaken up the offense big time in an effort to fix a unit that simply hasn’t produced consistently. That’s resulted in wasting what have been pretty solid defenses. The Sooners hope to solve that issue by bringing in quarterback John Mateer and offensive coordinator Ben Arbuckle from Washington State, where they were a productive duo.
But does that translate to Norman? Maybe, but penciling Oklahoma into the top 20 feels more like a nod to the program’s history than its present. The defense should still be respectable under Venables, but Mateer and Arbuckle feel more like a Band-Aid than a rebuild.
If things don’t click early, this team could slide right out of the top 25.
Underrated
Illinois Fighting Illini
When a team returns 16 starters from a 10 win season, that should count for something. Somehow, Illinois keeps landing in the 17-20 range in most polls, but this squad looks like it’s ready for more.
Quarterback Luke Altmyer brings poise and experience. He’s got multiple seasons under his belt and knows how to keep drives alive and the defense off the field. That matters in a league where a single blown series can flip a game. Altmyer fits this system and gives Illinois a legitimate identity on offense from day one.
One potential concern is that they didn’t make a splash in the transfer portal. James Thompson Jr. was the only incoming player rated 4 stars or higher, so there’s not a ton of new blood. But the continuity here is rare. And with so much uncertainty among other top 20 teams, the Illini have a real shot to break into the top 10 to 15 if they start hot.
A playoff berth isn’t out of the question if things break right.
Michigan Wolverines
Michigan under Sherrone Moore has been a bit of an enigma. There’s still talent, but the dominance from the Harbaugh years hasn’t quite carried over. That said, the second half of last season gave fans reason to believe.
Huge wins over Alabama and Ohio State reminded everyone that Michigan can still punch with the big boys. Now, the program is looking to reload with a new quarterback and offensive coordinator in Bryce Underwood and Chip Lindsey.
Underwood is the number one overall prospect in the 2025 class and a 5 star recruit with serious breakout potential. There’s still some debate about whether he’ll start immediately, but if he does, Michigan could rocket back up the rankings. Right now, they’re sitting in the 15 range in most polls. That looks more like cautious hedging than a fair projection.
If Underwood wins the job and plays well out of the gate, this team could climb into the top five before October.
Final Take
Preseason rankings are part science, part hype machine. The teams getting the most buzz now won’t all hold up once real football starts. The ones quietly building continuity and waiting for a breakout moment? Those are the teams to watch. September can’t come soon enough.
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