Week 4 was a solid showing for Three Picks and a Pass, finishing 2-1 and cashing both the moneyline and over/under selections. The lone miss came on the Falcons, who rediscovered their offense just as we bet against them. You can’t hit them all.
Week 5 brings a familiar dynamic: Vegas has sharpened its lines as teams start to reveal their true capabilities. Even so, there are still edges to be found. Here are this week’s picks, plus the one matchup worth avoiding.
Best Moneyline of the Week: Tampa Bay Buccaneers (+150 at Seattle Seahawks)
The Buccaneers have been the NFL’s cardiac kids, with all four of their games decided by a touchdown or less. Last week’s loss still featured a strong second-half push against a top-five opponent in the Eagles.
Seattle, also 3-1, has yet to beat a legitimate contender, with Pittsburgh being its toughest opponent so far. This moneyline is tight, but Tampa Bay has proven it can compete in close games, while Seattle has not truly been tested. If the Seahawks fall behind against one of the league’s better offenses, their attack isn’t built to rally. That makes the Bucs a value play here.
Best Spread of the Week: Minnesota Vikings (-3.5 at Cleveland Browns)
The Week 5 spread board isn’t particularly generous after several unexpected nail-biters last week. Still, Minnesota looks like the best option.
Cleveland just benched Joe Flacco in favor of rookie Dillon Gabriel, and the offense figures to take its lumps as Gabriel gets acclimated. The Vikings defense has been opportunistic, and Carson Wentz has exceeded expectations as the fill-in starter while J.J. McCarthy recovers from injury. If Wentz maintains that form, Minnesota should cover comfortably.
Best Over/Under of the Week: Broncos at Eagles (Over 43.5)
Both Denver and Philadelphia consistently top 20 points per game, and this matchup has all the ingredients for a high total. If the Broncos fall behind, Sean Payton is likely to lean heavily on Bo Nix through the air, creating opportunities for quick points on both sides.
The Eagles, meanwhile, nearly surrendered a late comeback to Tampa Bay last week and won’t risk easing off the gas. Whether it becomes a shootout or a one-sided blowout, this game should clear 44 points.
Game to Pass On: Texans at Ravens
Houston has been unpredictable all year, its offense swinging wildly depending on the play of its offensive line. Baltimore has its own issues, with Lamar Jackson doubtful after suffering a hamstring injury.
Even if Jackson suits up, he will likely be limited, and the Ravens have already been inconsistent. With too many unknowns on both sidelines, this is the matchup to stay away from.
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