Week 1 of the 2025 NFL season is in the books, and it brought its share of surprises. The Chargers knocked off the Chiefs, the Steelers and Jets put up a high-scoring thriller, and the Colts delivered a stunning beatdown of the Dolphins.
For bettors, results like these can cause hesitation, but the opening week is always full of variance as teams shake off rust, settle into new schemes, and experiment with lineups. With that out of the way, Week 2 offers a better chance to find value.
Each week I will examine the moneyline, spread, and over/under markets, highlighting our best plays and tracking results along the way. Accountability matters, and there is no point in making picks if we are not keeping score.
Here are the best value bets for Week 2, plus one matchup that is better left alone.
Best Moneyline Bet of the Week – New England Patriots (+100 @ Miami Dolphins)
After the insane Week 1 results that Miami had against a (theoretically) terrible Indianapolis Colts team, they shouldn’t be favored against anybody. Tyreek Hill is angry, Tua looks like he’s lost the ability to pull the trigger on any read, and Mike McDaniel looks like a coach ready to hit the unemployment line.
While the Pats lost to the Raiders in Week 1, it was a tight game under a new head coach with a 2nd year QB learning a Josh McDaniels offense. While McDaniels’ head coaching tenures have been ugly, he is a complex and established OC, and will likely be able to unlock more out of Drake Maye each week.
The Pats have a lot of young, strong talent, and compared to Miami, they’re miles ahead in terms of execution and consistency. An even 1:1 return on this bet feels like a steal.
Best Spread Bet of the Week – Dallas Cowboys (-5.5 @ New York Giants)
The Dallas Cowboys played a mediocre-at-best offensive game last week against the defending Super Bowl champs, and they barely lost. The Giants are nowhere near the Eagles from a talent perspective.
The Cowboys have the firepower to light up New York in Week 2, as Dak looked great in Week 1 while his receivers struggled to hold onto the ball. If CeeDee Lamb and Jake Ferguson can brush off the tough start (and George Pickens can focus on playing football), this will be a blowout.
The Giants are mostly relying on Russell Wilson to Malik Nabers right now, and the Cowboys have two solid corners in Diggs and Bland to keep him doubled and locked down on either side of the field. This spread suggests a one-score game, but the Cowboys are in position to win this one comfortably.
Best O/U Bet of the Week – Denver Broncos @ Indianapolis Colts (under 42.5)
The Colts put up big numbers in Miami, but Denver is a whole different defensive situation, and if Daniel Jones can replicate Week 1 against this lineup, then the Giants need to officially apologize.
Denver and Indianapolis are both defensive-first teams working with limited talent on offense. Daniel Jones is the main stopping point for the Colts right now, though we could be in for a Sam Darnold-in-Minnesota resurgence, and the Broncos have Bo Nix trying to find his legs in Year 2 with an unsure run game and one of his top 2 receivers (Evan Engram) dealing with early season injury issues.
Pat Surtain will lock up Michael Pittman, and the Indy defense is a greater than the sum of its parts situation that will feast on a young QB. U42.5 is a low bar, but there realistically isn’t over 6 touchdowns worth of scoring to be found in this game.
Game to Avoid Entirely – Carolina Panthers @ Arizona Cardinals
Bryce Young looks like he has actually regressed, and the Cardinals barely slipped past a Saints team led by Spencer Rattler. Neither side inspired confidence in Week 1, and with these two facing each other, the range of outcomes is too wide to project.
Arizona is listed as the favorite, but it is impossible to feel comfortable investing in either side of this matchup. This is the type of 4 p.m. snoozer that is best left alone.
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