Through three games, New England hasn’t looked anything like a playoff team in 2026. The Patriots made the Super Bowl last season, but that’s looking more like an anomaly than a return to past glory.
And being completely honest, the drop-off from 2025 was entirely predictable and might actually be a blessing in disguise.
New England wasn’t supposed to go 14-3 in 2025. Even though fans and general managers expect quick turnarounds, they don’t happen often in the NFL. And when they do, there are usually several factors that determine whether that success is sustainable or simply a flash in the pan.
A great example is the 2018 Los Angeles Rams. Several things broke their way that season, leading to a surprise Super Bowl appearance against the Patriots. In the Super Bowl, New England exposed how far Los Angeles was from being a true champion and gave the rest of the league a blueprint for how to stop Jared Goff and Sean McVay.
The Rams spent the next two seasons as a middling, slightly above-average team. After 2020, Los Angeles traded for Matthew Stafford, giving them the piece they needed to reset, become a true contender and win a Super Bowl.
The Patriots aren’t necessarily on that same track yet. They can still win with Drake Maye. But if they’re going to do that, they have to be honest with themselves about a few things.
Last Year Had More to Do With the Schedule
You can only beat the teams in front of you. And to New England’s credit, it did that last season. The Patriots went 14-3 in 2025 to earn the No. 2 seed in the AFC behind Denver. But they did it while beating just one team with a winning record all season.
The Patriots’ only victory over a team that won more than eight games came against the Bills. Otherwise, they went 3-1 against the AFC North (losing to the 10-7 Steelers), swept the Dolphins and Jets, feasted on the NFC South (which sent 8-9 Carolina to the playoffs) and added wins over Tennessee and the New York Giants.
Again, the Patriots could only beat who was on their schedule. It’s not New England’s fault that the Bills lost to the Dolphins and Falcons while the Patriots beat both. Those games ultimately proved to be the difference between New England hosting the Chargers and Buffalo traveling to Jacksonville.
The Patriots’ luck carried into the playoffs. Their path included Justin Herbert (0-3 in the playoffs), the Houston Texans (1-7 all-time away from Houston in the playoffs) and Jarrett Stidham (pressed into service when Bo Nix broke his ankle). In both home games, they welcomed a warm-weather team to Foxborough.
Against the Seahawks, their luck ran out and the game was never competitive. That’s OK, as New England wasn’t supposed to get to the Super Bowl in the first place. But then, the Patriots made a mistake. They bought into their stellar record and decided it was for real. Rather than view it as a product of their good fortune and continue building with youth, they shifted into win-now mode.
They sent Buffalo a fourth-rounder to move up three spots in the first round. They traded a fourth and sixth to the Chargers to move up eight spots in the second round. In their biggest move, they sent the Eagles their 2028 first-round pick and a 2027 fifth-rounder for A.J. Brown.
Those are moves a team makes when it’s a player or two away from a title. New England’s 2025 run made it seem that way, but it’s proving to be fool’s gold.
Drake Maye Isn’t Reading Things Properly
Even with the front office’s aggression, the Patriots could have made it work if Maye showed real progress. Instead, he seems to be taking a step back. Part of that is because he doesn’t have Brown, who sprained his ankle in Week 1 against the Seahawks. But more alarmingly, he is not making the right reads.
Against Jacksonville, Maye’s worst moment came near the end of the first half. Trailing 14-3, he forced a pass into the end zone on third-and-goal that Travis Hunter intercepted. Maye has to know New England needs to come away with points in that situation. Even if it’s only a field goal, the Patriots are getting the ball to start the second half.
It’s a different story near the end of the game. If you’re trying to will your team to a win and time is running out, you have to take chances. That’s not the case in the first half. If the read isn’t there, Maye needs to accept that, take the three points and make adjustments in the locker room.
Maye only threw eight interceptions last year. That might have been a product of the weak schedule. This year, New England has a first-place schedule, which means the Giants, Titans and Raiders have been replaced by the Seahawks, Jaguars and Steelers. The NFC South has been replaced by the NFC North, one of football’s strongest divisions, and the AFC West is deeper than the AFC North.
Better defenses are forcing Maye to make tougher decisions this year. He has to make progress, and so far, he isn’t.
The Patriots Are Still Inexperienced
New England led ESPN’s offseason rankings of the NFL’s best talent under 25 in 2026. The Patriots’ offensive line, when healthy, features three starters under 25. Maye himself is only 24.
Mistakes happen as young players learn how to win. New England got away with more of them last year because it faced a weaker schedule. That’s how slim the margin can be in the NFL: success often comes down to which mistakes you can get away with.
Expecting the Patriots to match last year’s success was always unrealistic. That’s why teams need to have a plan and stick with it, changing course only when absolutely necessary.
Vrabel’s Offseason Was a Distraction, Too
The Patriots also entered this season with questions that had nothing to do with their young roster. Mike Vrabel created an offseason distraction of his own.
Vrabel acknowledged in April that his actions away from football had created a distraction for his family, the Patriots organization and the team. He also admitted that those actions didn’t meet the standards he holds himself to and stepped away from the final day of the NFL Draft to begin counseling.
To his credit, Vrabel took responsibility for the situation, and several Patriots players publicly supported him. Hunter Henry and Robert Spillane both indicated that the situation had not affected the team’s focus on football.
But that doesn’t mean it’s irrelevant to what’s happening now.
Coaches constantly preach accountability, discipline and eliminating distractions, particularly with a young team. When the head coach becomes the source of one of the organization’s biggest offseason distractions, it’s fair to wonder whether that complicates the message.
That doesn’t mean Vrabel’s situation is responsible for New England’s slow start, and there’s no evidence that he has lost the locker room. But leadership matters, especially for an inexperienced team trying to build on unexpected success. The Patriots needed stability and focus this offseason. Instead, their head coach spent part of it answering questions about something that had nothing to do with football.
Why a Down Year Might Be Good for New England
There are a couple of reasons why a down year now could actually benefit New England in the long run. The first is that it gives Maye time to figure things out without the pressure of having to make another playoff run. Forcing that expectation on a young quarterback who is already struggling could make a difficult situation even worse.
The best thing New England can do is let Maye make his mistakes. The Patriots have already shown they’re not yet on the same level as healthy Jacksonville and Denver teams. They’re definitely not on Buffalo’s level either, and with Josh Allen now 30, the Bills have a much tighter window. Giving Maye time to work through his issues makes sense.
The second reason is that the Patriots own their first-round pick this year. They can use this season to identify their weaknesses and draft help for Maye in 2027, knowing they don’t have a first-rounder in 2028. If New England is going to struggle, it would much rather have it happen now, when it can benefit its long-term prospects. If those struggles come in 2027, they’re only going to help Philadelphia.
Nobody wants to endure a losing season in professional sports, especially in the NFL. But for the Patriots, a difficult year now might be exactly what they need to eventually reestablish themselves as a model franchise.
